Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ionospheric Scintillation and Dynamics of Fresnel-Scale Irregularities in the Inner Region of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly

This paper reports differences in the occurrence statistics of global positioning system (GPS) L-band scintillations at observational sites located in the inner regions of the northern and southern crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly. Ground-based GPS data acquired at the closed magnetically aligned stations of Manaus (3.1°S; 59.9°W; dip lat. 6.2°N) and Cuiabá (15.5°S; 56.1°W; dip. lat. 6.2°S), Brazil, from December 2001 to February 2007 are used in the analysis. The drift dynamics of Fresnel-scale ionospheric irregularities at the southern station of Cuiabá are also investigated. Only geomagnetically quiet days with the sum of daily Kp < 24 were used in the analysis statistics and in the irregularity drift studies. The results reveal a clear dependence of the scintillation occurrence with the solar activity, but there exists an asymmetry in the percentage of scintillation occurrence between the two stations throughout the period analyzed. The nocturnal occurrence of the scintillations over Cuiabá is predominantly larger than over Manaus, but this scenario seems to change with the decline in the solar activity (mainly during local post-midnight hours). A broad minimum and maximum in the scintillation occurrence appears to occur over both the stations, respectively, during the June solstice (winter) and December solstice (summer) months. The dynamics of the Fresnel-scale irregularities, as investigated from the estimations of the mean zonal drift velocities, reveals that the amplitude of the eastward drifts tends to reduce with the decline in the solar activity. The magnitude of the zonal drift velocities during the December solstice months is larger than during the equinoxes, with the differences being more pronounced at solar maximum years. Other relevant aspects of the observations, with complementary data from a low-latitude ionospheric model, are highlighted and discussed.     

Kohlenwasserstoffgenese in Sedimentgesteinen: Untersuchungen über den thermischen Abbau von Kerogen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der n-Paraffinbildung

Zusammenfassung Proben eines limnischen Ölschiefers eozänen Alters wurden, nachdem die löslichen Kohlenwasserstoffe durch Extraktion entfernt worden waren, in einem Autoklaven während fünf Stunden auf Temperaturen zwischen 190–490° C erhitzt. Dabei bildete sich aus dem unlöslichen Kerogen neues, extrahierbares Material, das vergleichbar ist mit den Extrakten aus tiefversenktem Sedimentgestein. Der ursprüngliche Extrakt des Ölschiefers zeigte eine starke Bevorzugung der höheren, ungeradzahligen n-Paraffine. Die durch den thermischen Abbau neu gebildeten n-Paraffine zeigten ebenfalls eine Bevorzugung, die jedoch mit steigender Versuchstemperatur abnimmt und bei Temperaturen über 300° C erlischt. Der Verlust der Bevorzugung ist auf einen Verdünnungseffekt zurückzuführen.

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Summary Samples of non marine oil shale of Eocene age have been extracted and the extract-free samples were heated for 5 hours in an autoclave at temperatures between 190°–490° C. By the temperature treatment new extractable matter has been formed, that is comparable to extracts of sediments which suffered great depth of burial. The original extract of the oil shale showed a strong predominance of the odd — numbered high molecular n-paraffins. The n-paraffins which were formed by the temperature treatment also showed an odd —predominance. This predominance, however, decreased with increasing temperature of the autoclave and disappeared above 300° C. The disappearance of the odd-predominance can be explained by a diluting effect.

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Résumé Nous avons chauffé des échantillons de schistes petrolifères limnigues de l'éocène pentant 5 heures à des temperatures entre 190°–490° C après avoir eliminés les hydrocarbones solubles par extraction. Nous avons reçu du kérogène insoluble, un materiel de nouveau extractible. Ce materiel est comparable à des extraits de sédiments d'une grande profondeur. L'extrait primaire des schistes petrolifères montrait une préfération des n-paraffines impaires de haute séquence. Les paraffines développés par la dégradation thermique montraient de même une préfération. Mais elle diminue en montant les temperatures et disparait au dessus de 300° C. La perte de cette préfération est explicable par un effet de dilution.

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190° 490° , . .

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Der Gewerkschaft Elwerath in Hannover, im besonderen Herrn Direktor Dr. A.Roll danke ich herzlich für die finanzielle Unterstützung, durch die die Anschaffung eines Gaschromatographen ermöglicht wurde, und für die Überlassung von Probenmaterial aus dem Gifhorner Trog.Der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft bin ich für ihre großzügige personelle und finanzielle Hilfe ebenfalls zu großem Dank verpflichtet.Schließlich möchte ich mich noch bei meinen Mitarbeitern Frau U.Grütze und Herrn cand. geol. H.Wehhner bedanken, die einen großen Teil der Laboratoriumsarbeiten durchführten.     

Concentration of trace gases in the lower troposphere,simultaneously recorded at neighboring alpine stations Part III: Sulfur dioxide,nitrogen dioxide,nitric oxide

Summary The importance of representative and long-term recordings of the trace gases SO₂, NO _x , and NO is explained. Recordings taken under different background conditions and, moreover, simultaneously at neighboring mountain stations, together with other meteorological parameters, are of special interest.The recording stations for the determination of the mentioned gases (a valley station at 740 m a.s.l., a nearby mountain station at 1780 m a.s.l.), the measuring methods, calibration procedures, and zero-air supply are described.The main part deals with the representation of consistent data of trace gases obtained at the two stations (NO only in the valley floor). Special attention was given not only to longterm trends but also to the seasonal and diurnal variations, and to the dependence of the gas concentrations on meteorological parameters. Only on the basis of such a parameterization, the time variations become understandable and the causes can be explained as well as possible. Finally, correlations between the concentrations of the different gas components are shown.With 15 Figures     

