A theoretical analysis of the observed variability of the geomagnetic dipole field

We present a detailed analysis of the Sint-800 virtual axial dipole moment (VADM) data in terms of an Ω mean field model of the geodynamo that features a non-steady generation of poloidal from toroidal magnetic field. The result is a variable excitation of the dipole mode and the overtones, and there are occasional dipole reversals. The model permits a theoretical evaluation of the statistical properties of the dipole mode. We show that the model correctly predicts the distribution of the VADM and the autocorrelation function inferred from the Sint-800 data. The autocorrelation technique allows us to determine the turbulent diffusion time τ_d=R²/β of the geodynamo. We find that τ_d is about 10–15 kyr. The model is able to reproduce the observed secular variation of the dipole mode, and the mean time between successive dipole reversals. On the other hand, the duration of a reversal is a factor 2 too long. This could be due to imperfections in the model or to unknown systematics in the Sint-800 data. The use of mean field theory is shown to be selfconsistent.     

Probing mid-mantle heterogeneity using PKP coda waves

We investigate the utility of PKP coda waves for studying weak scattering from small-scale heterogeneity in the mid-mantle. Coda waves are potentially a useful probe of heterogeneity in the mid-mantle because they are not preferentially scattered near the CMB, as PKP precursors are, but are sensitive to scattering at all depths. PKP coda waves have not been used for this purpose historically because of interference with other late-arriving energy due to near-surface resonance and scattering. Any study of deep mantle scattering using coda waves requires the removal of near-surface effects from the data. We have analyzed 3624 recordings of PKP precursors and coda made by stations in the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) Global Seismographic Network (GSN). To study the range and time dependence of the scattered waves, we binned and stacked envelopes of the recordings. We have considered precursors that arrive within a 20 s window before PKP and coda waves in a 60 s window after PKP. The PKP scattered waves increase in amplitude rapidly with range as predicted by scattering theory. At ranges below 125°, we predict and observe essentially no scattered energy preceding PKP. Coda amplitudes at these ranges are independent of range and provide an estimate of energy due to near-surface effects that we can expect at all ranges. We use the average coda amplitude at ranges from 120 to 125° to correct coda amplitudes at other ranges. PKP coda waves show a strong dependence on time and range and are clearly influenced by scattering in the lower mantle. PKP coda waves, however, do not provide a tighter constraint on the vertical distribution of mantle heterogeneity than is provided by precursors. This is due, in part, to relatively large scatter in coda amplitudes as revealed by a resampling analysis. Modeling using Rayleigh–Born scattering theory and an exponential autocorrelation function shows that PKP coda amplitudes are not highly sensitive to the vertical distribution of heterogeneity in the mantle. To illustrate this we consider single-scattering in two extreme models of mantle heterogeneity. One allows heterogeneity just at the CMB; the other includes heterogeneity throughout the mantle. The amplitudes of precursors are tightly constrained by our stack and support our earlier conclusion that small-scale heterogeneity is uniformly distributed throughout the lower mantle. The best-fit model includes 8 km scale length heterogeneity with an rms velocity contrast throughout the mantle of 1%.     

Identification of Mining Blasts at Mid- to Far-regional Distances Using Low Frequency Seismic Signals

—?This paper reports results from two recent monitoring experiments in Wyoming. Broadband seismic recordings of kiloton class delay-fired cast blasts and instantaneous calibration shots in the Black Thunder coal mine were made at four azimuths at ranges from 1° to 2°. The primary focus of this experiment was to observe and to explain low-frequency signals that can be seen at all azimuths and should routinely propagate above noise to mid-regional distances where most events will be recorded by International Monitoring System (IMS) stations.¶The recordings clearly demonstrate that large millisecond delay-fired cast blasts routinely produce seismic signals that have significant spectral modulations below 10?Hz. These modulations are independent of time, the azimuth from the source and the orientation of the sensor. Low-frequency modulations below 5?Hz are seen beyond 9°. The modulations are not due to resonance as they are not produced by the calibration shots. Linear elastic modeling of the blasts that is guided by mine-blast reports fails to reproduce the fine detail of these modulations but clearly indicates that the enhanced “spectral roughness” is due to long interrow delays and source finiteness. The mismatch between the data and the synthetics is likely due to source processes, such as nonlinear interactions between shots, that are poorly understood and to other effects, such as variations of shot time and yield from planned values, that are known to be omnipresent but cannot be described accurately. A variant of the Automated Time-Frequency Discriminant (Hedlin, 1998b), which uses low-frequency spectral modulations, effectively separates these events from the calibration shots.¶The experiment also provided evidence that kiloton class cast blasts consistently yield energetic 2–10 second surface waves. The surface waves are strongly dependent on azimuth but are seen beyond 9°. Physical modeling of these events indicates that the surface waves are due mainly to the extended source duration and to a lesser extent to the slap-down of spalled material. The directionality is largely a path effect. A discriminant that is based on the partitioning of energy between surface and body waves routinely separates these events from the calibration shots.¶The Powder River Basin has essentially no natural seismic activity. How these mining events compare to earthquake observations remains to be determined.     

