Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

基于WebGIS的气象综合显示系统改进与实现

针对基于WebGIS的气象信息显示和查询系统在应用中存在交互性差、响应速度慢、可扩展性不强等问题, 引入MapServer开源应用框架pMapper,对框架的技术路线进行探讨,并提出在pMapper框架下实现基于Ajax的WebGIS方案,最后通过修改源代码和开发嵌入式组件快速构建基于Ajax的WebGIS气象综合显示系统,实现原业务系统的升级。通过在实际业务中使用证明,改进后的系统可有效提高WebGIS的运行效率,可支持100~150用户并发;多数页面平均响应时间在3 s之内。基于pMapper框架开发WebGIS仅需要15~30 d,提高了开发效率,为WebGIS开发人员提供了一种快速构建WebGIS应用系统的新思路。     

Investigation of the sulfur speciation during chalcopyrite leaching by moderate thermophile Sulfobacillus thermosulfidooxidans

The surface sulfur speciation of chalcopyrite leached by moderately thermophilic Sulfobacillus thermosulfidooxidans was investigated by employing scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and sulfur K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy (XANES), accompanying with the leaching behavior elucidation. Leaching experiment showed that there was an optimum range of the redox potential for chalcopyrite dissolution. Leaching products were found accumulating during the leaching process, which might be jarosite according to the XRD analysis. The sulfur K-edge spectra indicated that chalcocite might be the intermediate sulfur compound under a critical redox potential, which might explain the existence of optimum range of the redox potential and provide an evidence for the two-step leaching model of chalcopyrite at low Eh. In addition, the results of sulfur K-edge spectra showed jarosite would accumulate on mineral surface, which might be the main component of the passivation layer.     

Modeling and representation for earthquake emergency response knowledge: perspective for working with geo-ontology

Earthquake emergency response is one of the three earthquake disaster mitigation work systems in China, already achieving good results in some earthquake disaster mitigation situations. Earthquake emergency plans and emergency command systems are among the most important research and operations components of emergency response. These components commonly come with challenges, such as the pertinence of emergency commands and the operability of the countermeasures to be improved. The promise for solving this problem resides with applying knowledge that aids intelligence creation for decision-making. In this paper, we put forward a conceptual model of knowledge for earthquake disaster emergency response (EDER); compositions of EDER knowledge are introduced within architecture. A modeling method incorporating geo-ontology is used to build basic modeling primitives. Geo-ontology serves to represent geospatial characteristics of the EDER knowledge and addresses a need for semantic interoperability in the modeling process. A decision problem framework and a case study have been used as theoretical framework and an application test, respectively, to evaluate the EDER knowledge architecture and models. The EDER knowledge model provides a foundation for intelligent emergency response that helps solve knowledge problems to improve earthquake disaster response.     

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Relationships between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of the Asian-Western Pacific Summer Monsoon Hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1（m）

Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.     

东准造山带原泥盆系的形成时代及源区：碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学证据

新疆东准地区晚古生代地层出露广泛,其沉积时限的精确限定对理解中亚造山带的增生和拼贴过程、确立该地区构造框架及油气开发具有深远意义。然而,目前的研究主要集中于岩浆岩方面,对于晚古生代地层时代及其空间展布的研究则相对缺乏,特别是石炭系和泥盆系沉积地层标定较为模糊。为此,本文选取了3个原泥盆系砂岩进行了细致的野外剖面测制、岩石学观测和碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学分析。研究显示：原泥盆纪砂岩的最年轻碎屑锆石年龄为346～312 Ma,碎屑锆石年龄谱图分为：380～310 Ma（晚泥盆世-早石炭世,71.8%）、445～385 Ma（志留纪-早-中泥盆世,11.7%）、480～450 Ma（奥陶纪,3.9%）、540～485 Ma（寒武纪,4.5%）和前寒武纪年龄段（8.1%）,碎屑锆石年龄谱图区域上具有由南向北、由西向东呈简单化趋势且晚古生代年龄比重增加。结合该区岩浆岩年代学研究成果,将研究区原泥盆系沉积时代重新厘定到晚石炭系早-中期,认为东准地区的碰撞拼贴时间应发生于晚石炭世,并非是不同期次碰撞拼贴之产物。     

黄河流域煤炭富集区煤炭水足迹演变及驱动效应研究

煤炭与水资源相互影响和制约,如何评价煤炭耗水的演变趋势及其影响机制对煤炭和水资源进行协同管理具有重要意义。基于国际标准的煤炭水足迹测算模型,分析2000—2017年黄河流域煤炭富集区——晋陕蒙煤炭水足迹的时空演变趋势,构建煤炭水足迹压力指数评价区域煤炭和水资源的匹配关系,并运用LMDI模型定量分析煤炭水足迹的驱动效应。结论如下：① 煤炭水足迹总量在研究期内呈增长趋势,主要以原煤和火力发电水足迹为主,山西和内蒙古煤炭水足迹最高,陕西最低。② 研究区整体煤炭水足迹压力指数逐渐增大,由煤–水关系缓和型逐渐演变为煤–水关系制约型,从空间分异来看,山西最大,研究期内均属于煤–水紧张型,陕西次之,内蒙古最小,均由煤–水关系缓和型演变为煤–水关系制约型。③ 影响煤炭水足迹的主要驱动因素是经济效应和技术效应,前者对煤炭水足迹的影响逐渐增强,后者对煤炭水足迹压力的影响先增强后减弱,各驱动效应空间分异明显。研究结果可为煤炭富集区煤炭和水资源可持续利用提供决策参考,为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的资源管理提供决策支持。     

Response of runoff to climate change in the area of runoff yield in upstream Shiyang River Basin,Northwest China: A case study of the Xiying River

The objective of this study was to analyze the response of runoff in the area of runoff yield of the upstream Shiyang River basin to climate change and to promote sustainable development of regional water resources and ecological environment. As the biggest tributary of the Shiyang River, Xiying River is the only hydrological station (Jiutiaoling) that has provincial natural river and can achieve long time series monitoring data in the basin. The data obtained from this station is representative of natural conditions because it has little human activites. This study built a regression model through identifying the characteristics of runoff and climate change by using Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, cumulative anomaly, and correlation analysis. The results show that the average annual runoff is 320.6 million m³/a with the coefficient of variation of 0.18 and shows slightly decrease during 1956–2020. It has a significant positive correlation the average annual precipitation (P<0.01). Runoff is sensitive to climate change, and the climate has becoming warm and wet and annual runoff has entering wet period from 2003. Compared to the earlier period (1955–2000), the increases of average annual temperature, precipitation and runoff in recent two decades were 15%, 9.3%, and 7.8%, respectively. Runoff in the Shiyang River is affected by temperature and precipitation among climate factors, and the simulation results of the runoff-climate response model (R = 0.0052P ? 0.1589T + 2.373) indicate that higher temperature leads to a weakening of the ecological regulation of surface runoff in the flow-producing area.     

Revisiting Force Model Error Modeling in GRACE Gravity Field Recovery

Surveys in Geophysics - The gravity field recovery from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission data is contaminated by both observation noise and dynamic force errors, especially...