Zweifache Spiralen im tropischen Wirbelsturm

Zusammenfassung Orkan und Taifun werden als aus logarithmisch gekrümmten Austauschwalzen aufgehaut betrachtet. Sie bestehen aus doppelten Spiralen, entstanden beim Zusammentreffen zweier Luftströme: der im Zentrum röhrenförmig aufsteigenden tropischen Warmluft und einer zweiten horizontalen Komponente. Einige Merkmale, wie Art der Regenfälle, Art der elektrischen Entladungen, die Wolkenbilder und die Schleppe, passen zu dieser Vorstellung.

---

Summary Hurricane and typhoon are considered as built up from logarithmically curved exchange cylinders. These bihelices are formed by the confluence of two air-currents: the tropical warm air in shape of a tube rising in the center and a second horizontal component. Some characteristics such as the shape of the rainfalls and of the electrical discharges, the species of clouds and the train are in agreement with this conception.

---

Résumé Ouragan et typhon sont regardés comme construits par cylindres échangeants — courbées dans un sens logarithmique. Ils se composent d'hélices doubles formées par le confluent de deux courants d'air: de l'air chaud tropical ascendant dans le centre sous forme d'un tube et d'une deuxième composante horizontale. Quelque caractéristiques comme la forme des chutes de pluie et des décharges électriques, les formations des nuages et la traîne sont en bon accord avec ce concept.

---

---

Mit 4 Textabbildungen     

Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: An overview and analysis of isomorphisms

This article identifies and analyzes several points of similarity in the structure and context of forecasting in the social and natural sciences. These include: the limits of identities or universal laws as a basis for forecasts; the corresponding need for simplifying parametric representations of one or more of the variables that enter into identities; various sources of uncertainty about parameterizations; intrinsic limitations on predictability or forecasting accuracy in large-scale systems; the need for sensitivity analyses of model responses to changes in exogenous variables and/or parametric structures; problems of model linkage; and the social (organizational and political) context of forecasts. Suggestions for future lines of inquiry are made in each case. Several of these are such that they can benefit from a sharing of experience and expertise across disciplinary lines.The research reported herein was supported in part by the IC² Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, and in part by National Science Foundation Grant Number SES-8411702. However, the opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsoring organizations. We appreciate the advice and comments of Jesse H. Ausubel, Robert S. Chen, Judith Jacobsen, and Richard C. Rockwell on earlier versions of this paper.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Oxygen isotopic variations of snowfall from winter storms in the central Sierra Nevada; Relation to ice growth microphysics and mesoscale structure

Observations have been made of the ice-crystal morphology of snow which fell at two sampling sites during a warm front followed by a cold front in the Sierra Nevada of the western United States. The snow sampling and ice crystal observations were conducted at Kingvale (KV) and Hobart Mills (HM), California, which are located at almost identical elevations on the upwind and down wind sides of the Sierra Nevada crest, respectively.These observations and several mesoscale features of one of the storms, have been used to study the substantial changes which occurred in the stable oxygen isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O) of the precipitation at the two sites.At the beginning of the period of observation, a low level warm front lay across the region and its elevation lowered with time from 2.5 km to 1.7 km. This decrease of the frontal surface height was accompanied by a steady increase in the δ¹⁸O values.In the pre-cold frontal passage time periods, the δ¹⁸O values at the upwind site signified warmer origin ice crystal morphology than the downwind site. This is explained by orographic effects and the production of supercooled liquid water at low elevations on the upslope side of the Sierra Nevada.During the passage of the surface cold front, the differences in δ¹⁸O at the two sites were quite small probably because the orography plays a less significant role in the precipitation production process during such events.The δ¹⁸O peaked around −13% which translates to an “equivalent temperature” of −10.7°C for ice phase water capture at the upwind site KV. At site HM downwind of the Sierra crest, and 25 km east of KV, the weighted mean ice phase water capture occurred at elevations some 5 to 6°C colder than at KV, because of subsidence and loss of supercooled liquid water in the lower elevations on the lee side.     

