Storms, Investor Decisions, and the Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise

Past research on the economic impacts of aclimate-induced sea level rise has been based on thegradual erosion of the shoreline, and humanadaptation. Erosion which is accelerated by sea levelrise may also increase the vulnerability to stormdamage by decreasing the distance between the shoreand structures, and by eroding protective coastalfeatures (dunes). We present methods of assessingthis storm damage in coastal regions where structuralprotection is not pursued. Starting from the boundingcases of no foresight and perfectforesight of Yohe et al. (1996), we use adisaggregated analysis which models the random natureof storms, and models market valuation and privateinvestor decisions dynamically. Using data from theNational Flood Insurance Program and a hypotheticalcommunity, we estimate that although the total stormdamage can be large, the increase in storm damageattributable to sea level rise is small (<5% oftotal sea level rise damages). These damages,however, could become more significant under otherreasonable assumptions or where dune erosion increasesstorm damage.     

Expert views on biodiversity conservation in an era of climate change

Adapting conservation policy to the impacts of climate change has emerged as a central and unresolved challenge. In this paper, we report on the results of 21 in-depth interviews with biodiversity and climate change adaptation experts on their views of the implications of climate change for conservation policy. We find a diversity of views across a set of topics that included: changing conservation objectives, conservation triage and its criteria, increased management interventions in protected areas, the role of uncertainty in decision-making, and evolving standards of conservation success. Notably, our findings reveal active consideration among experts with some more controversial elements of policy adaptation (including the role of disturbance in facilitating species transitions, and changing standards of conservation success), despite a comparative silence on these topics in the published literature. Implications of these findings are discussed with respect to: (a) identifying future research and integration needs and (b) providing insight into the process of policy adaptation in the context of biodiversity conservation.     

Cation Exchange Capacity of Phosphoric Acid and Lime Stabilized Montmorillonitic and Kaolinitic Soils

Studies on the chemically stabilized soils have shown that the effectiveness of treatment is largely dependent on soil??s natural environment. In this research, the time-dependent changes induced in permanent cation exchange capacity of lime and phosphoric acid treated soils, comprised mainly of montmorillonite and kaolinite minerals, were investigated. Also, in order to study the relationship between the exchange capacity and acidity/alkalinity of pore water, pH measurements were performed on cured samples. Based on the collected data, it was found that the pH of stabilized soils showed a tendency for reaching soil??s natural pH with increasing curing time. In addition, the increase in number of broken bonds around the edges of soil particles and also the formation of cementitious compounds that acquired negative charges contributed to achieving higher CEC_p values at longer curing periods. Nevertheless, the kaolinite mineral with pH-dependent structural properties, showed a rather limited behavior in the acidic medium. From engineering point of view, the lime treated samples revealed the highest degree of improvement with an approximately ten-fold strength increase in comparison to the natural soil over an 8?months curing period.     

Prediction of river flow using hybrid neuro-fuzzy models

The complex nature of hydrological phenomena, like rainfall and river flow, causes some limitations for some admired soft computing models in order to predict the phenomenon. Evolutionary algorithms (EA) are novel methods that used to cover the weaknesses of the classic training algorithms, such as trapping in local optima, poor performance in networks with large parameters, over-fitting, and etc. In this study, some evolutionary algorithms, including genetic algorithm (GA), ant colony optimization for continuous domain (ACO_R), and particle swarm optimization (PSO), have been used to train adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in order to predict river flow. For this purpose, classic and hybrid ANFIS models were trained using river flow data obtained from upstream stations to predict 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day ahead river flow of downstream station. The best inputs were selected using correlation coefficient and a sensitivity analysis test (cosine amplitude). The results showed that PSO improved the performance of classic ANFIS in all the periods such that the averages of coefficient of determination, R², root mean square error, RMSE (m³/s), mean absolute relative error, MARE, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were improved up to 0.19, 0.30, 43.8, and 0.13%, respectively. Classic ANFIS was only capable to predict river flow in 1-day ahead while EA improved this ability to 5-day ahead. Cosine amplitude method was recognized as an appropriate sensitivity analysis method in order to select the best inputs.     

Utilization of bituminous limestone ash from EL-Lajjun area in production of lightweight Masonry block

The following work aims at minimizing the environmental impact of the solid wastes (ash) that is produced after the utilization of the bituminous limestone in thermal power stations and/or retorting processes. The laboratory tests have been selected with respect to construction needs and possible post construction conditions. Utilization of the various types of ash in the production of lightweight concrete block has revealed optimum results. The compressive strength of various ash–glass sand mixes has ranged between 19 and 76 kg/cm² at 28 days. The compressive strength of ash–tuff mixes has ranged between 54 and 63 kg/cm² at 28 days. Ultra light mixtures using ash–polyester with a density of 0.88 kg/m³ and a compressive strength of 21 kg/cm² at 28 days are produced at normal room curing temperature without the use of ordinary Portland cement. The high alkalinity of El-Lajjun ash is considered a disadvantage when utilized in normal concrete mixes for structural purposes. Ash only can be mixed with aggregates to produce lean concrete for blinding purposes for use in foundations.     

