Recent Changes in the Climate At the Dead Sea – a Preliminary Study

In the last decade pan evaporation measured at the Southern Dead Sea has significantly increased. Wind, temperature and humidity measurements at the Dead Sea starting in the 1930s as well as 3-D model simulations all seem to indicate a statistically significant change in the local climate of the Dead Sea region. The potential contribution to this climatic change through the weakening of the local land-sea breeze circulation caused by the reduction in the Dead Sea surface area in 1979–1981, is examined. It is suggested that since the breeze tempers the Dead Sea climate, its weakening has caused the air temperature to increase, the relative humidity to decrease and thus increased the pan evaporation. The climatic changes as implied by the MM4 Mesoscale PSU/NCAR model simulations, seem to fit the observed changes and to suggest a local tendency to the more arid climate that now prevails to the south of the study region.     

Column Amounts of ClONO2, HCl, HNO3, and HF from Ground-Based FTIR Measurements Made Near Kiruna, Sweden, in Late Winter 1994

During SESAME phase I ground-based FTIR measurements were performed atEsrange near Kiruna, Sweden, from 28 January to 26 March 1994. Zenith columnamounts of ClONO₂, HCl, HF, HNO₃,O₃, N₂O, CH₄, and CFC-12 werederived from solar absorption spectra. Time series of ClONO₂and HCl indicate a chlorine activation at the end of January and around 1March. On 1 March a very low amount of HCl of 2.09times; 10¹⁵molec. cm^-2 was detected, probably caused by a second chlorineactivation phase starting from an already decreased amount of HCl. The ratioof column amounts of HCl to ClONO₂ decreased inside the vortexfrom about 1 in January to 0.4 in late March compared to values of about 2outside the vortex. Although the Arctic stratosphere was rather warm in winter1993/94 and PSCs occurred seldom, chlorine partitioning into its reservoirspecies HCl and ClONO₂ changed during that winter andClONO₂ is the major chlorine reservoir at the end of thewinter as in cold winters like 1991/92 and 1994/95.     

First-Order Chemistry in the Surface-Flux Layer

We have discussed the behavior of a non-conserved scalar in the stationary, horizontally homogeneous, neutral surface-flux layer and, on the basis of conventional second-order closure, derived analytic expressions for flux and for mean concentration of a gas, subjected to a first-order removal process. The analytic flux solution showed a clear deviation from the constant flux, characterizing a conserved scalar in the surface-flux layer. It decreases with height and is reduced by an order of magnitude of the surface flux at a height equal to about the typical mean distance a molecule can travel before destruction. The predicted mean concentration profile, however, shows only a small deviation from the logarithmic behavior of a conserved scalar. The solution is consistent with assuming a flux-gradient relationship with a turbulent diffusivity corrected by the Damköhler ratio, the ratio of a characteristic turbulent time scale and the scalar mean lifetime. We show that if we use only first-order closure and neglect the effect of the Damköhler ratio on the turbulent diffusivity we obtain another analytic solution for the profiles of the flux and the mean concentration which, from an experimental point of view, is indistinguishable from the first analytic solution. We have discussed two cases where the model should apply, namely NO which, by night, is irreversibly destroyed by interaction with mainly O₃ and the radioactive ²²⁰Rn. Only in the last case was it possible to find data to shed light on the validity of our predictions. The agreement seemed such that a falsification of our model was impossible. It is shown how the model can be used to predict the surface flux of ²²⁰Rn from measured concentration profiles.     

On the Spatial Distribution and Seasonal Variation of Lower-Troposphere Ozone over Europe

Surface ozone data from 25 Europeanlow-altitude sites and mountain sites located between79°N and 28°N were studied. The analysiscovered the time period March 1989–February 1993.Average summer and winter O₃ concentrations inthe boundary layer over the continent gave rise togradients that were strongest in the north-west tosouth-east direction and west-east direction, respectively. WintertimeO₃ ranged from 19 to 27 ppbover the continent, compared to about 32 ppb at thewestern border, while for summer the continentalO₃ values ranged between 39 and 56 ppb and theoceanic mixing ratios were around 37 ppb. In the lowerfree troposphere average wintertime O₃ mixingratios were around 38 ppb, with only an 8 ppbdifference between 28°N and 79°N. For summerthe average O₃ levels decreased from about 55 ppbover Central Europe to 32 ppb at 79°N. Inaddition, O₃ and O_x(= O₃ + NO₂)in polluted and clean air were compared. Theamplitudes of the seasonal ozone variations increasedin the north-west to south-east direction, while thetime of the annual maximum was shifted from spring (atthe northerly sites) to late summer (at sites inAustria and Hungary), which reflected the contributionof photochemical ozone production in the lower partsof the troposphere.     