An explanation for the difference between twentieth and twenty-first century land–sea warming ratio in climate models

A land–sea surface warming ratio (or φ) that exceeds unity is a robust feature of both observed and modelled climate change. Interestingly, though climate models have differing values for φ, it remains almost time-invariant for a wide range of twenty-first century climate transient warming scenarios, while varying in simulations of the twentieth century. Here, we present an explanation for time-invariant land–sea warming ratio that applies if three conditions on radiative forcing are met: first, spatial variations in the climate forcing must be sufficiently small that the lower free troposphere warms evenly over land and ocean; second, the temperature response must not be large enough to change the global circulation to zeroth order; third, the temperature response must not be large enough to modify the boundary layer amplification mechanisms that contribute to making φ exceed unity. Projected temperature changes over this century are too small to breach the latter two conditions. Hence, the mechanism appears to show why both twenty-first century and time-invariant CO₂ forcing lead to similar values of φ in climate models despite the presence of transient ocean heat uptake, whereas twentieth century forcing—which has a significant spatially confined anthropogenic tropospheric aerosol component that breaches the first condition—leads to modelled values of φ that vary widely amongst models and in time. Our results suggest an explanation for the behaviour of φ when climate is forced by other regionally confined forcing scenarios such as geo-engineered changes to oceanic clouds. Our results show how land–sea contrasts in surface and boundary layer characteristics act in tandem to produce the land–sea surface warming contrast.     

A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium

A climate response function is introduced that consists of six exponential (low-pass) filters with weights depending as a power law on their e-folding times. The response of this two-parameter function to the combined forcings of solar irradiance, greenhouse gases, and SO₂-related aerosols is fitted simultaneously to reconstructed temperatures of the past millennium, the response to solar cycles, the response to the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and the modern 1850–2010 temperature trend. Assuming strong long-term modulation of solar irradiance, the quite adequate fit produces a climate response function with a millennium-scale response to doubled CO₂ concentration of 2.0 ± 0.3 °C (mean ± standard error), of which about 50 % is realized with e-folding times of 0.5 and 2 years, about 30 % with e-folding times of 8 and 32 years, and about 20 % with e-folding times of 128 and 512 years. The transient climate response (response after 70 years of 1 % yearly rise of CO₂ concentration) is 1.5 ± 0.2 °C. The temperature rise from 1820 to 1950 can be attributed for about 70 % to increased solar irradiance, while the temperature changes after 1950 are almost completely produced by the interplay of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. The SO₂-related forcing produces a small temperature drop in the years 1950–1970 and an inflection of the temperature curve around the year 2000. Fitting with a tenfold smaller modulation of solar irradiance produces a less adequate fit with millennium-scale and transient climate responses of 2.5 ± 0.4 and 1.9 ± 0.3 °C, respectively.     

Unique isoprene oxidation products demonstrate chlorine atom chemistry occurs in the Houston,Texas urban area

As part of the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS), we studied the isoprene oxidation process under ambient conditions to discern the presence of chlorine atom (Cl) chemistry in the Houston, Texas urban area. By measuring chloromethylbutenone (CMBO) and an isomer of chloromethylbutenal (CMBA), we clearly observed sixteen episodes of active Cl chemistry during the 24-day experiment. Estimated median Cl concentration during each of these episodes was between the detection limit of ~10² atoms cm⁻³ and 50 _{- 30} ^{+ 70} ×10⁴ 50_{ - 30}^{ + 70} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³. Cl concentration during all the episodes averaged 7.6 _{- 2.0} ^{+ 4.7} ×10⁴ 7.6_{ - 2.0}^{ + 4.7} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³ and thus amounted to less than 3% of the OH concentration during the same periods. During the episodes, the fraction of oxidation chemistry initiated by Cl ranged from 3–43% and was strongly dependent on the quantity and type of hydrocarbons present in the atmosphere. Because of its intermittent presence and low concentration, Cl is not a broadly influential oxidant in the Houston, Texas urban area.     

