地震灾害风险评估及减灾策略研究——以贵州罗甸县为例

为探究贵州省地震灾害风险薄弱环节,减轻地震灾害风险,以贵州省罗甸县为示范,采用地震危险性概率分析方法对各乡镇进行危险性分析,开展地震灾害承灾体现场抽样调查,通过层次分析法和问卷调查的方式,首次构建乡镇级别的地震灾害风险和减灾能力指标体系,评估各乡镇地震灾害综合指数和程度,计算各乡镇地震灾害风险指数,确定红水河镇为高风险区、罗悃镇为中风险区、木引等7个乡镇为低风险区,并从建筑物设防、地震地质灾害及水库地震等角度剖析罗甸县地震灾害特点,从农村危房改造、移民搬迁、地质灾害防护及交通等方面提出减小地震灾害风险的建议。     

Ensemble retrieval of atmospheric temperature profiles from AIRS

ABSTRACT Satellite-based observations provide great opportunities for improving weather forecasting. Physical retrieval of atmo spheric profiles from satellite observations is sensitive to the uncertainty of the first guess and other factors. In order to improve the accuracy of the physical retrieval, an ensemble methodology was developed with an emphasis on perturbing the first guess. In the methodology, a normal probability density function （PDF） is used to select the optimal profile from the ensemble retrievals. The ensemble retrieval algorithm contains four steps： （1） regression retrieval for original first guess; （2） perturbation of the original first guess to generate new first guesses （ensemble first guesses）; （3） using the ensemble first guesses and nonlinear iterative physical retrieval to generate ensemble physical results; and （4） the final optimal profile is selected from the ensemble physical results by using PDE Temperature eigenvectors （EVs） were used to generate the pertur- bation and generate the ensemble first guess. Compared with the regular temperature profile retrievals from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder （AIRS）, the ensemble retrievals RMSE of temperature profiles selected by the PDF was reduced between 150 and 320 hPa and below 400 hPa, with a maximum improvement of 0.3 K at 400 hPa. The bias was also reduced in many layers, with a maximum improvement of 0.69 K at 460 hPa. The combined optimal （CombOpt） profile and a mean optimal （MeanOpt） profile of all ensemble physical results were improved below 150 hPa. The MeanOpt profile was better than the CombOpt profile, and was regarded as the final optimal （FinOpt） profile. This study lays the foundation for improving temperature retrievals from hyper-spectral infrared radiance measurements.     

由空间直角坐标计算大地坐标的简便公式

对大地测量教科书中给出的空间三维直角坐标与大地坐标的转换公式进行了大量的计算与分析，总结得出一组由空间直角坐标计算大地坐标的简便公式。     

粗差验后方差的无偏估计与最优稳健估计

在正态粗差假设下导出了粗差验后方差的无偏估计,对误差工膨胀模型和误差均值移动模型,两者的无偏估计公式是相同的。这证明了李德仁验后方差的朱建军方差不是无偏的。由于偏方定义的彭方法是正态粗差假设下的最优稳健估计。     

滇西北地区富碱岩体(脉)地质学及岩石化学特征

喜山期富碱岩体广布于滇西北地区 ,通过对其地质学和岩石化学特征的研究 ,认为富碱岩体 (脉 )由正长 (斑 )岩、二长斑岩、花岗斑岩及相关的火山岩组成 ,具有多次活动的特征 ,并形成区内富有特色的岩浆岩系列 ;该系列岩浆岩以富碱高钾为突出特点 ,具有正常的岩浆演化趋势 ,不同岩带岩石地质学和岩石化学方面有区域性变化规律。     

天津地面沉降区土水比论述

天津市地面沉降分布广,沉降速率大。本文针对当前地面沉降研究和防治过程中所遇到的勘查资料严重缺乏、禁采难以全面实现等难题,提出了土水比指标量。通过概念分析和对多年数据的分析,认为土水比可以检验地下水开采量数据的统计精度,指示地下水资源补给及土层释水条件,并表明沉降的严重程度,反映地下水资源的保障程度。建议在沉降防治工作中,以土水比作为指标,通过相关分析模型来制定压采量。     

