Sensitivity of hurricane intensity forecasts to physical initialization

Summary Intensity forecasts of a hurricane are shown to be quite sensitive to the initial meso-convective scale precipitation distributions. These are included within the data assimilation using a physical initialization that was developed at Florida State University. We show a case study of a hurricane forecast where the inclusion of the observed precipitation did provide reasonable intensity forecasts. Further experimentation with the inclusion or exclusion of individual meso-convective rainfall elements, around and over the storm, shows that the intensity forecasts were quite sensitive to these initial rainfall distributions. The exclusion of initial rain in the inner rain area of a hurricane leads to a much reduced intensity forecast, whereas that impact is less if the rainfall of an outer rain band was initially excluded.Intensity forecasts of hurricanes may be sensitive to a number of factors such as sea surface temperature anomalies, presence or absence of concentric eye walls, potential vorticity interactions in the upper troposphere and other environmental factors.This paper is a sequel to a recent study, Krishnamurti et al., 1997, on the prediction of hurricane OPAL of 1995 that was a category III storm over the Gulf of Mexico. In that study we showed successful forecasts of the storm intensity from the inclusion of observed rainfall distributions within physical initialization. In that paper we examined the issues of diabatic potential vorticity and the angular momentum in order to diagnose the storm intensity. All of the terms of the complete Ertel potential vorticity equation were evaluated and it was concluded that the diabatic contributions to the potential vorticity were quite important for the diagnosis of the storm's intensity. The present paper addresses some sensitivity issues related to the individual mesoconvective precipitating elements.With 4 Figures     

基于USB协议的望远镜多波带控制系统设计

怀柔观测基地的多通道太阳望远镜是通过数十个电机调节晶体偏转角度实现多波带同时观测的自动控制。原有的计算机是通过一个串行接口控制若干个调波带的电机,响应时间长,速度慢且技术比较落后。本文利用当今流行的USB2.0芯片CYPRESS EZ-USB改造原有的串口通信控制系统,大大提高了响应的速度,同时,为解决一个USB应用程序控制多个电机转动的问题,提出了一种"编号"的方法。这样每个USB设备不论其插入顺序,PC主机都能通过识别其固定编号而加以区分,PC主机可以通过4个USB接口(16个电机)控制多通道太阳望远镜滤光嚣的调制角度,实现自动控制。这为大规模改造其他计算机接口提供了研制基础。     

新冠疫情对中国国际航空网络连通性的影响及空间差异

航空运输在实现各国互联互通、推动全球经济发展中发挥着重要作用。突发公共卫生事件或恶劣天气等均易对航空网络的连通性造成影响。本研究以新冠疫情为例，从全球航空网络视角探讨新冠疫情对中国国际航空网络连通性的影响及地区差异。研究结果表明：疫情期间，中国境外通航城市、国际航班、国际航线数量均大幅缩减，航空网络连通效率显著降低，但其空间格局未发生根本性变化，东亚和东南亚仍是中国对外主要联系地区，经济联系与贸易仍然起着重要作用。航线停飞对中国与中亚、西亚和大洋洲航空网络的连通性影响最大，而航班缩减对中国与东亚、中亚和东南亚航空网络的连通性影响最大。在国内，北京、上海和广州仍然是中国对外联系的枢纽城市，且其聚集度在疫情期间得到提升。     

Application of Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Earthquake Prediction

After the earthquake (Ms = 6.1) occurred in Luquan county of Yunnan province on April 18, 1985, the relationship between major earthquakes and astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) of a photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory was analyzed. ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude. It was found that there appeared the anomalies of the ATLR before earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan, a seismic active region. The reason of the anomalies is possibly from change of the plumb line due to the motion of the groundmass before earthquakes. Afterwards, using studies of the anomalous characters and laws of ATLR, we tried to provide the warning information prior to the occurrence of a few major earthquakes in the region. The significant synchronous anomalies of ATLR of the observatory appeared before the earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao county of Yunnan province, on July 21, 2003. It has been again verified that the anomalies possibly provide the prediction information for strong earthquakes around the observatory.     