The Hadley circulation: assessing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and sparse in-situ estimates

 We present a comparison of the zonal mean meridional circulations derived from monthly in situ data (i.e. radiosondes and ship reports) and from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, a third estimate of the mean meridional circulation is produced by subsampling the reanalysis at the locations where radiosonde and surface ship data are available for the in situ calculation. This third estimate, known as the subsampled estimate, is compared to the complete reanalysis estimate to assess biases in conventional, in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation associated with the sparseness of the data sources (i.e., radiosonde network). The subsampled estimate is also compared to the in situ estimate to assess the biases introduced into the reanalysis product by the numerical model, initialization process and/or indirect data sources such as satellite retrievals. The comparisons suggest that a number of qualitative differences between the in situ and reanalysis estimates are mainly associated with the sparse sampling and simplified interpolation schemes associated with in situ estimates. These differences include: (1) a southern Hadley cell that consistently extends up to 200 hPa in the reanalysis, whereas the bulk of the circulation for the in situ and subsampled estimates tends to be confined to the lower half of the troposphere, (2) more well-defined and consistent poleward limits of the Hadley cells in the reanalysis compared to the in-situ and subsampled estimates, and (3) considerably less variability in magnitude and latitudinal extent of the Ferrel cells and southern polar cell exhibited in the reanalysis estimate compared to the in situ and subsampled estimates. Quantitative comparison shows that the subsampled estimate, relative to the reanalysis estimate, produces a stronger northern Hadley cell (∼20%), a weaker southern Hadley cell (∼20–60%), and weaker Ferrel cells in both hemispheres. These differences stem from poorly measured oceanic regions which necessitate significant interpolation over broad regions. Moreover, they help to pinpoint specific shortcomings in the present and previous in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation. Comparisons between the subsampled and in situ estimates suggest that the subsampled estimate produces a slightly stronger Hadley circulation in both hemispheres, with the relative differences in some seasons as large as 20–30%. 6These differences suggest that the mean meridional circulation associated with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is more energetic than observations suggest. Examination of ENSO-related changes to the Hadley circulation suggest that the in situ and subsampled estimates significantly overestimate the effects of ENSO on the Hadley circulation due to the reliance on sparsely distributed data. While all three estimates capture the large-scale region of low-level equatorial convergence near the dateline that occurs during El Nino, the in situ and subsampled estimates fail to effectively reproduce the large-scale areas of equatorial mass divergence to the west and east of this convergence area, leading to an overestimate of the effects of ENSO on the zonal mean circulation. Received: 16 September 1998 / Accepted: 22 April 1999     

Effect of common point selection on coordinate transformation parameter determination

The use of satellite positioning techniques commonly requires a transformation from a Conventional Terrestrial coordinate system to a Geodetic coordinate system, or vice versa. For such a transformation, the main problem is the determination of transformation parameters between these coordinate systems. The transformation parameters are estimated by a least-squares process using “common” points, i.e., those points whose coordinates are known in both systems. Therefore, the precision of so estimated transformation parameters is closely related to certain characteristics of the common points. In this contribution, we have formulated some theoretical relations between the transformation parameters and the number and the distribution of common points, and corroborated the theoretical results numerically, using a simulated geodetic network.     

Cyanit und Sillimanit in moldanubischen Granuliten

Zusammenfassung Der Cyanit tritt immer nur in biotitfreien Granuliten auf; in den biotitreicheren kommt Sillimanit vor. Der Cyanit gehört einer frühen Kristallisationsphase im polymetamorphen Ablauf der Granulitgenese an und ist immer älter als der Sillimanit. Cyanit kann sich direkt in Sillimanit umwandeln, meistens jedoch wächst der Sillimanit unabhängig von Cyanit. Die Fe-Gehalte beider Aluminiumsilikate werden angegeben und die Granulitgenese kurz diskutiert.

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Kyanite and sillimanite in moldanubian granulites

Summary Kyanite always occurs in granulites free from any biotite; in micaceous granulite kyanite is replaced by sillimanite. Kyanite belongs to an early phase of crystallization with in the polymetamorphic genesis of the granulite complexes, and is therefore older than sillimanite. Sillimanite may grow directly out of kyanite, in most cases, however, sillimanite appears to grow independently from kyanite. The iron-contents of both aluminium-silicates are indicated and the genesis of the granulites is shortly discussed.

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Herrn Prof. DDr.H. Wieseneder zum 65. Geburtstag gewidmet.     

Dissolved noble gases in marine waters

The supersaturation of neon in southeastern Pacific deep sea water is unexpectedly high, 6.6% on the average, while surface waters have values about a factor of two lower. A comparison of neon and argon concentrations indicates the presence of injected air in the deep water. The results from surface samples cannot be reconciled with air injection.     

Zur Kinematik in Quarzgürtelgefügen

Zusammenfassung Die Entstehung von echten Kreuzgürteln kann durch formelle Rotation um die Gefügeachsea oder um die Gefügeachsec erklärt werden; 3 Gefügemerkmale sind für die Analyse dieser beiden Rotationsmöglichkeiten verwendbar: die Lage der optischen Achsen für Rotationsberträge über 30^o, das Zonenstück, das die optische Achse und den Spaltflächenpol beinhaltet und die Lage der optischen Undulationszone in bezug auf die Gefügekoordinaten aBc.Die Zweigürtelbilder stellen nach diesen Untersuchungen nur ein instabiles Zwischenglied innerhalb der Quarztektonitgefüge dar.Mit 11 Textabbildungen