Coupled model simulations of boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability, Part 1: Systematic errors and caution on use of metrics

Boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability (BSISV) over the Asian monsoon region is more complex than its boreal winter counterpart, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), since it also exhibits northward and northwestward propagating convective components near India and over the west Pacific. Here we analyze the BSISV in the CMIP3 and two CMIP2+ coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Though most models exhibit eastward propagation of convective anomalies over the Indian Ocean, difficulty remains in simulating the life cycle of the BSISV, as few represent its eastward extension into the western/central Pacific. As such, few models produce statistically significant anomalies that comprise the northwest to southeast tilted convection, which results from the forced Rossby waves that are excited by the near-equatorial convective anomalies. Our results indicate that it is a necessary, but not sufficient condition, that the locations the time-mean monsoon heat sources and the easterly wind shear be simulated correctly in order for the life cycle of the BSISV to be represented realistically. Extreme caution is needed when using metrics, such as the pattern correlation, for assessing the fidelity of model performance, as models with the most physically realistic BSISV do not necessarily exhibit the highest pattern correlations with observations. Furthermore, diagnostic latitude-time plots to evaluate the northward propagation of convection from the equator to India and the Bay of Bengal also need to be used with caution. Here, incorrectly representing extratropical–tropical interactions can give rise to “apparent” northward propagation when none exists in association with the eastward propagating equatorial convection. Despite these cautions, the use of multiple cross-checking diagnostics enables the fidelity of the simulation of the BSISV to be meaningfully assessed.     

Estimating the error in vertically interpolated forecast‐observation differences: U‐ and v‐wind components

Abstract

Data assimilation in numerical weather forecasting corrects current forecast values by subtracting a portion of interpolated forecast‐minus‐observation differences at the points of a three‐dimensional grid. Deviations used in updating a forecast data field are forecast errors obtained or derived from observations available at update time. When observations are missing at mandatory levels, construction of full vertical soundings by interpolation introduces extraneous errors. The present paper is concerned with determination of the error in vertical extrapolations of surface winds, and of aircraft and satellite cloud‐tracked winds. In addition it examines the effect on accuracy of using location‐specific statistics compared to averaged statistics as the basis for the interpolation weighting scheme and compares errors of one‐ and two‐variable interpolations.

Interpolation accuracy tests demonstrate the influence of the interpolation scheme on the quality of interpolated information used in forecast updating. The results show that the level of accuracy exceeds the benchmark provided by monthly mean forecast error values only with bivariate interpolation of wind components from off‐level data sources.     

Testing a radiative upper boundar condition in a nonlinear model with hybrid vertical coordinate

Summary The application of a radiative upper boundary condition (RUBC) in a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with hybrid vertical coordinate is presented. Results of two- and three-dimensional numerical simulations are discussed. Starting from earlier work by Klemp and Durran (1983) and Bougeault (1983) the radiative upper boundary condition is formally derived for a hybrid vertical coordinate. The basic assumptions include hydrostaticity, linearity, neglect of Coriolis effects and restriction to internal gravity waves. The resulting RUBC is global in space and local in time. In a second step. the RUBC is tested in a twodimensional vertical-plane version of the NWP model, in which essential properties of the full three-dimensional model have been preserved. Gravity wave experiments clearly show the superiority of the RUBC over the commonly used lid-type upper boundary condition. For the setting with an isolated bell-shaped mountain with resolution-independent steepness, the RUBC tends to work more effectively with increasing horizontal resolution. At the same time, the application of a radiative instead of a lid-type, and thus reflecting, upper boundary condition appears to become more important with decreasing mesh width. Finally, the RUBC is introduced into the full three-dimensional NWP model. This requires further approximations. In particular for a limited-area model, the geopotential field at the uppermost model level needs to be bi-periodic. Here, a linear detrending technique is applied. First results for a weather situation with strong northwesterly flow towards the Alps show that application of the RUBC drastically reduces the development of unrealistic standing, hydrostatic mountain waves, which become apprent as distinct mesoscale ridge-trough structures in the simulation with the lid-type upper boundary. Implications of the RUBC on the time-stepping procedure of the NWP model are also discussed. In the experiments whown, the additional RUBC-terms are treated explicitly.     

Stable boundary layers: observations,models and variability part II: Data analysis and averaging effects

As argued in Part I (Derbyshire, 1995), variability is a key issue in stable boundary layers, and differences in variability between observations and idealized models may imply sytematic biases. Here we discuss how data analysis can be geared to allow for variability and thus consistency with models. Instrumental errors, smoothing methods and vertical discretization are considered. We then show how statistical averaging broadly improves the agreement of heterogeneous results in Part I with the Brost-Wyngaard closure. Recommendations are made for the information needed to analyze apparent differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous stable boundary layers.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Processes Research Division