Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions simulated with a complex earth system model

A new complex earth system model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean general circulation model, a three-dimensional ice sheet model, a marine biogeochemistry model, and a dynamic vegetation model was used to study the long-term response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. The prescribed emissions follow estimates of past emissions for the period 1751–2000 and standard IPCC emission scenarios up to the year 2100. After 2100, an exponential decrease of the emissions was assumed. For each of the scenarios, a small ensemble of simulations was carried out. The North Atlantic overturning collapsed in the high emission scenario (A2) simulations. In the low emission scenario (B1), only a temporary weakening of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic is predicted. The moderate emission scenario (A1B) brings the system close to its bifurcation point, with three out of five runs leading to a collapsed North Atlantic overturning circulation. The atmospheric moisture transport predominantly contributes to the collapse of the deep water formation. In the simulations with collapsed deep water formation in the North Atlantic a substantial cooling over parts of the North Atlantic is simulated. Anthropogenic climate change substantially reduces the ability of land and ocean to sequester anthropogenic carbon. The simulated effect of a collapse of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration turned out to be relatively small. The volume of the Greenland ice sheet is reduced, but its contribution to global mean sea level is almost counterbalanced by the growth of the Antarctic ice sheet due to enhanced snowfall. The modifications of the high latitude freshwater input due to the simulated changes in mass balance of the ice sheet are one order of magnitude smaller than the changes due to atmospheric moisture transport. After the year 3000, the global mean surface temperature is predicted to be almost constant due to the compensating effects of decreasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to oceanic uptake and delayed response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations before.     

Oscillations in radiation-driven outflows

In this paper we investigate the dynamical behaviour of radiation-driven winds, specifically winds that arise when Compton scattering transfers momentum from the radiation field to the gas flow. Such winds occur during strong X-ray bursts from slowly accreting neutron stars, and also may be driven from the inner regions of a black hole or neutron star accretion disc when the mass transfer rate is very high. By linearizing the radiation hydrodynamic equations around steady spherical outflow, we evaluate the time-dependent response of these winds to perturbations introduced at their inner boundaries. We find that although radiation-driven winds are generally stable, they act as mechanical filters that should produce quasi-periodic oscillations or peaked noise in their radiation output when perturbations force them stochastically. This behaviour may underlie the photospheric oscillations observed in some strong Type I X-ray bursts.     

Non‐unique stratal geometries: implications for sequence stratigraphic interpretations

There is now strong evidence that stratal geometries on basin margins are most likely a consequence of multiple controls, not just variations in accommodation. Consequently, correct sequence stratigraphic interpretation of stratal geometries requires an understanding of how multiple different controls may generate similar geometries. Using a simple numerical stratigraphic forward model, we explore the impact of time variable sediment supply and different sediment transport rates on stratal geometries. We demonstrate how four common types of stratal geometry can form by more than one set of controlling parameter values and are thus likely to be non‐unique, meaning that there may be several sets of controlling factors that can plausibly explain their formation. For example, a maximum transgressive surface can occur in the model due to an increase in rate of relative sea‐level rise during constant sediment supply, and due to a reduction in rate of sediment supply during a constant rate of relative sea‐level rise. Sequence boundaries, topset aggradation and shoreline trajectories are also examples of non‐unique stratal geometries. If the model simulations in this work are sufficiently realistic, then the modelled stratal geometries are important examples of non‐uniqueness, suggesting the need for a shift towards sequence stratigraphic methods based on constructing and evaluating multiple hypotheses and scenarios.     

27Al, 29Si,and 23Na MAS NMR study of an Al,Si ordered alkali feldspar solid solution series

Solid-state ²⁷Al, ²⁹Si and ²³Na MAS NMR spectra have been obtained for an Al,Si ordered low albite to low microcline ion exchange series for which unit-cell parameters and ²⁹Si NMR data have previously been reported. ²⁷Al δ_i vary continuously with composition from 63.4 (±0.5) ppm for albite to 58.9 (±0.5) ppm for microcline, and parallel the ²⁹Si chemical shifts assigned to the T2m-site. The ²⁷Al and ²⁹Si chemical shifts for this series correlate well with composition-dependent lattice parameters, most notably cell volume and the angle [201]¹b. The linewidths of the ²⁹Si and ²⁷Al resonances indicate a significant amount of structural disorder in the intermediate compositions due to Na, K substitution. The 1 σ width of the distribution of average Si-O-T angles for each T-site is estimated to be about 1° for the Or33 sample. The average ²³Na δ_i varies monotonically from -8.5 (±1) ppm for albite to -24.3 (±1)ppm for Or83. Similarly, the average ²³Na nuclear quadrupole coupling constant decreases from 2.60 to 1.15 (±0.05) MHz and the asymmetry parameter of the electric field gradient increases from 0.25 to 0.6 with increasing K-content from albite to Or83. The observed variations in the quadrupole coupling parameters are consistent with simple electrostatic calculations. Higher resolution ²³Na spectra of the intermediate compositions obtained at 11.7 T indicate the presence of an inhomogeneous linebroadening which is related to the distribution of Na-environments. A model based on a random distribution of local compositions does not simulate the spectra, suggesting that the distribution of Na is skewed toward Na-rich clusters. Observation of the ²³Na NMR lineshape of Or49 after short periods of heat treatment indicate that ²³Na NMR is very sensitive to the changes in the Na, K distribution accompanying the early stages of exsolution. Reversible changes occur after heating at 530° C for 3 h, whereas heating at 600° C produces no changes, possibly bracketing the position of the coherent spinodal for Al, Si ordered alkali feldspars at this composition.     

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Oxaya anticline (northern Chile): a buckle enhanced by river incision?

A prominent structure in the Western Escarpment of the Andes of northern Chile is the Oxaya anticline, dissected at the culmination by >1500 m deep valleys. The distribution of fault and fold structures indicates that the anticline could represent a simple buckle. Buckling thus appears to have accommodated crustal shortening in the plate overriding the subducting plate, between the trench and the Western Cordillera. Cross-cutting relationships between structures and dated strata indicated that the time interval of enhanced buckling coincides with the period when rates of valley formation were enhanced. We thus propose that the formation of this anticline was enhanced by fluvial incision, which is consistent with the results of published theoretical models.