一种多因子相关计算方法

采用分析与图解相结合的方法解决多因子非线性相关计算,求回归方程问题。先从多个因子中找出对倚变量影响最大的一个因子,作单相关曲线,求残差;再从余下的因子中找出对残差影响最大的因子,作相关曲线,求残差,直到剩余各因子对残差影响相当;最后用剩余因子线性分解残差,从而求得多因子非线性回归方程。     

FY2海面温度产品质量检验方法与误差分析

主要介绍了风云二号静止气象卫星海面温度产品的质量检验方法及检验流程,给出了FY2E业务海面温度产品和FY2F海面温度算法的质量检验结果,并从误差统计、反演算法、系统设计等方面分析了目前FY2海面温度产品与国外卫星海面温度产品差异大的原因。现场海面温度质量检验和分析场海面温度交叉检验各有优缺点。现场海面温度质量检验能够对FY2 SST产品给于客观的评价。国外分析场海面温度具有时效性好、全球覆盖且质量均一的优点,分析场海面温度交叉检验能满足FY2 SST质量检验的时效性,是对FY2 SST的相对检验。通过静止卫星海面温度产品质量检验信息可以为产品研发人员和相关用户提供参考。     

利用掩星资料分析东亚地区云厚的分布特征

利用2007年1月至2009年1月COSMIC掩星湿空气数据,基于相对湿度廓线出入云层时发生突变反演云边界高度的思想,统计分析了东亚地区云厚的分布特征。结果表明,掩星最低探测高度集中在3km以下,主要影响部分中云和低云云厚的反演。云发生概率沿纬度和经度方向呈现不同的分布特征,各类云概率随高度也有不同的变化规律。东亚地区所有云的平均厚度为1.78km,其中单层云和顶层云分布相似,双层云与其他云层的地理差异不大,单层云在春秋季分布相对均匀,而在夏冬季差异较大。夏季和冬季顶层云云顶高与云厚的二维频率分布各异,主要在于夏季有更多云体较厚且位于对流层上部的高云存在。     

太湖、洞庭湖野生青虾肌肉中有机氯农药的气相色谱-质谱法测定

使用气相色谱质谱技术测定了青虾肌肉组织中的8种有机氯农药.包括六氯苯、氯丹、滴滴涕(ΣDDTs)、艾氏剂、狄氏剂、异狄氏剂、七氯和灭蚁灵,对太湖和洞庭湖15个点位29组野士青虾样品的测定结果显示,青虾肌肉组织内残留的有机氯农药主要是六氯苯和滴滴涕,六氯苯含量为nd-13.2μg/kg(湿重),滴滴涕含量为0.790-5.82μg/kg(湿重),洞庭湖青虾肌肉中有机氯农药的含量略高于太湖青虾,两湖青虾肌肉残留有机氯农药在枯水期时的含量多数大于丰水期时的含量.     

西藏结则茶卡湖岸沉积物中铀系年龄及意义

通过对藏北高原西北部结则茶卡湖泊及其沿岸地质地貌调查,发现其为一个富含硼、锂、钾、锶的封闭型盐湖,沿岸海拔4 850 m拔湖325 m有一条明显的高位湖岸线,该湖岸线到湖面之间有六级湖积阶地发育,六级以上阶地保存零星。沿湖岸不同高度上的湖积物U系年龄分别为(14.2±1.2)ka BP(T2)、(38.0±3.5)ka BP(T4)和(41.6±3.2)ka BP(T5)。湖面下降的幅度是藏北高原迄今所知最大。根据湖面平均下降速度推算高位湖岸线和高位湖积层的形成年龄在(120~90)ka BP,与东部的纳木错和西部的甜水海基本一致,说明藏北高原在晚更新世初期有一个明显的泛湖期。大约100 ka BP结则茶卡湖面开始下降,晚更新世以来湖泊演化是在封闭体系干旱环境下进行的,盐湖形成于14 ka BP左右,藏北高原在晚更新世以来气候变化可能为自西向东逐渐变为干寒。     

Predicting size effect on diffusion-limited current density of oxygen reduction by copper wire

The size effect of copper wire radius (0.04–0.82 mm) on the diffusion-limited current density of an oxygen reduction reaction in stagnant simulated seawater (naturally aerated 0.5 mol/L NaCl) is investigated by potentiodynamic polarization and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and compared with the results obtained in 0.5 mol/L H2SO4. In the oxygen diffusion-limited range, size effect is found to occur independent of electrolytes, which is attributed to non-linear diffusion. Additionally, to sati...     

