Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 10⁹ m³) and Alavian (6 × 10⁷ m³). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with ?1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and ?6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average ?7% yearly and ?13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by ?10% on average at half century and ?13% at the end of century, with streamflows ?14% yearly and ?18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.     

Seismic performance and damage incurred by monolithic concrete self-centering rocking walls under the effect of axial stress ratio

Self-centering rocking walls offer the possibility of minimizing repair costs and downtimes, and also nullify the residual drift after seismic events, thanks to their self-centering properties. In this paper, the effect of axial stress ratio on the behavior of monolithic self-centering rocking walls is investigated by utilizing a developed finite element model. To verify the validity of the finite element model, results and observed damage in the model are compared with those of a full-scale wall test. The axial stress ratio is varied from 0.024 to 0.30 while keeping the other structural parameters constant. For qualitative damage evaluation, the observed damage in the model compared with expected damage states of desired performance levels. In order to evaluate the incurred damage quantitatively, the amount of crushing and damage in the wall is calculated by utilizing several ratios (crushing ratio and damage ratio). Furthermore, seismic response factors (i.e., μ, R and C_d) are calculated for different axial stress ratio values. The obtained results showed that, in order to satisfy the requirements of desired performance levels, the maximum axial stress ratio should be approximately within the range of 0.10–0.15. In addition, the maximum overall damage ratio and crushing ratio are suggested to be less than 5%. For axial stress ratio higher than 0.15, the flag-shaped pattern of hysteresis curves completely disappeared and the variation of displacement ductility is less sensitive to axial stress ratio. Considering the maximum axial stress ratio limited to 0.150, values of 4 and 3.5 are conservatively proposed as a period-independent response modification factor and displacement modification factor of the investigated structural wall, respectively.     

Evaluation of the real-time TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation analysis for an operational flood prediction system in Nzoia Basin,Lake Victoria,Africa

Many researchers seek to take advantage of the recently available and virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-based rainfall information as an alternative and supplement to the ground-based observations in order to implement a cost-effective flood prediction in many under-gauged regions around the world. Recently, NASA Applied Science Program has partnered with USAID and African-RCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system, SERVIR-Africa. The ultimate goal of the project is to build up disaster management capacity in East Africa by providing local governmental officials and international aid organizations a practical decision-support tool in order to better assess emerging flood impacts and to quantify spatial extent of flood risk, as well as to respond to such flood emergencies more expediently. The objective of this article is to evaluate the applicability of integrating NASA’s standard satellite precipitation product with a flood prediction model for disaster management in Nzoia, sub-basin of Lake Victoria, Africa. This research first evaluated the TMPA real-time rainfall data against gauged rainfall data from the year 2002 through 2006. Then, the gridded Xinanjiang Model was calibrated to Nzoia basin for period of 1985–2006. Benchmark streamflow simulations were produced with the calibrated hydrological model using the rain gauge and observed streamflow data. Afterward, continuous discharge predictions forced by TMPA 3B42RT real-time data from 2002 through 2006 were simulated, and acceptable results were obtained in comparison with the benchmark performance according to the designated statistic indices such as bias ratio (20%) and NSCE (0.67). Moreover, it is identified that the flood prediction results were improved with systematically bias-corrected TMPA rainfall data with less bias (3.6%) and higher NSCE (0.71). Although the results justify to suggest to us that TMPA real-time data can be acceptably used to drive hydrological models for flood prediction purpose in Nzoia basin, continuous progress in space-borne rainfall estimation technology toward higher accuracy and higher spatial resolution is highly appreciated. Finally, it is also highly recommended that to increase flood forecasting lead time, more reliable and more accurate short- or medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts is a must.     

Stratigraphic and geochemical study of the organic-rich black shales in the Tarcău Nappe of the Moldavidian Domain (Carpathian Chain,Romania)

An integrated stratigraphic analysis has been made of the Tarcău Nappe (Moldavidian Domain, Eastern Romanian Carpathians), coupled with a geochemical study of organic-rich beds. Two Main Sequence Boundaries (Early Oligocene and near to the Oligocene–Aquitanian boundary, respectively) divide the sedimentary record into three depositional sequences. The sedimentation occurred in the central area of a basin supplied by different and opposite sources. The high amount of siliciclastics at the beginning of the Miocene marks the activation of the “foredeep stage”. The successions studied are younger than previously thought and they more accurately date the deformation of the different Miocene phases affecting the Moldavidian Basin. The intervals with black shales identified are related to two main separate anoxic episodes with an age not older than Late Rupelian and not before Late Chattian. The most important organic-rich beds correspond to the Lower Menilites, Bituminous Marls and Lower Dysodilic Shales Members (Interval 2). These constitute a good potential source rock for petroleum, with homogeneous Type II oil-prone organic matter, highly lipidic and thermally immature. The deposition of black shales has been interpreted as occurring within a deep, periodically isolated and tectonically controlled basin.     

