Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sustainable groundwater development in the coastal Tra Vinh province in Vietnam under saltwater intrusion and climate change

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

     

Lateral bearing performance and mechanism of piles in the transition zone due to pit-in-pit excavation

Acta Geotechnica - Excavation types of foundation pits for large-scale or special-purpose urban construction have been more and more complex, and the environmental safety issues caused by pit...     

Numerical simulation and evaluation of Asian dust events observed in Mongolia in spring 2011

The Asian dust forecasting model, Mongolian Asian Dust Aerosol Model (MGLADAM), has been operated by the National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring of Mongolia since 2010, for the forecast of Asian dust storms. In order to evaluate the performance of the dust prediction model, we simulated Asian dust events for the period of spring 2011. Simulated features were compared with observations from two sites in the dust source region of the Gobi desert in Mongolia, and in the downstream region in Korea. It was found that the simulated wind speed and friction velocity showed a good correlation with observations at the Erdene site (one of the sites in the Gobi desert). The results show that the model is proficient in the simulation of dust concentrations that are within the same order of magnitude and have similar start and end times, compared with PM₁₀ observed at two monitoring sites in the Gobi regions. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the dust simulation ranges up to 200 μg m^?3 because of the high concentrations in source regions, which is three times higher than that in the downstream region. However, the spatial pattern of dust concentration matches well with dust reports from synoptic observation. In the downwind regions, it was found that the model simluated all reported dust cases successfully. It was also found that the RMSE in the downwind region increased when the model integration time increased, but that in the source regions did not show consistent change. It suggests that MGLADAM has the potential to be used as an operational dust forecasting model for predicting major dust events over the dust source regions as well as predicting transported dust concentrations over the downstream region. However, it is thought that further improvement in the emission estimation is necessary, including accurate predictions in surface and boundary layer meteorology. In the downwind regions, background PM₁₀ concentration is considerably affected by other aerosol species, suggesting that a consideration of anthropogenic pollutants will be required for accurate dust forecasting.     

Detection of mines in acoustic images using higher order spectral features

A new pattern-recognition algorithm detects approximately 90% of the mines hidden in the Coastal Systems Station Sonar0, 1, and 3 databases of cluttered acoustic images, with about 10% false alarms. Similar to other approaches, the algorithm presented here includes processing the images with an adaptive Wiener filter (the degree of smoothing depends on the signal strength in a local neighborhood) to remove noise without destroying the structural information in the mine shapes, followed by a two-dimensional FIR filter designed to suppress noise and clutter, while enhancing the target signature. A double peak pattern is produced as the FIR filter passes over mine highlight and shadow regions. Although the location, size, and orientation of this pattern within a region of the image can vary, features derived from higher order spectra (HOS) are invariant to translation, rotation, and scaling, while capturing the spatial correlations of mine-like objects. Classification accuracy is improved by combining features based on geometrical properties of the filter output with features based on HOS. The highest accuracy is obtained by fusing classification based on bispectral features with classification based on trispectral features.     

Propagation of SH-waves in a layered medium

Summary. A set of recurrence relations similar to that of Kennett suitable for SH -wave generation in an ( n + l)-layered half-space is presented. The recurrence relations contain no growing terms, thus providing a stable and efficient algorithm for computing complete SH synthetic seismograms. The complete expansion of these recurrence relations gives the explicit form of the transfer function for SH -waves. The transfer function for a point source in layer s of the stratification is a series of 2 ⁿ terms in the denominator and a series of 2 ^{n−s +1} terms in the numerator. The result of Wang from ray summation is shown to be a special case of our general result. Numerical comparison of the algorithm of this paper with the propagator matrix method is also made.     

Direct parameter identification of fractured porous medium

A direct method of parameter identification for a fracture porous medium can be formulated. The coefficient of piezo-conductivity and the virtual fracture transmissivity can be determined using a combination of graphical methods and approximate formulae. Field calculation provides a practical demonstration of the proposed approach.     

Three-dimensional subsatellite motion under air drag and oblateness perturbations

The three-dimensional relative motion of a subsatellite with respect to a reference station in an elliptical orbit is studied. A general theory based on the variation of the relative elements, i.e. the instantaneous differences between the orbital parameters of the subsatellite and those of the station, is formulated in order to incorporate arbitrary perturbing forces acting on both satellites. The loss of precision inherent in the subtraction of almost identical quantities is avoided by the consistent use of difference variables. In the absence of perturbations exact analytical representations can be obtained for the relative state parameters. The influences of air drag and Earth's oblateness on the relative motion trajectories are investigated and illustrated graphically for a number of cases.