河流集合预报方法(ESP)在水资源中长期预测中的应用研究

中长期径流预测是水文水资源研究领域中的一项重要内容,为水资源规划管理及可持续利用、防汛抗旱、水库调度与发电计划制作、工农业用水计划编制等提供科学依据,对国民经济发展具有十分重要的意义.但由于大气圈极其复杂,水文要素并非仅是气象强迫输入的函数.它还受流域基本特性,前期来水以及人类活动等诸多因素的影响,中长期径流预测在其计算中存在着多种不确定性.因此,中长期径流预测一直是水文预测研究中难度较大的课题之一.本文引入河流集合预报方法(ESP),以丹江口水库为应用实例,利用水文气象历史资料和新安江水文模型,预测分析水库2007年10月份每旬的平均入库流量及概率分布统计,并经与实测流量过程对比分析,满足水库运行调度需求,为水库发电计划制作提供了可靠依据.     

敦化盆地上侏罗统-上新统地层划分对比讨论

利用野外资料、地震资料、煤田钻孔资料以及古生物资料,对松辽盆地外围探区敦化盆地的代表性地层划分方案进行了梳理,通过敦化盆地与周缘盆地之间的对比和分析,得出下列认识:(1)明确了珲春组的时代为始新世—渐新世;(2)指出白垩系上统龙井组地层在敦化盆地内可能是不存在的;(3)将原帽儿山组上段和下段分别划归泉水村组和长财组;(4)认为大砬子组、泉水村组、长财组和屯田营组在敦化盆地内是存在的,并通过盆间岩性地层和古生物地层对比指出大砬子组的时代可能为早白垩世阿普特期(Aptian)—阿尔布期(Albian),长财组时代可能为早白垩世贝利阿斯期—阿普特期;(5)对敦化盆地内几个地方地层名称的使用进行了修正;(6)建立了敦化盆地内目前可供参考使用的地层序列。     

深层裂缝性储层防漏堵漏实验评价研究

深层裂缝性气藏具有异常高压、高产等特点,钻井完井过程中易出现又喷又漏等复杂事故,因此需做好“防漏为主、堵漏为辅”的防漏堵漏措施。通过全尺寸堵漏装置进行了高压静态、动态模拟堵漏实验,优选配方组合,并系统评价了防漏、堵漏配方的封堵能力、承压能力以及酸溶性,评价研究出的防漏堵漏配方,具有酸溶率高、堵塞强度高、返排效果好等特点,为防漏、堵漏方案现场实施提供依据。     

地下管线内损伤电视检测系统的研制

介绍了地下管线内损伤电视检测系统的基本结构、工作原理、主要技术参数及其现场试验情况。     

岩矿显微组构对水银洞金矿成因的指示

黔西南水银洞金矿为产于上二叠统龙潭组中的超大型、高品位金矿床,矿床由多个金矿体组成.工业金矿体顺层产于龙潭组含煤地层所夹的玄武质、硅质、生物碎屑碳酸盐岩中.对水银洞金矿赋矿地层岩石以及矿石显微组构进行了研究,矿石中主要载金矿物为细粒黄铁矿,具再生边、粒内孔隙、铸模孔隙结构及镶边生物矿化构造、铸模式生物矿化构造,是一典型的具沉积一成岩组构.金矿化与硅化有密切的成因联系,金与SiO2来源于峨嵋山玄武岩的喷溢活动,主要金矿体更多显示与峨嵋山玄武岩准同生特征.矿床为沉积一成岩弱改造成囚金矿床.     

阿尔金南缘构造带西段辉绿岩墙群的地球化学特征及构造环境

对阿尔金南缘构造带西段辉绿岩墙群的岩石学和地球化学的详细研究表明,该区辉绿岩墙群为拉斑系列岩石,其主量元素以中等TiO2(1.19%～1.59%)、高MgO(5.51%～7.88%)、贫K2O(0.04%～0.84%)和P2O5(0.10%～0.20%)、Na2OK2O为特征;高场强元素(HFSE)丰度特征显示其为E-MORB型或过渡型玄武岩质岩石;稀土元素总量相对较高,轻重稀土元素分馏不显著[(La/Yb)N=1.93～3.61,LREE/HREE=3.01～4.10],在球粒陨石标准化配分模式图上呈略富集型.结合玄武岩构造环境判别图解综合分析推测,它们可能形成于一种裂谷向MORB环境过渡的构造环境,即初始小洋盆构造环境.     

Cyclotron amplification of geomagnetic micropulsations Pc1 in the magnetosphere

A numerical analysis of cyclotron instabilities is carried out by computing the dispersion relation for a three component cold plasma-beam system. Rates of growth and damping for various values of the stream density are calculated from the dispersion relation. The rates of growth and damping increase monotonically as the number density of the proton stream increases. It is found that the frequencies at the rates of maximum growth and the damping decrease slightly to lower frequencies and a sharp peak at these frequencies becomes blunt. The minimum e-folding times of an ion cyclotron wave for (a) σ_s = 10⁻⁴, σ_i = 10⁻² and (b) σ_s = 10⁻¹, σ_i = 10⁻² are about 3·84 and 0·16 sec respectively in the vicinity of the equatorial plane at 6 Re, where σ_s and σ_i are the ratios of the beam density N_s and the helium ion (H₆⁺) density N_i to the total positive ions in the plasma-beam system.     

Variations in exospheric density at heights near 1100km, derived from satellite orbits

In an earlier paper, values of exospheric density were obtained from the orbit of Echo 2 for the years 1964–1965. The results indicated a semi-annual variation in density by a factor of between 2 and 3, considerably larger than predicted by existing atmospheric models.

These studies have now been extended to the beginning of 1967, using both Echo 2 and Calsphere 1, to show how the density is responding to increasing solar activity. Variations in density during 1964 have been analysed in more detail. The long-term variation associated with the solar cycle and the short-term variations associated with magnetic and solar disturbances agree with the variations expected on the basis of current models. The semi-annual variation is persisting to higher levels of solar activity, and although its amplitude is diminishing the factor of variation was still 1.6 in 1966.