冀北承德地区张营子-六沟走滑断层及其构造意义

笔者等运用构造解析的方法,在对冀北承德县一带的研究中鉴别出一条走向为北北西到北西向的右行走滑断层。断层将沿线太古宙古老变质岩、元古宇蓟县系、青白口系右行错断,它也将一个早期形成的短轴背斜构造带右行错断。位移距离沿断层向南南东方向逐渐减小,由15～16km逐渐减小到12～13km。断层截止于平泉—古北口断裂南侧元古宙逆冲岩片前缘,并将逆冲岩片南侧寒武系和奥陶系错动形成右行不对称牵引褶皱。由于断层使下三叠统丁家沟组变形而中三叠统胡杖子组却自西向东稳定延伸,所以笔者等认为断层形成的时代为早三叠世末。该走滑断层的存在表明,燕山板内造山带早期逆冲构造通过一些横向走滑断层的调节,呈板条状向南逆冲的。另外,前人所确定的“承德推覆体”上的元古宇与实际上在中三叠世以前与其东南侧的元古宇是连为一体的,由于北北西向右行走滑断层的错动使它们被右行错开。     

Impacts of climate change on glacial water resources and hydrological cycles in the Yangtze River source region, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China: A Progress Report

The Yangtze River Source Region has an area of 137,704 km2.Its mean annual runoff of 12.52 billion m3,which was recorded by the Chumda Hydrological Station in 1961-2000,accounts for only 0.13 percent of the Yangtze River’s total annual streamflow.The extensive rivers,lakes,wetlands,glaciers,snow fields,and permafrost of the Yangtze River Source Region,as well as the region’s vast alpine grasslands,play a critical role in storing and regulating the flow of water not only in the upper Yangtze River watershed of Qinghai,Sichuan,the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) (Tibet) and Yunnan,but also throughout the entire lower Yangtze River basin.Climate change has been the dominant factor in recent fluctuation in the volume of the Yangtze River Source Region’s glacier resources.The Chumda Hydrological Station on the lower Tongtian River has registered a mean annual glacial meltwater of 1.13 billion m3 for the period 1961-2000,makes up 9 percent of the total annual runoff.Glacial meltwater makes up a significant percentage of streamflow in the Yangtze River Source Region,the major rivers of the upper Yangtze River Source Region:the Togto,Dam Chu,Garchu,and Bi Chu (Bu Chu) rivers all originate at large glaciers along the Tanggula Range.Glaciers in the Yangtze River Source Region are typical continental-type glaciers with most glacial meltwater flow occurring June-August;the close correlation between June-August river flows and temperature illustrates the important role of glacial meltwater in feeding rivers.Glaciers in the source region have undergone a long period of rapid ablation beginning in 1993.Examination of flow and temperature data for the 1961-2000 period shows that the annual melting period for glacial ice,snow,and frozen ground in the Yangtze River Source Region now begins earlier because of increasing spring temperatures,resulting in the reduction of summer flood season peak runoffs;meanwhile,increased rates of glacier ablation have resulted in more uneven annual distribution of runoff in the source region.T     

Tectonics and Seismicity of the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon Region

The Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon region is located in the frontal zone of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where neo-tectonics and seismicity are intensive and closely related to each other. In the region, two sets of fault structures have developed, striking NNE-NE and NWW-NW, respectively. Investigation shows that they differ markedly in terms of scope, property, active times and intensity. The NWW-NW trending faults are large in size, and most are thrust and thrust strike-slip faults, formed in earlier times. The NEE-NE-strike faults are relatively small in size individually, with concentrated distribution, constituting the NNE-trending shear extensional fault zone, which is relatively younger with evident late Quaternary activities. Strong earthquakes occur mainly in the areas or zones of intensive differential movement of the Himalayas, e.g. along the deep and large fault zones around the crustal blocks. Most earthquakes of M≥7.0 are closely related to tectonics, where large-scale Holocene active faults are distributed with complicated fault geometry, or the faults of multiple directions intersect. Among them, earthquakes of M≥7.5 have occurred on the NW and NE-trending faults with a greater strike-slip component in the fault tectonic zones.     

An exceptionally strengthened East Asian summer monsoon event between 19.9 and 17.1 ka BP recorded in a Hulu stalagmite

A stalagmite-based isotope record (No. H82) from Nanjing Hulu Cave, spanning from 16.5 to 10.3 ka BP, provided strong evidence for a coherence relation between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the North Atlantic climates on millennial time scales. Here we extend the high-resolution δ 18O time series back to 22.1 ka BP with additional 7 230Th dates and 573 stable isotope measurements on the lower part of that sample. The new record with a decadal resolution, piecing together with the previous data, p...     

