Expert judgment and climate forecasting: A methodological critique of “climate change to the year 2000”

The National Defense University's study of climate change to the year 2000 was based largely on the judgments of the members of two expert panels. Although the study has been widely distributed and apparently read by policy makers in the U.S. and abroad, the method of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment has not been critically reviewed. This paper uses the literature on judgment and subjective probability to evaluate the expert judgment methods used in the study.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Proxies for land plant biomass: closed system pyrolysis of some methoxyphenols

Methoxyphenols can be used as proxies for terrestrial biomass when investigating the chemical changes in lignin during hydrothermal alteration. The closed system microscale pyrolysis of 2-methoxyphenol (2-MOP) and 2,6-dimethoxyphenol (2,6-DMP), in the presence of water vapour, has been studied in borosilicate glass vessels. 2-MOP was heated isothermally at temperatures of 330°C for 96 h and 2,6-DMP was heated isothermally at 300°C for 118 h. Pyrolysis of the model compound 2-MOP gave a simple product distribution which was composed mainly of 1,2-dihydroxybenzene with lower amounts of 2-methylphenol and phenol. The prominent reaction products from heating 2,6-DMP were 1,2-dihydroxy-6-methoxybenzene and 2-methoxy-6-methylphenol, with minor amounts of 2-MOP, 1,2-dihydroxybenzene and 2-methylphenol. The decreasing amounts of 2,6-DMP with heating time and the concomitant increase in the amounts of 1,2-dihydroxy-6-methoxybenzene suggested that demethylation had occurred.