GAIM电离层同化方法进展

电离层是复杂的空间层结,其变化受太阳活动强度、地球磁场等因素影响。随着空间技术发展的需求,电离层天气变化成为目前空间天气预报最重要的内容之一。最近10年,人们利用卫星在电离层观测方面取得了重大进展,尤其引人注意的是:无线电掩星观测技术正走向应用的新阶段,加上已经建立的全球大量的地基GPS观测网,它们不仅为电离层动力学模式研究提供了丰富的电离层资料,而且为电离层预报提供了很好基础。因此,电离层天气预报成为当前重要的、前瞻性的研究方向,电离层资料同化是电离层预报最重要的研究内容之一。该文系统介绍这方面国际动态,重点是美国的USC/JPL和犹他州大学开展全球电离层同化模型研究、全球电离层同化研究的进展,以及在电离层天气预报中应用的初步成果。     

Morphological observation of Epithemia ocellata (Ehr.) Kütz. (Bacillariophyceae) from China

The species of Epithemia ocellata (Ehr.) Kütz. from Northeastern China were observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The studies on silica valve formation in different stages were made. At the early stage, a Y-shaped raphe sternum was found. Areolae were made from virgae and vimines. In immature valves, the canal formation before the raphe fissure is visible. The raphe system, virgae and vimines (areolae) might be the early siliceous elements of the valve during morphogenesis. The formations of virgae and vimines are similar to that of Gephyria media W. Arnott. Rows of silica papillae formed gradually on the face of the valve. After the areolae were covered with silica and form rows of papillae, the outer valve surface could become mature. Details of the internal costae were observed in mature valves.     

电离层E_S层对综合射束污染的初步分析

本文考虑到干涉仪对电离层中不同尺度不规则性的滤波作用、结合密云米波综合孔径系统、提出了电离层E_(?)层是电离层不规则性影响该系统的主要根源。不规则性的尺度约在700～1000米的范围。再考虑到E_(?)层的漂移运动,提出了文中所描述的模型。用电子计算机进行了E_(?)层对综合射束污染的模拟计算,结果指出:射束主瓣的增益下降约10％,副瓣由13％增大到18％;综合射束在赤经方向出现不对称性,从而引起约0.6秒的赤经误差;射束的边缘处和两个扇形区出现了杂瓣。     

2009-2013年普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量的年际变化及其与全球气候事件的关系

利用中国南极科学考察期间获得的颗粒物样品,对南大洋普里兹湾海域水体中生物硅的含量分布及年际变化情况进行了分析。研究结果显示:在2013年夏季普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量在0.38—8.62μmol/dm3之间变化,平均为1.55±1.86μmol/dm3。生物硅在67°S以南湾内区域表层水体中的含量明显高于67°S以北的湾外区域,最大值出现在普里兹湾陆架区,生物因子是表层水体生物硅含量分布的主控因子。根据不同年份即25、26、27、28、29次南极科学考察期间获取的数据研究显示,普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量存在明显的年际差异。历史数据分析结果表明,气候事件对普里兹湾海冰变化有明显的影响,因而对相应年份该海域浮游植物数量和种群结构也会产生一定的影响,从而导致表层水体中生物硅含量的年际差异。     

基于电子鼻的青蛤(Cyclina sinensis)软组织多氯联苯的快速检测方法研究

为建立一种简单快捷的水产品中多氯联苯(PCBs)检测方法,本研究应用电子鼻对青蛤(Cyclina sinensis)软组织中富集的多氯联苯进行检测,并采用HS-SPME-GC-MS(顶空固相微萃取-气质联用)对结果进行了验证。首先利用电子鼻制作PCB15浓度梯度模版,检测PCB15处理72h以及144h的青蛤软组织中残留量,采用LDA和PCA两种方法统计并同模板的浓度进行比较。结论:青蛤软组织中PCB15浓度能明显分开,并随着处理时间的延长,区分效果愈加明显,区分度愈大。PCA的分辨效果明显优于LDA。运用欧氏距离、马氏距离、判别函数法和相关性对含有PCB15的样品浓度分别进行鉴别和验证,四种方法总的鉴别率均达到90%以上,能够较准确地对样品进行验证。电子鼻检测青蛤软组织中的多氯联苯的最低检测限为0.05μg/L,GC-MS为0.5μg/L。     

菲律宾海北部四国海盆全新世沉积物源分析

对IODP333航次四国海盆北部地区C0011站位表层样品进行粒度和Sr-Nd同位素分析,并与前人发表的邻近海域同位素数据进行比较。经分离自生碳酸盐组分,四国海盆全新世沉积物呈现较好的陆源、火山源二端元组分特征。从地理位置看,四国海盆北部主要物质来源包括伊豆-小笠原海脊火山物质、日本列岛西南部的混合型沉积物以及由西向风或河流入海洋流输送而来的亚洲陆地沉积物,且日本列岛西南部对于该区域物质贡献最大。对四国海盆北部而言,与海盆中部沉积及日本海沉积相比,源自亚洲大陆的碎屑沉积物具有更多的贡献。沉积物中87Sr/86Sr与εNd、平均粒径的负相关关系反映了沉积物中陆源物质的相对贡献按时间顺序呈现增加、减小、增加、减少的多周期变化趋势。