Reactive Nitrogen Compounds at Spitsbergen in the Norwegian Arctic

Simultaneousindependent measurements of NO_y and NO_x(NO_x= NO + NO₂) by high-sensitivitychemiluminescence systems and of PAN (peroxyacetylnitrate) and PPN (peroxypropionyl nitrate) by GC-ECDwere made at Spitsbergen in the Norwegian Arcticduring the first half year of 1994. The average mixingratio of the sum of PAN and PPN (denoted PANs)increased from around 150 pptv in early winter to amaximum of around 500 pptv in late March, whereasepisodic peak values reached 800 pptv. This occurredsimultaneously with a maximum in ozone which increasedto 45–50 ppbv in March–April. The average NO_xmixing ratio was 27 pptv and did not show any cyclethrough the period. The NO_y mixing ratio showeda maximum in late March, while the difference betweenNO_y and PAN decreased during spring. This is anindication of the dominance of PAN in the NO_ybudget in the Arctic, but possible changes in theefficiency of the NO_y converter could alsocontribute to this. Although most PAN in theArctic is believed to be due to long range transport,the observations indicate local loss and formationrates of up to 1–2 pptv h^-1 in April–May.Measurements of carbonyl compounds suggest thatacetaldehyde was the dominant, local precursor ofPAN.Now at 1.     

SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING

Global assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenically-induced climate change on vector-borne diseases suggests an increase in extent of the geographical areas susceptible to transmission of malarial Plasmodium parasites, dengue Flavivirus and Schistosoma worms. The transmission potential of the three associated vector-borne diseases studied is highly sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the currently endemic areas and at higher altitudes within such areas. Our findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease.     

Observation of gravity waves in a boreal forest

In this paper we report the results of the analysis of two 60-min wave events that occurred in a boreal aspen forest during the 1994 BOREAS (Boreal Ecosystems-Atmosphere Study) field experiment. High frequency wind and temperature data were provided by three 3-D sonic anemometer/thermometers and fourteen fine-wire thermocouples positioned within and above the forest. Wave phase speeds, estimated from information revealed by spectral analysis and linear plane wave equations, are 2.2 and 1.3 m s^-1 for the two events. The wavelengths are 130 m and 65 m respectively and are much larger than the vertical wave displacements. There is strong evidence from the present analysis and from the literature supporting our postulate that these waves are generated by shear instability. We propose that wind shear near the top of the stand is often large enough to reduce the gradient Richardson number below the critical value of 0.25 and thus is able to trigger the instability. When external conditions are favorable, the instability will grow into waves.     

A Mid Cretaceous origin for the Galápagos hotspot: volcanological, petrological and geochemical evidence from Costa Rican oceanic crustal segments

The Quepos, Nicoya and Herradura oceanic igneous terranes in Costa Rica are conspicuous features of a Mid to Late Cretaceous regional magmatic event that encompasses similar terranes in Central America, Colombia, Ecuador and the Caribbean. The Quepos terrane (66?Ma), which consists of ol-cpx phyric, tholeiitic pillow lavas overlain by highly vesicular hyaloclastites, breccias and conglomerates, is interpreted as an uplifted seamount/ocean island complex. The Nicoya (～90?Ma) and Herradura terranes consist of fault-bounded sequences of sediments, tholeiitic volcanics (pillow lavas and massive sheet flows) and plutonic rocks. The volcanic rocks were emplaced at relatively high eruption rates in moderate to deep water, possibly forming part of an oceanic plateau. Major and trace element data from Nicoya/Herradura tholeiites indicate higher melting temperatures than inferred for normal mid-ocean-ridge basalts (MORB) and/or a different source composition. Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic ratios from all three terranes are distinct from MORB but resemble those from the Galápagos hotspot. The volcanological, petrological and geochemical data from Costa Rican volcanic terranes, combined with published age data, paleomagnetic results and plate tectonic reconstructions of this region, provide strong evidence for a Mid Cretaceous (～90Ma) age for the Galápagos hotspot, making it one of the oldest known, active hotspots on Earth. Our results also support an origin of the Caribbean Plate through melting of the head of the Galápagos starting plume.     

Seismic observations at an overstep of the western North Anatolian Fault (Abant–Sapanca region, Turkey)

The course of the active North Anatolian Fault system from Lake Abant to Lake Sapanca was traced by its high micro-earthquake activity. If approaching from the east this section includes a broad south to north overstep (fault offset) of the main fault. Local seismicity has been recorded in this area by a semi-permanent network of 8 stations since 1985 within the frame of the Turkish–German Joint Project for Earthquake Research. The effect of the overstep and its complex fracture kinematics are reflected by the seismicity distribution, the variations of composite fault-plane solutions, and by the spatial coda-Q distribution. Areas of different stress orientation can be distinguished and assigned to different groups of faults. The stresses and the tectonic pattern only in part correspond to a simple model of an extensional overstep and its correlative pull-apart basin. Other types of deformation involved are characterized by normal faulting on faults parallel to the general course of the main strike-slip fault and by synthetic strike-slip faults oriented similar to Riedel shears. Shear deformation by this fault group widely distributed in an area north and east of the main fault line may play an important role in the evolution of the overstep. The development of a pull-apart basin is inhibited along the eastern half of the overstep and compatibility of both strands of the main fault (Bolu–Lake Abant and Lake Sapanca– Izmit–Marmara Sea) seems to be achieved with the aid of the fault systems mentioned. The extension of the missing part of the pull-apart basin seems to be displaced to positions remote from the Lake Abant–Lake Sapanca main fault line, i.e. to the Akyaz?–Düzce basin tract. Highest Q-values (lowest attenuation of seismic waves) were found in the zone of highest seismicity north and west of the overstep which is the zone of strongest horizontal tension. If high coda-Q is an indicator for strong scattering of seismic waves it might be related to extensional opening of fractures.