Common-Reflection-Surface Stack for Converted Waves

The finite-offset (FO) common-reflection-surface (CRS) stack has been shown to be able to handle not only P-P or S-S but also arbitrarily converted reflections. It can provide different stack sections such as common-offset (CO), common-midpoint (CMP) and common-shot (CS) sections with significantly increased signal-to-noise ratio from the multi-coverage pre-stack seismic data in a data-driven way. It is our purpose in this paper to demonstrate the performance of the FO CRS stack on data involving converted waves in inhomogeneous layered media. In order to do this we apply the FO CRS stack for common-offset to a synthetic seismic data set involving P-P as well as P-S converted primary reflections. We show that the FO CRS stack yields convincing improvement of the image quality in the presence of noisy data and successfully extracts kinematic wavefield attributes useful for further analyses. The extracted emergence angle information is used to achieve a complete separation of the wavefield into its P-P and P-S wave components, given the FO CRS stacked horizontal and vertical component sections.     

Mantle Convection Modeling with Viscoelastic/Brittle Lithosphere: Numerical Methodology and Plate Tectonic Modeling

--The earth's tectonic plates are strong, viscoelastic shells which make up the outermost part of a thermally convecting, predominantly viscous layer. Brittle failure of the lithosphere occurs when stresses are high. In order to build a realistic simulation of the planet's evolution, the complete viscoelastic/brittle convection system needs to be considered. A particle-in-cell finite element method is demonstrated which can simulate very large deformation viscoelasticity with a strain-dependent yield stress. This is applied to a plate-deformation problem. Numerical accuracy is demonstrated relative to analytic benchmarks, and the characteristics of the method are discussed.     

3-D Viscoelastic FEM Modeling of Crustal Deformation in Northeast Japan

-- As a first step toward establishing a standard earthquake cycle model in Japan, we simulate the crustal deformation during the past 100 years in northeast Japan, using a 3-D FEM based on the kinematic model. Then, we compare the computed results with the observed long-term leveling data and the recent GPS data. On the whole, although the effect of the subducting PAC is dominant, coseismic deformation of the interplate earthquakes can be clearly seen in the inland. Moreover, the postseismic deformation of the earthquakes due to the viscoelastic upper mantle seriously affects the inland movements, and continues for a few decades. Our modeling, including the effects of the interplate earthquakes and the three-dimensional viscoelastic inhomogeneity, reasonably explains the observed movement. Finally, we stress that the viscoelastic effect should be taken into consideration in the analyses, even if no earthquakes occur in the analyzed period.     

Evaluation of Subsurface Structure at Soultz Hot Dry Rock Site by the AE Reflection Method in Time-frequency Domain

—?Because the Soultz Hot Dry Rock (HDR) site, France, is to be expanded to a scientific pilot plant of greater depth, measurement of the deep area below the predeveloped artificial reservoir is gaining importance. In this paper, we present estimates of deep subsurface structure at the Soultz HDR site, obtained by a reflection method using acoustic emission (AE) signals, that is, induced seismicity, as the wave source. First, we briefly describe the AE reflection method in the time-frequency domain with wavelet transform. Then we show estimates of the subsurface structure by using 101 high-energy AE events observed in 1993. We compare and discuss the results obtained, using the AE reflection method in two wells with other independent borehole observations. Furthermore, we present the results of an investigation of the frequency dependence of reflectors identified by hodogram linearity as a possible means of further characterizing detected structures.     

Microseismicity Induced by Heavy Rainfall Around Flooded Vertical Ore Veins

—?Microseismicity (M?M?M?M??6 were also monitored at a crustal movement monitoring station located several hundred meters from the veins. It was found that the opening of the vertical ore veins primary led to significant strain and tilt, but not to seismicity, because the delay and the longer duration of the seismicity were significant. Most seismic events involve thrusting mechanisms that are consistent with the present stress state of E-W-oriented tectonic compression, but are not consistent with the opening of the deepest ore vein. Interstingly, all the events within a few months of the heavy rainfall occurred near the faults that offset the deepest ore veins, wheareas all those events located away from the deepest ore veins occurred many months after the heavy rainfall. Consequently, the delayed diffusion of water appears to have played a dominant role in reducing rock strength, which led to seismicity in the Ikuno mine.     

Some Aspects of Resource Uncertainty and Their Economic Consequences in Assessment of the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Natural Resources Research - Exploration ventures in frontier areas have high risks. Before committing to them, firms prepare regional resource assessments to evaluate the potential payoffs. With...