Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.     

Untersuchungen an Intrusivgesteinen des östlichen Hindukusch

Zusammenfassung Aus bisher nur wenig untersuchten Arealen des Hohen Hindukusch, des Hinduraj und des Nord-West-Karakorum (Afghanistan, Pakistan) wurden 11 granitisch-dioritische Intrusiva und ein Lamprophyr optisch und chemisch untersucht. Anhand der aus den Analysen errechneten Niggli-Werten wird versucht, räumlich getrennte Intrusivkörper gruppenweise zu korrelieren. Die Lage der Intrusiva im Gebiet zwischen Tirich Mir und Kampire Dior wird in einer Karte dargestellt, welche aufgrund eigener Kartierungen und vorhandener Literatur gezeichnet wurde.

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From areas of the High Hindukush, the Hinduraj and the North-West-Karakoram (Afghanistan, Pakistan), of which exists scarce geologic information, eleven graniticdioritic intrusive rocks and one lamprophyr have been examined optically and chemically. Using the Niggli-values calculated from these analyses an attempt is made to correlate groupwise the regionally separated intrusive bodies. The location of these intrusive bodies in the area between Tirich Mir and Kampire Dior is shown on a geologic map which has been compiled from fieldwork and literature.

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Résumé Onze intrusions granitiques à dioritiques et un lamprophyre provenant de régions rarement explorées du Haut Hindou-Kouch, de l'Hinduraj et du Nord-Ouest du Karakorum (Afghanistan, Pakistan) ont été examinées au point de vue optique et chimique. Sur la base des paramètres de Niggli calculés à partir des analyses chimiques, on essaie d'établir une corrélation entre elles et de grouper les corps intrusifs séparés dans l'espace. La position de ces corps intrusifs dans la région entre le Tirich Mir et le Kampire Dior est figurée sur une carte géologique dessinée sur la base de nos résultats et de la littérature.

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, - (, ) 11 . Niggli . Tirich Kampire Dior , .

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Für die freundliche Überlassung von Probenmaterial vom Tirich Mir möchten wir Herrn K.Diemberger und für die Handstücke aus dem Karumbar-Gebiet Herrn H.Linzbichler herzlich danken.Für die Erlaubnis zur Benützung des Röntgendiffraktometers danken wir Herrn Prof. Dr. H.Seelmeier, Technische Hochschule in Graz.     

High-harmonic geoid signatures related to glacial isostatic adjustment and their detectability by GOCE

The Earth’s asthenosphere and lower continental crust can regionally have viscosities that are one to several orders of magnitude smaller than typical mantle viscosities. As a consequence, such shallow low-viscosity layers could induce high-harmonic (spherical harmonics 50–200) gravity and geoid anomalies due to remaining isostasy deviations following Late-Pleistocene glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Such high-harmonic geoid and gravity signatures would depend also on the detailed ice and meltwater loading distribution and history.ESA’s Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite mission, planned for launch in Summer 2008, is designed to map the quasi-static geoid with centimeter accuracy and gravity anomalies with milligal accuracy at a resolution of 100 km or better. This might offer the possibility of detecting gravity and geoid effects of low-viscosity shallow earth layers and differences of the effects of various Pleistocene ice decay scenarios. For example, our predictions show that for a typical low-viscosity crustal zone GOCE should be able to discern differences between ice-load histories down to length scales of about 150 km.One of the major challenges in interpreting such high-harmonic, regional-scale, geoid signatures in GOCE solutions will be to discriminate GIA-signatures from various other solid-earth contributions. It might be of help here that the high-harmonic geoid and gravity signatures form quite characteristic 2D patterns, depending on both ice load and low-viscosity zone model parameters.     

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.     

Geochemistry and palaeo-oceanography of metalliferous and pelagic sediments from the Late Cretaceous Oman ophiolite

Metalliferous and pelagic sediments are exposed within and above the extrusive successions of the Upper Cretaceous Oman ophiolite which, on the basis of mostly geochemical evidence, is believed to have formed in an incipient marginal basin setting located above a NE-dipping subduction zone. The ophiolitic extrusives document various volcano-tectonic settings which include the axial zones of a spreading ridge, fault-controlled seamounts and off-axis volcanic edifices. Most of the Fe, Mn and trace metal-enriched sediments studied are interpreted as precipitates formed by oxidation of solutions derived from high-temperature sulphide-precipitating vents. The trace element content (e.g. REE and Sr) was largely scavenged from seawater. The sediments are similar to the dispersed metalliferous sediments on the flanks of modern spreading ridges, and the ‘basal’ sediments of DSDP wells and of other ophiolite complexes (e.g. Troodos, Cyprus).Distinctive mound structures located low in the lavas are attributed to percolation of sulphide-rich solutions into already deposited metalliferous oxide sediments. The resulting iron-silica rock was probably originally precipitated as ferruginous silicates.Major massive sulphides formed off-axis at the base of intermediate-basic edifices of volcanic arc affinities. Fe, Mn and trace metal enrichment in the sediment cover of a flat-topped seamount of axial lavas is interpreted as a dispersion halo around the largest massive sulphide orebody which is situated 5 km away (Lasail). Small massive sulphide bodies are common in the axial lavas particularly along major seafloor fault zones. The metalliferous sediments, locally precipitated near these vents, are ferromanganiferous, but trace metal-depleted.The metalliferous and pelagic sediment cover of the extrusive successions, generally, documents waning hydrothermal input after volcanism ended in the area.A model is discussed in which the ophiolite was created at a spreading axis above a subduction zone dipping away from the Arabian continental margin. With progressive subduction this crust approached the margin. Initially, calcareous sediment accumulated above the calcite compensation depth (CCD), but then non-calcareous radiolarites were deposited as the ophiolitic crust approached the continental margin where the CCD was higher and marginal upwelling possibly enhanced productivity. As the edge of the Arabian continental margin entered the trench, the over-riding ophiolite was regionally uplifted allowing short-lived chalk accumulation above the CCD. This was followed by volcaniclastic deposition related to the tectonic emplacement.     

Study ofP-wave velocity below moho

Summary Seismograms recorded during the Trans-Scandinavian Profile of 1969 at the stations Kajaani, Oulu, Maaselkä and Sodankylä are used to determine theP wave velocities for distances from 400 km to 1300 km. An apparent velocity of 8.50 km/s was found. After making a correction due to the curvature of the earth the velocity of about 8.40 km/s was obtained at an approximate depth of 80 km. Some comparisons are made with other results from Fennoscandian area.     

Calculation of velocity skewness in real and artificial plant canopies

Wind velocities within a plant canopy are much more strongly skewed than those of the air flow above. We have examined the governing Eulerian equations for the velocity products u _i, u _j u_k using data from a wind tunnel study with an artificial canopy consisting of an array of 5 cm lengths of monofilament fishing line, and from measurements in corn (Zea mays L).Simple parameterizations for pressure-velocity correlations, and for the quadruple velocity products allowed reasonably accurate calculations of the third moments using measured profiles of the mean velocity, variance and covariance fields. Comparisons of individual terms in the rate equations for ovu _i, u _j u _krevealed that diffusion (from above) and mean shear were most important in creating large skewness in the canopy. A drag term also contributed but was of lesser importance. These terms were balanced by return-to-isotropy and a turbulence interaction term. A quasi-Gaussian approximation considerably underestimated the magnitude of the fourth moments within the canopy.