基于解释量版的渤海油田巨厚砂砾岩定量表征

渤海油田古近系三角洲沉积发育巨厚（大于100 m）的砂岩和砾岩储层,储层横向变化快,内部非均质性强,地震预测难题大。文章针对此类问题,提出一种基于厚度解释量版的砂砾岩定量表征方法。根据已有钻井资料建立井点处地质模型,结合已有地质资料分析储层可能的变化形式,形成地质模型库,对地质模型库进行正演获得相应的正演地震资料库,然后提取正演地震资料的反射振幅属性,建立不同砂砾岩变化形式下的厚度解释量版,最后提取实际地震资料的反射振幅属性,将其投射到厚度解释量版上,实现对巨厚砂砾岩储层的定量表征。该方法克服了常规地震反演、地震属性等方法难以有效刻画巨厚砂砾岩储层的难题,实现了对具有干涉效应的巨厚砂砾岩储层的厚度及其内部变化的精确定量表征。     

胶东招掖地区滦家河花岗岩锆石U-Pb年代学、岩石地球化学及其地质意义

滦家河花岗岩体是胶东金矿区内的重要岩体,其岩性主要为中粗粒黑云母二长花岗岩。锆石LA—ICP—MS U—Pb年代学研究表明,滦家河花岗岩形成于149±2 Ma,属晚侏罗世。滦家河花岗岩Si O2的含量为64.58%~72.05%,相对较高;A/CNK值为0.98~1.22。微量元素特征显示,滦家河花岗岩富集大离子亲石元素(LILE)Rb、Ba、K,强烈亏损高场强元素(HFSE)Nb、Ta、Ti、P;稀土元素特征显示轻稀土强烈富集,重稀土极度亏损,轻微正铕异常。岩石的Nb/La和Nd/Th比值显示壳源花岗岩的特征,Rb/Sr比值暗示可能有部分幔源物质混入。结合区域地质分析认为,侏罗纪开始,太平洋板块向欧亚大陆的俯冲引发大规模幔源岩浆底侵,导致地壳物质部分熔融形成滦家河花岗岩。     

Projection of Landslides in China during the 21st Century under the RCP8.5 Scenario

More and more rainstorms and other extreme weather events occur in the context of global warming, which may increase the risks of landslides. In this paper, changes of landslides in the 21 st century of China under the high emission scenario RCP8.5(Representative Concentration Pathway) are projected by using a statistical landslide forecasting model and the regional climate model RegCM4.0. The statistical landslide model is based on an improved landslide susceptibility map of China and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold. First, it is driven by observed rainfall and RegCM4.0 rainfall in 1980–99, and it can reproduce the spatial distribution of landslides in China pretty well.Then, it is used to forecast the landslide changes over China in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results consistently reveal that landslides will increase significantly in most areas of China, especially in the southeastern, northeastern, and western parts of Northwest China. The change pattern at the end of the 21 st century is generally consistent with that in the middle of the 21 st century, but with larger increment and magnitude. In terms of the probability,the proportion of grid points that are very likely and extremely likely to experience landslides will also increase.     

旋涡星系随Hubble序列的一些统计性质

对发表在Ａ＆ＡｐＳｕｐｐｌｅｍｅｎｔ Ｓｅｒｉｅｓ上３６５个旋涡星系的一些参数（如表示旋臂缠卷松紧程度的参数Λ、切向角ｕ、盘的扁度Ｈ／Ｄ２５以及厚度等）随Ｈｕｂｂｌｅ序列变化的关系进行了统计研究。首次得到这些参量的平均值;并且从统计结果可以明显地看到Ｈｕｂｂｌｅ对旋涡星系的分类只是一种定性的、只有统计意义上的分类;另外,从我们的统计结果看,密度波理论的色散关系对大多数旋涡星系是成立的,即大多数旋涡