Thickness distribution and extent of sea ice and snow in Prydz Bay and surrounding waters observed in 2012/2013 austral summer

Three ship-based observational campaigns were conducted to survey sea ice and snow in Prydz Bay and the surrounding waters(64.40°S–69.40°S, 76.11°E–81.29°E) from 28 November 2012 to 3 February 2013. In this paper, we present the sea ice extent and its variation, and the ice and snow thickness distributions and their variations with time in the observed zone. In the pack ice zone, the southern edge of the pack ice changed little, whereas the northern edge retreated significantly during the two earlier observation periods. Compared with the pack ice, the fast ice exhibited a significantly slower variation in extent with its northernmost edge retreating southwards by 6.7 km at a rate of 0.37 km?d-1. Generally, ice showed an increment in thickness with increasing latitude from the end of November to the middle of December. Ice and snow thickness followed an approximate normal distribution during the two earlier observations(79.7±28.9 cm, 79.1±19.1 cm for ice thickness, and 11.6±6.1 cm, 9.6±3.4 cm for snow thickness, respectively), and the distribution tended to be more concentrated in mid-December than in late November. The expected value of ice thickness decreased by 0.6 cm, whereas that of snow thickness decreased by 2 cm from 28 November to 18 December 2012. Ice thickness distribution showed no obvious regularity between 31 January and 3 February, 2013.     

Revisiting the Relationship Between Urbanization and Economic Development in China Since the Reform and Opening-up

The relationship between urbanization and economic development has become a hot topic in the scientific community due to its great practical significance,and economic and social value.However,this relationship continues to change dynamically.In the new stage of urbanization,it is urgent to reveal the causal relationship quantitatively and diagnose the future direction systematically.Based on this,this paper calculates the contribution rate of China’s urbanization to economic development from 1978 to 2019 and uses the panel data cointegration test method to explore the causal relationship between urbanization and economic development in China.The study has three principal results.First,the contribution rate of urbanization to economic growth has maintained the overall growth trend from1978 to 2019,but the growth rate of urbanization’s contribution to economic growth has been relatively low since 2012.It is an important reason that the real estate sector has moved into a new stage of transformation.Second,the cointegration test shows that economic development is a significant factor in advancing urbanization and the urbanization is the product of economic development.Urbanization has a positive feedback effect on economic development,but this effect does not pass the 5%significance level test.The impulse response function shows that the impact of urbanization on economic development is relatively small and stable,indicating that it is limited that the boost of economic development by land-centered urbanization.Third,China’s urbanization and economic development have both shown rapid growth for some time,but their relationship is still the low level of coordination,which has also led to a downward trend in the contribution of new-type,people-oriented urbanization to economic growth in recent years.In the future,China’s urbanization and economy need to maintain relatively medium-low speed growth in the medium-long term,and we should boost the coordinated development of urbanization and economy from low level to high level.     

基于自适应核密度的贝叶斯概率模型岩性识别方法研究

准确地刻画岩石类型及其结构关系可以为能源矿产勘探、深部结构与构造等研究提供重要信息.目前利用地球物理技术可以通过不同岩石对应的物性参数(如密度、磁化率、电阻率、速度等)之间的差异进行岩性识别,但是不同岩石物性往往存在一定程度的重合,利用单一物性进行岩性识别的结果不够准确,因此利用多源数据进行岩性识别具有重要的意义.贝叶斯方法属于统计分类方法,依靠概率进行分类,概率密度的计算依靠样本属性之间的相互联系.基于此,我们将基于自适应核密度估计的贝叶斯概率模型引入到岩性识别中.该方法对于多类不同物性参数具有良好的适应能力,预测的岩性分类结果带有概率参数,可以存在模糊区间,提供多种岩性分类结果.该方法具有较强可扩展性,可以同时处理参数和非参数信息,使得已知地质信息以及物性参数得到最大化的利用.实验证明该方法的岩性识别结果较好,相比于传统高斯算法和固定带宽核密度估计,自适应带宽的核密度估计获得的分类结果更稳定、更准确.     

小秦岭地区矿田构造深部探测初步认识

通过地震剖面、钻孔资料对比,利用1∶5万重力资料和广域电磁测深资料对小秦岭地区矿田构造深部特征进行了探讨。初步认为:小秦岭地区太华群埋深1 500、2 500、3 500 m处是重要的构造界面,特别是1 500 m处可能限制了大多数的石英脉矿体就位,1 500～2 500 m网格状电磁剖面南倾、北倾视电阻率交汇部位有可能形成较大规模金矿体;巡马道断裂结构复杂,其上盘可能以构造片岩、碎裂岩为主,3 500 m深部可能存在燕山期侵入岩体,具有寻找石英脉型金矿的前景,又具备形成构造蚀变岩型金矿的条件;太要断裂呈"阶梯状"北倾,其北1.5～3 km范围内,第四系下伏太华群埋深在800～1 500 m,该断裂西宽东窄,东西两段断距存在差异;提出了该地区深部找矿应重点关注巡马道断裂中西段两侧电性结构特征复杂地段的认识。