灰色预测模型GM(1.1)在水文预测中的应用——以玛纳斯河为例

由于灰色预测模型理论较时间序列预测具有很大的优势,所以在许多领域得到广泛的应用.为将该方法应用于水文与水资源预测,本文以玛纳斯河流量预测为例,应用GM(1.1)灰色预测模型对水文水资源要素进行预测,并分析该预测模型在水文水资源中的应用.经分析认为,GM(1.1)灰色预测模型对水文水资源要素预测具有重要的意义.     

GMS数值建模方法研究综述

GMS 和 FEFLOW 为地下水数值模拟软件的典型代表,FEFLOW 具有强大的可视化功能和方便的输入输出,其缺点是难以处理复杂的水文地质条件,而 GMS 具有强大齐全的地下水模拟功能,几乎囊括了与地下水有关的所有模拟功能,包括地下水随机模拟.详细介绍了基于有限差分原理的 GMS 软件中的各个模块,以及采用 GMS 软件组建地下水数值模拟模型的各种方法,包括网格法、概念模型法和 Solid 法.     

陕蒙交界地区碎屑岩风化成因浅析

陕蒙交界地区基岩均具强风化,由此造成当地环境恶化、下游地区生态破坏和灾害积累。其形成机理应与岩石本身的物质组成、自然地理环境、地质构造状况、水文地质条件及其物理化学条件有关。而南部地区,由于上述诸因素的差别,基岩风化微弱。     

Stable isotope characteristics and origin of ore-forming fluids in copper-gold-polymetallic deposits within strike-slip pull-apart basin of Weishan-Yongping continental collision orogenic belt, Yunnan Province, China

More than 140 middle-small sized deposits or minerals are present in the Weishan-Yongping ore concentration area which is located in the southern part of a typical Lanping strike-slip and pull-apart basin. It has plenty of mineral resources derived from the collision between the Indian and Asian plates. The ore-forming fluid system in the Weishan-Yongping ore concentration area can be divided into two subsystems, namely, the Zijinshan subsystem and Gonglang arc subsystem. The ore-forming fluids of Cu, Co deposits in the Gonglang arc fluid subsystem have δD values between −83.8‰ and −69‰, δ¹⁸O values between 4.17‰ and 10.45‰, and δ¹³C values between −13.6‰ and 3.7‰, suggesting that the ore-forming fluids of Cu, Co deposits were derived mainly from magmatic water and partly from formation water. The ore-forming fluids of Au, Pb, Zn, Fe deposits in the Zijinshan subsystem have δD values between −117.4‰ and −76‰, δ¹⁸O values between 5.32‰ and 9.56‰, and Δ¹³C values between −10.07‰ and −1.5‰. The ore-forming fluids of Sb deposits have δD values between −95‰ and −78‰, δ¹⁸O values between 4.5‰ and 32.3‰, and Δ¹³C values between −26.4‰ and −1.9‰. Hence, the ore-forming fluids of the Zijinshan subsystem must have been derived mainly from formation water and partly from magmatic water. Affected by the collision between the Indian and Asian plates, ore-forming fluids in Weishan-Yongping basin migrated considerably from southwest to northeast. At first, the Gonglang arc subsystem with high temperature and high salinity was formed. With the development of the ore-forming fluids, the Zijinshan subsystem with lower temperature and lower salinity was subsequently formed. Translated from Mineral Deposits, 2006, 25(1): 60–70 [译自: 矿床地质]     

北固山淡水潮汐湿地土壤对铜(Ⅱ)和铬(Ⅵ)的吸附特征研究

以长江河口地区北固山淡水潮汐湿地为研究对象,采用一次平衡法研究了生长有芦苇(Phragmites austra-lis)、虉草(Phalaris armdinacea)植物的湿地土壤和边滩裸地对重金属Cu(Ⅱ)和Cr(Ⅵ)的吸附特征。结果表明,湿地土壤对Cu(Ⅱ)的吸附受到植物类型与温度变化效应的交互影响。20℃时,生长有芦苇的湿地土壤对Cu(Ⅱ)的吸附量最大,生长有虉草的湿地土壤次之,边滩裸地最小;当温度的升高至30℃时,上述差异明显减小。对以阴离子形式存在的Cr(Ⅵ)而言,湿地土壤和边滩裸地对其吸附量的植物类型差异性不明显。当温度从20℃升高至30℃时,湿地土壤和边滩裸地对Cu(Ⅱ)、Cr(Ⅵ)的吸附量都减小,反映出研究区湿地土壤对两种重金属的吸附机制表现为化学吸附作用较弱,物理吸附作用相对较强,吸附呈放热过程。Freundlich方程是描述淡水潮汐湿地土壤Cu(Ⅱ)、Cr(Ⅵ)等温吸附的最佳模型,方程中常数n和k的大小能够体现吸附过程中存在的植物类型与温度变化影响效应,比较真实的反映了吸附的过程。     

