Drop size dependent sulfate distribution in a growing cloud

A simple entraining air parcel model including cloud microphysical and chemical processes is used to calculate the distribution of sulfate over the drop sizes under continental background conditions. Under these conditions the aerosol sulfate is predicted to contribute the largest amount of aqueous sulfate in cloud drops. The sulfate produced by oxidation is found to contribute significantly in drops larger than 10 m radius.     

A fuzzy-Markov-chain-based analysis method for reservoir operation

In this study, a fuzzy-Markov-chain-based stochastic dynamic programming (FM-SDP) method is developed for tackling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and distributions with fuzzy probability (DFPs) in reservoir operation. The concept of DFPs used in Markov chain is presented as an extended form for expressing uncertainties including both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. A fuzzy dominance index analysis approach is proposed for solving multiple fuzzy sets and DPFs in the proposed FM-SDP model. Solutions under a set of α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels. The developed method is applied to a case study of a reservoir operation system. Solutions from FM-SDP provide a range of desired water-release policies under various system conditions for reservoir operation decision makers, reflecting dynamic and dual uncertain features of water availability simultaneously. The results indicate that the FM-SDP method could be applicable to practical problems for decision makers to obtain insight regarding the tradeoffs between economic and system reliability criteria. Willingness to obtain a lower benefit may guarantee meeting system-constraint demands; conversely, a desire to acquire a higher benefit could run into a higher risk of violating system constraints.     

Potentiality of Paleocene source rocks and their contribution in generating the accumulated oil in the Eocene Pila Spi Reservoir in Taq Taq Oil Field, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

The organic matters within the Paleocene Aaliji and Kolosh Formations in the well TT-04, Taq Taq Oil Field in Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq have been studied optically and also analytically by means of pyrolysis, Gas Chromatography (GC), and Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (GC/MS). Amorphous organic matters seemed to be the dominant component of the extracted organic matters within the studied section with an obvious increase of the Phytoclasts at the upper part of Kolosh Formation. Thermal Alteration Index, vitrinite reflectance, pyrolysis, and gas chromatography data all indicated the maturity of the lower part from the studied layers (known generally as Aaliji/Kolosh) and within the early stages of oil generation. Oil–source correlation indicates the possibility of contribution of the Paleocene source rocks in generating the accumulated oil in the Eocene Pila Spi reservoir in the field which also appeared to be a mature and of marine-to-mixed carbonate source. Oil–oil correlation between the oil in Pila Spi and the oil in the Upper Cretaceous reservoirs showed the possibility of existence of more than one source for the two oils. GC/MS analysis for the Pila Spi oil indicated the effect of biodegradation which may be considered as one of the reasons for being the American Petroleum Institute (API) of this oil about 24° while the oil in the Cretaceous reservoirs is of more than 47° API.     

Influence of calibration methodology on ground water flow predictions

We constructed a numerical model of transient ground water flow and solute transport for a portion of the Biscayne Aquifer in Florida, and calibrated the model with three different combinations of data from a 193-day period: head (h) data alone, data on h and ground water discharge to a canal (q), and data on h, q, and ground water chloride concentration (C). We used each of the three calibrated models to predict h and q during a 182-day test period separate from the calibration period. All three calibrated models predicted h equally well during the test period (r = 0.95, where r = 1 indicates perfect agreement between measured and simulated values), though the model calibrated on h alone had significantly different parameter values than the other two models. Predictions of q during the test period depended on calibration methodology; models calibrated with multiple targets simulated q more accurately than the model calibrated on h alone (r = 0.79 compared to r = 0.49). Based on the results of these simulations, we conclude: (1) Post-calibration prediction is important in assessing the value of different data types in automated calibration; (2) inverse-solution uniqueness is not a requirement for accurate h predictions; (3) relatively simple models can predict with reasonable accuracy transient ground water flow in a complex aquifer, and parameters governing this prediction can be estimated by nonlinear regression methods that incorporate both h and q data; (4) addition of C data to the calibration did not improve model predictive capacity because the information in the C data was similar to that in the q data, from the perspective of model calibration (the subsurface chemical signal in question was controlled mainly by seepage of high-chloride canal water into the low-chloride ground water system).     

Wind-driven upwelling and surface chlorophyll blooms in Greater Cook Strait

We present the results of a combined observational and numerical study to investigate cool plumes of nutrient-rich upwelled water that emanate near the Kahurangi Shoals and extend into Greater Cook Strait. Surface temperature and chlorophyll are mapped using satellite observations to produce surface climatologies, to validate a numerical simulation and to show the utility of using spatial temperature differences as a measure of upwelling. We find upwelling near the Kahurangi Shoals is strongly wind-driven in the weather band. Upwelling occurs at all times of the year, but its surface signature is only visible in summer months. The upwelled nutrient-rich water supports increased primary production compared to surrounding waters, particularly in summer when the water column is more stratified and surrounding surface waters are presumably nutrient depleted.