Temporal evolution of innovation and residual statistics in the ECMWF variational data assimilation systems

The temporal evolution of innovation and residual statistics of the ECMWF 3D‐ and 4D‐Var data assimilation systems have been studied. First, the observational method is applied on an hourly basis to the innovation sequences in order to partition the perceived forecast error covariance into contributions from observation and background errors. The 4D‐Var background turns out to be ignificantly more accurate than the background in the 3D‐Var. The estimated forecast error variance associated with the 4D‐Var background trajectory increases over the assimilation window. There is also a marked broadening of the horizontal error covariance length scale over the assimilation window. Second, the standard deviation of the residuals, i.e., the fit of observations to the analysis is studied on an hourly basis over the assimilation window. This fit should, in theory, reveal the effect of model error in a strong constraint variational problem. A weakly convex curve is found for this fit implying that the perfect model assumption of 4D‐Var may be violated with as short an assimilation window as six hours. For improving the optimality of variational data assimilation systems, a sequence of retunes are needed, until the specified and diagnosed error covariances agree.     

Late-Holocene shore displacement of the Finnish south coast: diatom, litho- and chemostratigraphic evidence from three isolation basins

Lake isolation studies provide the most reliable method for reconstructing the shore displacement history of the areas affected by postglacial isostatic land uplift. Due to the slow uplift rate and the presence of numerous lakes, the Finnish south coast is one of the key areas for investigating the Litorina transgression and subsequent shore displacement history of the Baltic. To reconstruct the relative sea-level dynamics during the late Holocene, three small lakes from the critical altitudes were analysed concerning their diatom, sulphate-sulphur, and sodium stratigraphies and loss-on-ignition values. Comparisons of the records indicate that the availability of nutrients significantly influenced the diatom-floristic patterns during the lake isolation. In particular, the mass occurrence of Fragilaria spp. seems to be associated with high values of sulphate-sulphur and sodium during and after isolation. On the basis of the new and old data, a shore displacement curve for the 30 m Litorina isobase is compiled. This indicates that since the clear Litorina transgression at 7500-6500 ¹⁴C BP, no transgressions have taken place but that the shore displacement in the area has been a stable process. The occurrence of a number of raised shore formations between the altitude of the major Litorina shore and the present sea level in south Finland can be attributed to the erosion of soft soil layers by the high-energy wave action on the exposed shore sections.     

Deglaciation pattern indicated by the ice-margin formations in Northern Karelia, eastern Finland

A map has been reconstructed representing the large-scale glacial and glaciofluvial morphology of Northern Karelia and the adjacent area of Soviet Karelia. Observations have been made on the directions of glacial striae and on the distribution of sub-aquatic and supra-aquatic terrain in order to obtain a consistent picture of the course of deglaciation in the area and the factors affecting it. The map indicates that the behaviour of the glacier during the deglaciation was largely governed by the distribution of sub-aquatic and supra-aquatic areas. The marginal zone of the ice sheet was divided into two large lobes in this area. The Finnish Lake District Lobe terminated mostly in water, giving rise to massive glaciofluvial accumulations, while the North Karelian Lobe flowed on the land above the highest shore levels, pushing up several more or less discontinuous narrow end-moraine ridges. Relatively large glaciofluvial deposits were also formed in the supra-aquatic area in places where the ice margin terminated in a local ice-dammed lake. It is evident that the Salpausselkä I and II end-moraines extend as continuous formations only to the zone where the former ice margin rose onto dry land during the deglaciation phase. The spatial and temporal differences in the glacial dynamics and differing depositional environments gave rise to the complex glacial morphology of Northern Karelia.