近50年来新疆天山山区水循环要素的变化特征与趋势

天山山区由于其特殊的地理位置与高海拔,成为新疆地表径流的主要产流区域。近几十年来,全球平均气温的持续上升对该区域气温、降水、径流等水循环要素产生重要的影响。根据天山南北坡有关水文气象台站的观测资料,系统地分析了该区域1960年代以来各水循环要素的变化特征与趋势。结果表明,受全球变暖的影响,1980年以来整个天山地区气温和降水均呈明显的上升趋势,其中10 a气温的升幅更为显著;对于降水而言,天山南坡降水增幅大于北坡,而南坡的西段是近10 a降水增幅最大的区域。受气温上升与降水增加的影响,天山地区出山径流总体上呈增加的趋势,其中,近10 a天山南坡中西段河流出山径流量增幅最为显著,平均增幅在30%以上。     

青藏高原崇测冰芯氯离子、硫酸根离子记录

通过对青藏高原崇测冰帽一支18．70m冰芯中Cl^-、SO4^2-离子含量变化的分析表明，20世纪90年来Cl^-、SO4^2-离子含量在波动中呈下降趋势，两种离子的周期性波动变化相似，20世纪晚期比早期和中期的波动幅度小，总体上离子含量逐渐减少与温度在波动中上升相一致，但每一次温度的升高与离子含量的下降并非一一对应。陆源物质和青藏高原上的盐湖是冰芯中Cl^-、SO4^2-离子的主要贡献者。揭示了研究地区大气成分和环境变化与气候变化的关系及亚洲粉尘在全球环境变化中的源区地位。     

Characteristics and method of synthesis seismic wave based on wavelet reconstruction

A novel method of synthesizing seismic wave using wavelet reconstruction is proposed and compared with the traditional method of using theory of Fourier transform. By adjusting the frequency band energy and taking it as criterion, the formula of synthesizing seismic wave is deduced. Using the design parameters specified in Chinese Seismic Design Code for buildings, seismic waves are synthesized. Moreover, the method of selecting wavelet bases in synthesizing seismic wave and the influence of the damping ratio on synthesizing results are analyzed. The results show that the synthesis seismic waves using wavelet bases can represent the characteristics of the seismic wave as well as the ground characteristic period, and have good time-frequency non-stationary.     

印尼苏门答腊MW9.0级地震对全球及中国大陆地震趋势影响研究的反思

本文对2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊以西发生MW9.0级地震后所做的地震趋势预测做了反思,指出:关于全球特大地震近年可能连发,特大地震对几年内世界7级以上地震年频度没有明显影响,但未来几年内7级以上强震可能集中在这次特大地震附近或相关构造上的预测意见是正确的;而有关近年中国大陆及川滇地区可能发生7级强震的预测是错误的;并认为,2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震释放了已积累的应变可能是这次特大地震不能触发中国大陆及川滇地区发生强震的重要原因。     

Experimental study of surface texture and resonance mechanism of booming sand

The sound-producing mechanism of booming sand has long been a pending problem in the blown sand physics. Based on the earlier researches, the authors collected some silent sand samples from Teng- ger Desert, Australian Desert, Kuwait Desert, beaches of Hainan Island and Japanese coast as well as the soundless booming sand samples from the Mingsha Mountain in Dunhuang to make washing ex- periments. In the meantime the chemical corrosion experiment of glass micro-spheres, surface coating experiment and SEM examination were also conducted. The experimental results show that the sound production of booming sand seems to have nothing to do with the presence of SiO2 gel on the surface of sand grains and unrelated to the surface chemical composition of sand grains but is related to the resonance cavities formed by porous (pit-like) physical structure resulting from a number of factors such as wind erosion, water erosion, chemical corrosion and SiO2 gel deposition, etc. Its resonance mechanism is similar to that of Hemholz resonance cavity. Under the action of external forces, nu- merous spherical and sand grains with smooth surface and porous surface are set in motion and rub with each other to produce extremely weak vibration sound and then become audible sound by human ears through the magnification of surface cavity resonance. However the booming sands may lose their resonance mechanism and become silent sand due to the damping action caused by the invasion of finer particles such as dust and clay into surface holes of sand grains. Therefore, clearing away fine pollutants on the quartz grain surface is an effective way to make silent sand emit audible sound.