2010年广西庞凌河流域一次地震事件的灾害过程及其成因*

利用现场调查资料重组了2010年3月6日庞凌河流域中的一次陷落地震的灾害过程,并结合现有的水文地质资料和地震记录探讨了该次事件的成因。结果表明:该次事件的地下水异常点均位于龙临—头布暗河系统中,个别异常点位于断裂上,断裂内部的岩溶物质相对疏松。地震波的分析结果表明本次地震事件具有陷落地震的特征。地震发生在前,地下水异常发生在后。据此认为,本次事件可能是一次陷落地震,陷落的岩溶不仅造成了地震,还堵塞了地下河,进而造成了地下水异常。     

软土地区地铁车站地震响应分析

以天津市地铁3号线典型车站结构为研究对象,通过ANSYS有限元软件建立合理的软土地区土—地下结构相互作用模型,选用天津宁河、Taft波及天津人工波,分析该模型的频遇地震及罕遇地震作用效应。分析结果表明：不同地震波作用下位移响应幅值接近,且最大值出现时刻一致,位移变形均满足规范要求;天津宁河波作用下内力响应明显大于其他地震波的作用效应,且地铁车站结构抗震薄弱环节在框架底层中柱柱底位置。该研究成果可为天津市软土地区地铁车站结构的抗震设计提供参考。     

甘东南4井水温资料在汶川M_S8.0地震前后的异常变化特征分析

较为系统地分析了甘东南成县、樊坝、清水温泉、两水4口水温井自2007年以来的水温观测数据,发现在2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震前后4口水温井资料都出现了不同程度的前兆异常变化,但前兆异常信息大部分淹没在趋势上升的背景中。为了更好地提取前兆异常信息,文中采用了流体资料处理时常用的差分法、变差率法、从属函数法、趋势速率法等前兆异常信息提取方法,对数据进行了处理,并分析了4井水温前兆异常变化特征。     

河北省县域贫困度多维评估

在京津冀加快区域经济一体化的背景下,河北省出现环绕京津地区的贫困带引起了学界与公众的普遍关注。目前国内贫困县的设定往往以经济指标为唯一度量标准,本文在经济维度基础上增加社会维度（代表人类贫困）和自然维度（代表自然贫困）两方面评价指标,构建县域贫困度多维评价指标体系,对河北省136 个县的贫困状况分别进行经济单维度与经济—社会—自然三维评估,并基于SOFM网络将全省县域贫困度划分为五级,与河北省现有各类贫困县分布进行对比。结果表明,基于经济单维度与经济—社会—自然多维度评估的聚类分析得到的高贫困度县域均与现有贫困县有很好的对应,与河北省贫困县分布现状基本吻合;由于经济—社会—自然的多维度贫困度评估综合考虑了贫困现状及其潜在可能性,评估更加全面和深入。基于自然维度的潜在贫困度对多维贫困度的影响分析表明：环京津地区的贫困现状比较严重、且潜在贫困程度高,应积极依托京津,承接产业转移。而在冀中南地区,尽管贫困现状较为严重,但潜在贫困程度较低,因其较易脱贫而容易被忽视;同时,还存在大量非贫困县转化为贫困县的可能性;应进一步加强对该地区贫困问题的关注,分类扶贫、防治结合、区域联动,促进京津冀区域一体化、社会财富同步增长。     

850hPa东高西低型低空环流与江西降水的关系

利用常规高空探测资料,分析了2000—2012年4—6月850 hPa层位势高度差异常(上海宝山或大陈岛站850 hPa层位势高度值比贵阳站大7 gpm或以上)形势下低空环流与江西降水的关系。结果表明,这种形势下,700 hPa高度层上均有西南低涡活动。近50%的个例江西省上空850 hPa层出现风速16 m/s以上的低空西南急流,约40%的个例有切变线活动;若去除850 hPa无切变线影响和切变线出现较晚的情形,江西省出现10站以上暴雨过程的比例为85.7%。     

厄尔尼诺衰减年东亚夏季大气环流和降水异常的耦合模式后报试验

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)新一代耦合气候模式(FGOALS)进行了气候异常季节后报试验,通过对1982—2005年7个个例的分析,探讨了厄尔尼诺衰减年夏季东亚大气环流和降水异常发生的物理机制。分析结果表明:FGOALS可以模拟出厄尔尼诺衰减年夏季相关气候场的异常态特征,表现为在西北太平洋为负海温异常,在热带印度洋为正海温异常,从而导致西北太平洋地区大气中低层异常反气旋环流的维持,其反气旋的西南部及西部的偏南及西南气流造成中国长江中下游地区降水的异常增多。在提前3—9个月的预测模拟中,模式可以模拟出气候场的异常演变,随着预测时间的延长,产生局地耦合的西北太平洋海表温度异常信号变弱,使得模拟出的西北太平洋反气旋异常偏弱、中心东移,从而导致影响东亚降水的气候场的异常变弱,降水异常区偏东。模拟结果也揭示出,西北太平洋海表温度负异常是厄尔尼诺异常信号的转换模态,并且,由于局地海-气相互作用,热带海温异常信号可以持续到第2年夏季,从而引起东亚大气环流和降水异常。对于东亚降水的季节预测出现误差可能是模式对ENSO的模拟偏差造成的,随着预测时间延长,模式模拟的厄尔尼诺信号偏弱,这将使得海表温度异常偏弱,同时相关物理场的异常响应也减弱。