改革开放以来中国农业政策效果的时空计量分析

Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China’s implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China’s new agricultural policy. The results show that China’s agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD’s basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.     

Determination of Realistic and Statistical Value of the Information Gathered from Exploratory Drilling

Unlike other branches of geosciences, exploratory drilling has not been investigated within the framework of an information system; so, the expression “value of exploratory drilling information” (despite its common usage) is vague. This article presents a model for the evaluation of value of the information gathered from exploratory drilling after studying different mineral exploration and exploratory drilling systems within the framework of an “information system.” Although this model does not present the economic value of information, it is a suitable tool for comparing different drilling patterns. The model was verified on the basis of drilling data for the Gol-Gohar XIIA anomaly.     

An Analysis of the Published Mineral Resource Estimates of the Haji-Gak Iron Deposit,Afghanistan

The Haji-Gak iron deposit of eastern Bamyan Province, eastern Afghanistan, was studied extensively and resource calculations were made in the 1960s by Afghan and Russian geologists. Recalculation of the resource estimates verifies the original estimates for categories A (in-place resources known in detail), B (in-place resources known in moderate detail), and C₁ (in-place resources estimated on sparse data), totaling 110.8 Mt, or about 6% of the resources as being supportable for the methods used in the 1960s. C₂ (based on a loose exploration grid with little data) resources are based on one ore grade from one drill hole, and P₂ (prognosis) resources are based on field observations, field measurements, and an ore grade derived from averaging grades from three better sampled ore bodies. C₂ and P₂ resources are 1,659.1 Mt or about 94% of the total resources in the deposit. The vast P₂ resources have not been drilled or sampled to confirm their extent or quality. The purpose of this article is to independently evaluate the resources of the Haji-Gak iron deposit by using the available geologic and mineral resource information including geologic maps and cross sections, sampling data, and the analog-estimating techniques of the 1960s to determine the size and tenor of the deposit.     

New evidence for extreme and persistent terminal medieval drought in California’s Sierra Nevada

The level of Cliff Lake, a small, subalpine, moraine-dammed lake in California’s south central Sierra Nevada, was approximately 5 m lower than present for 50 years or more approximately 600 years ago, this determined by radiocarbon dating of wood recovered from a submerged tree stump found in the lake. This finding corresponds to commensurate data from throughout much of western North America, suggesting the duration and magnitude of terminal medieval megadrought was similar throughout the region. Ultimately this datum helps give credence to the perspective that though late Holocene climate in California was indeed variable, the effects of terminal Medieval megadrought was similar across both time and broad geographic expanse.     

The Sustainable Global Energy Economy: Hydrogen or Silicon?

A sustainable global silicon energy economy is proposed as a potential alternative to the hydrogen economy. This first visualization of a silicon energy economy is based on large-scale and carbon-neutral metallic silicon production from major smelters in North Africa and elsewhere, supplied by desert silica sand and electricity from extensive solar generating systems. The resulting “fuel silicon” is shipped around the world to emission-free silicon power stations for either immediate electricity generation or stockpiling. The high energy density of silicon and its stable storage make it an ideal material for maintaining national economic functioning through security of base load power supply from a renewable source. This contrasts with the present situation of fossil fuel usage with its associated global warming and geopolitical supply uncertainties. Critical technological requirements for the silicon economy are carbon-neutral silicon production and the development of efficient silicon-fired power stations capable of high-temperature rapid oxidation of fuel silicon. A call is made for the development of research effort into these specific engineering issues, and also with respect to large-scale economical solar power generation.     

Do free-ranging domestic goats show ‘landscapes of fear’? Patch use in response to habitat features and predator cues

One factor that influences foraging is predation risk. As a result, herbivores may not use landscapes uniformly due to spatial differences in perceived predation risk. Wild herbivores forage across these ‘landscapes of fear’; however, the extent to which domestic herbivores consider them is generally unknown. Using a grid of artificial food patches and measuring giving up densities (GUDs), we mapped landscapes of fear of free-ranging domestic goats on three substrates. In the first experiment, we related GUDs to landscape variables. Goats preferred feeding in open ground with firm substrate compared to a sandy riverbed or a rocky hillside. We suggest that differences relate to escape potential and the occurrence of ambush sites. Landscape variables that influenced feeding effort were patch visibility and plants next to a patch. In a second experiment, we increased predation risk by adding predator dung and urine into the habitats. In response, feeding effort declined across all three habitats. Furthermore, goats only responded to patch visibility and not plants next to the patches. Better sightlines increase predator detection and allow individuals to see group members. Our results indicate that predation risk influences the extent to which free-ranging domestic herbivores utilise landscapes.     

The geological evolution of southern McMurdo Sound — new evidence from a high-resolution aeromagnetic survey

Magnetic anomaly data are presented from a new helicopter-borne high-resolution aeromagnetic survey in southern McMurdo Sound. Anomaly data have been acquired at a common 305 m elevation above the McMurdo and southern McMurdo ice shelves and draped over the volcanic islands that pin them. The resulting anomaly patterns provide a significant advance in the understanding of the rift related geology beneath the floating ice shelves. More extensive Erebus Volcanic Province (McMurdo Volcanic Group) rocks are indicated along with a significant blanket of glaci-volcaniclastic sediment on the seafloor between the volcanic islands in southern McMurdo Sound. These glaci-volcaniclastic sediments are inferred to originate from former grounding of the southern McMurdo Ice Shelf as a marine ice sheet. A strong N–S fabric is also observed in the anomaly data suggesting that the rift structure observed in the Victoria Land basin persists to the south beneath the McMurdo and southern McMurdo ice shelves. W–N–W transfer faults identified within the Transantarctic Mountain rift flank to the west are not obvious in the aeromagnetic data set, implying that the 'Discovery Accommodation Zone' may be restricted to the region between a southward extension of the range bounding fault that marks the limit of the Victoria Land Basin and the right lateral offset in the Transantarctic Mountain front in southern Victoria Land.     

Elemental (C,N, H and P) and stable isotope (δ<Superscript>15</Superscript>N and δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C) signatures in sediments from Zeekoevlei,South Africa: a record of human intervention in the lake

We used elemental carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and hydrogen ratios (C/N, N/P and H/C) with total organic carbon (TOC) and total phosphorus (TP) as well as stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) to investigate the source and depositional conditions of organic matter in sediments from Zeekoevlei, the largest freshwater lake in South Africa. Typical C/N (10–12), H/C ratios (≥1.7) and δ¹³C_organic values (−22 to −19‰) together with the increase in TOC concentration indicate elevated primary productivity in lower middle (18–22 cm) and top (0–8 cm) sections of the sediment cores. Seepage of nutrients from a nearby waste water treatment plant, rapid urbanization and heavily fertilized farming in the catchments are responsible for the increased productivity. Consistent with this, measured δ¹⁵N_organic values (∼11‰) indicate increased raw sewage input towards the top-section of the core. Although cyanobacterial blooms are evident from the low δ¹⁵N values (∼3‰) in mid-section of the core, they did not outnumber the phytoplankton population. Low N/P ratio (∼0) and high TP (100–2,200 mg l⁻¹) support cyanobacterial growth under N limited condition, and insignificant input of macrophytes towards the organic matter pool. Dredging in 1983, caused sub-aerial exposure of the suspended and surface sediments, and affected organic matter preservation in the upper mid-section (12–14 cm) of the core.