A multifractal cross-correlation investigation into sensitivity and dependence of meteorological and hydrological droughts on precipitation and temperature

Natural Hazards - Several studies have been conducted on droughts, precipitation, and temperature, whereas none have addressed the underlying relationship between nonlinear dynamic properties and...     

Petrogenesis and geochronology of Mishao peraluminous I-type granites,Shalair valley area,NE Iraq

The Shalair area, which is located in northeastern Iraq, is considered to be part of the northern Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone (SaSZ) and contains several granitoid bodies. One of these bodies, the Mishao porphyritic-granite (MG), was crystallized at 111.6?±?2.4 Ma, based on its zircon U-Pb age. Its geochemical characteristics suggest that the MG rocks are calc-alkaline, peraluminous, I-type granites with microgranular mafic enclaves. They are enriched in SiO₂, Na₂O, Al₂O₃ and Zr and depleted in MgO, Fe₂O₃, Nb and Ti; in contrast, the enclave sample records lower SiO₂ content and higher contents of MgO and Fe₂O₃. These rocks show an enrichment of LREE relative to HREE, and pronounced negative Eu anomalies implying feldspar fractionation. The isotopic and geochemical characteristics of the MG samples suggest that these rocks are evolved through fractional crystallization. In the La/Nb-Nb diagram and Sm/Nd ratios, the MG rocks and the enclave samples exhibit strong evidence for crustal contamination. The MG rocks record high initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70625–0.70740) and low ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd(i) (0.51235–0.51274) ratios. These Sr-Nd isotopic data, combined with the presence of high Th/U and Rb/Sr ratios and significant depletions of Nb, Ta and Ti, show a relation of these bodies to an active continental margin regime. Based on the age and geochemical data of the MG, this study presents new information about the occurrence of Middle Cretaceous magmatic activities, which are related to the active continental margins in the SaSZ that run parallel to the Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt.     

Simulating urban growth under planning policies through parcel-based cellular automata (ParCA) model

In recent decades, the cellular automata model, among the urban development prediction models, has been applied considerably. Studies show that the output of conventional cellular automata models is sensitive to cell size and neighborhood structure, and varies with changes in the size of these parameters. To solve this problem, vector-based cellular automata models have been introduced which have overcome the mentioned limitations and presented better results. The aim of this study was to present a parcel-based cellular automata (ParCA) model for simulating urban growth under planning policies. In this model, undeveloped areas are first subdivided into smaller parcels, based on some geometric parameters; then, neighborhood effect of parcels is defined in a radial structure, based on a weighted function of distance, area, land-use, and service level of irregular cadastral parcels. After that, neighborhood effect is evaluated using three components, including compactness, dependency and compatibility. The presented model was implemented and analyzed using data from municipal region 22 of Tehran. The obtained results indicated the high ability of ParCA model in allocating various land-uses to parcels in the appropriateness of the layout of different land-uses. This model can be used in decision-making and urban land-use planning activities, since it provides the possibility of allocating different urban land-use types and assessing different urban-growth scenarios.     

Evidence for Mountain Glacier Changes in Semi-arid Environments based on Remote Sensing Data

Countries like Iran, which are geographically situated in a rather arid and warm regions, will suffer more from global warming than countries located in humid and semi-humid regions. In such environments, analyzing the variations of mountain glaciers can reveal several aspects of climate change patterns more efficiently in comparison to the other geo-indicators. The present study reports some evidence of changes for Alamkouh glacier between 1955 and 2010 based on several mediums to high-resolution satellite images. Considering that most part of the Alamkouh glacier is covered by debris and delineating its actual area is not possible, planimetric change analysis was restricted to the clean-ice regions. The object-oriented classification approach was used to estimate the clean ice areas. This technique takes into account the shapes of the features along with their spectral patterns. Results revealed that clean ice regions of Alamkouh glacier shrank since 1955 with an overall area reduction of about 59 %. Although the general observed trend is a clean ice area reduction, some advancement was detected over the period from 2000 to 2010. During 1992–2000, the maximum reduction in the clean ice area was observed (0.08 km².a^?1). However, clean ice area of the case study has partially increased about 0.028 km².a^?1 from 2000 to 2010. Supra-glacial lake change analysis illustrated that at the surface of the glacier, lakes have been enlarged remarkably in the past 55 years (about 4.75 times greater). In addition, clean ice area and the surface area of supra-glacial lakes oscillated in compliance with each other. The findings revealed that the maximum expansion of supra-glacial lake occurred during 1992–2000, which demonstrate the glacier maximum reduction during this period. This shrinkage in the Alamkouh glacier caused an extensive glacial lake outburst flood in Jun 2011. The results of this study agree with documented changes in other mountain glaciers located in arid and semi-arid environments and they also confirm the application of mountain glaciers in climate variations monitoring over such regions.