Retention studies of chromium (VI) from aqueous solution on the surface of a novel carbonaceous material

In the present study, the retention capacity of carbonaceous material obtained from the diesel engine exhaust mufflers for Cr(VI) removal has been investigated. The physicochemical properties such as density, pH of aqueous slurry, pH at point of zero charge, ash content, moisture content, volatile matter, surface area, scanning electron microscopy and electron dispersive spectroscopy of the carbonaceous material were determined. The capacity of adsorbent for removal of Cr(VI) from aqueous solution was observed under different experimental condition like contact time, initial concentration of metal ions, pH and temperatures on the adsorption capacity of the adsorbent. Maximum adsorption of Cr(VI) ions was found at low pH. The adsorption process was found to follow second-order kinetics. The rate constant was evaluated at different temperatures along with other thermodynamic parameters like activation energy, Gibbs free energy change, enthalpy change and entropy change. Both Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms were used to describe the adsorption equilibrium of carbonaceous material at different temperatures. Langmuir isotherm shows better fit than Freundlich isotherm at given conditions. The result shows that low-cost carbonaceous material from diesel engine exhaust mufflers can be efficiently used for wastewater treatment containing Cr(VI) ions.     

Relationship between geo-structural evolution and development of karstic systems in the culminating area of Ouarsenis (West Algeria)

The Ouarsenis area is one of the most developed karstic systems of Algeria. It is a karst reservoir drinking water with a population of more than 50,000 people taking fully benefit from it. To understand the development of this karstic system, the local tectonic history of the four main mountain ranges of this culminating area (Ouarsenis) has been analyzed. Although previously identified primarily Cenozoic tectonic activities have been observed, a set of NW-SE joints intersecting the Jurassic limestone has been associated to a post-nappes tectonic events. Moreover, numerous joint sets oriented NNE/SSW have been identified almost over the entire culminating area. These joints are the direct consequence of the following stress history: (i) a NW/SE shortening responsible for a major overlap and the first fold (P1) phase, (ii) a second NNE/SSW shortening stage responsible for the second folding (P2) phase associated with 70° N sinistral strike-slip trend, (iii) a WNW/ESE extension phase resulting from the change of σ ₃ stress vertical axis, and (iv) a shearing stress creating a 120° N sinistral strike-slip fault. Only the late phases are responsible of the development of joints, which have been karstified later on. Indeed, significant families of karstified joints, i.e., 20° and 70° N have been found. These joints are related to the extensional and shearing modes, respectively, and linked to a particular in situ karstogenesis. Moreover, this study suggests an ancient establishment of the karstic systems in the Ouarsenis region in at least two stages: pre-figured and activated behaviors during the Cenozoic.     

Evaluation of TMPA satellite-based research and real-time rainfall estimates during six tropical-related heavy rainfall events over Louisiana, USA

This study focuses on the evaluation of 3-hourly 0.25° × 0.25° satellite-based rainfall estimates produced by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). The evaluation is performed during six heavy rainfall events that were generated by tropical storms passing over Louisiana, United States. Two surface-based rainfall datasets from gauge and radar observations are used as a ground reference for evaluating the real-time (RT) version of the TMPA product and the post-real-time bias adjusted research version. The evaluation analysis is performed at the native temporal and spatial scales of the TMPA products, 3-hourly and 0.25° × 0.25°. Several graphical and statistical techniques are applied to characterize the deviation of the TMPA estimates from the reference datasets. Both versions of the TMPA products track reasonably well the temporal evolution and fluctuations of surface rainfall during the analyzed storms with moderate to high correlation values of 0.5–0.8. The TMPA estimates reported reasonable levels of rainfall detection especially when light rainfall rates are excluded. On a storm scale, the TMPA products are characterized by varying degrees of bias which was mostly within ± 25% and ± 50% for the research and RT products, respectively. Analysis of the error distribution indicated that, on average, the TMPA products tend to overestimate small rain rates and underestimate large rain rates. Compared to the real-time estimates, the research product shows significant improvement in the overall and conditional bias, and in the correlation coefficients, with slight deterioration in the probability of detecting rainfall occurrences. A fair agreement in terms of reproducing the tail of the distribution of rain rates (i.e., probability of surface rainfall exceeding certain thresholds) was observed especially for the RT estimates. Despite the apparent differences with surface rainfall estimates, the results reported in this study highlight the TMPA potential as a valuable resource of high-resolution rainfall information over many areas in the world that lack capabilities for monitoring landfalling tropical storms.