Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input–output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the “do-nothing” option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.     

Numerical modeling of the Rideau Valley Watershed

Using the Mike11 modeling system by the Danish Hydraulic Institute, a detailed model of the Rideau Valley Watershed was constructed. It includes 532 km of rivers and lakes, 106 basins, 122 bridges and culverts, and 20 water control structures. The model was calibrated using measured streamflow data for a time period of 5 years; additional 5 years of data was used for validation. Various methods, both qualitative and quantitative, were used to evaluate the model performance. It was found that the model can simulate the hydrological response with a reasonable to high degree of accuracy. This model is now being used for various watershed management purposes, including flood forecasting, dam safety assessment, quantification of wetland functions, and derivation of design flows.     

Application of electrical and electromagnetic methods to study sedimentary covers in high mountain areas

The results of geophysical studies conducted with selected electrical and electromagnetic methods in the Kondratowa Valley in the Tatra Mountains (the Carpathian Mountains, Poland) are presented in the article. The surveys were performed with the following methods: electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), georadar (GPR) and conductivity meter (CM). The objective of the noninvasive geophysical measurements was to determine the thickness of the Quaternary postglacial sediments that fill the bottom of the valley and to designate the accumulation of boulders deposited on Quaternary sediments. The results of ERT surveys conducted along the axis of the valley allowed to determine the changeability of the thickness of the postglacial sediments and allowed to designate a few areas of occurrence of boulders. The ERT, GPR and CM surveys conducted across the valley allowed to designate with high accuracy the thickness of the accumulation of boulders sliding down the valley bottom from the couloirs surrounding the valley.     

Applying an optimized proxy-based workflow for fast history matching

History matching is still one of the main challenging parts of reservoir study especially in giant brown oil fields with lots of wells. In these cases, history matching with conventional manual technique needs many runs and takes months to get a match. In this work, an innovative approach was suggested for fast history matching in a real brown field. The workflow was employed based on an optimized proxy model for history matching of a field consisting of 14 active wells with multiple responses (which are production rate and pressure data) in the south part of Iran. The main important features of the proposed algorithm were defining a proxy model which is response surface method in which 21 model parameters were incorporated based on cubic centered face method. The proxy model was then optimized by one of the most famous algorithms which is genetic algorithm. Proxy model was successfully performed using 256 samples leading into p- value of 0.531 and R ² of 0.91 dataset. As a result, the proposed workflow and algorithm showed good and acceptable results for history matching of studied real model.     

Deterioration of Sediment Quality in Seagrass Meadows (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Posidonia oceanica</Emphasis>) Invaded by Macroalgae (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caulerpa</Emphasis> sp.)

Species of the macroalgae Caulerpa sp. are increasingly being observed in meadows of the endemic Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica, and in particular Caulerpa taxifolia, has been considered as an invasive species leading to seagrass decline. Studies have so far failed to reveal the underlying mechanisms of the success of the macroalgae, and here, we examine how biogeochemical changes of the environment associated to indigenous (Caulerpa prolifera) and non-indigenous (Caulerpa racemosa and C. taxifolia) species affect the habitat of P. oceanica. Two of the species (C. prolifera and C. racemosa) affect the sediment biogeochemical conditions by increasing organic matter pools, microbial activity, and sulfide pools of the sediments, and limited effects were found for C. taxifolia. Biomass of the macroalgae contributed to the extent of impacts, and high sulfide invasion into the seagrasses and regression of the meadow were pronounced at the location with the highest Caulerpa biomass. This suggests that Caulerpa invasion contributes to seagrass decline probably because Caulerpa thrives better than the seagrasses in the modified environment.     

Short timescale UV variability study in NGC 4151 using IUE data

IUE has made very successful long term and intense short time-scale monitoring spectroscopic study of NGC 4151, a Seyfert 1 galaxy for over nearly 18 years from its launch in 1978 to 1996. The long-term observations have been useful in understanding the complex relation between UV continuum and emission line variability Seyfert galaxies. In this paper, we present the results of our studies on the short-timescale intense monitoring campaign of NGC 4151 undertaken during December 1–15, 1993. A most intense monitoring observation of NGC 4151 was carried out by IUE in 1993, when the source was at its historical high flux state with a shortest interval of 70 min between two successive observations. We present our results on emission line and continuum variability amplitudes characterized by \(F_{\mathrm{var}}\) method. We found highest variability of nearly 8.3% at 1325 \(\AA \) continuum with a smallest amplitude of 4% at 2725 \(\AA \). The relative variability amplitudes (\(R_\mathrm{max}\)) have been found to be 1.372, 1.319, 1.302 and 1.182 at 1325, 1475, 1655 and 2725 \(\AA \) continuum respectively. The continuum and emission line variability characteristics obtained in the present analysis are in very good agreement with the results obtained by Edelson et al. (1996) and Crenshaw et al. (1996) from the analysis of the same observational spectral data. The large amplitude rapid variability characteristics obtained in our study have been attributed to the continuum reprocessing of X-rays absorbed by the material in the accretion disk as proposed by Shakura and Sunyaev (1973). The continuum and emission light curves have shown four distinct high amplitude events of flux maxima during the intense monitoring campaign of 15 days, providing a good limit on the amplitude of UV variability and the BLR size in low luminosity Seyfert galaxies and are useful for constraining the continuum emission models. The decreasing \(F_{\mathrm{var}}\) amplitude of UV continuum with respect to increasing wavelength obtained in the present study and consistent with similar observations by Edelson et al. (1996) and Crenshaw et al. (1996) is a significant result of the intense monitoring observations.