Estimating uncertainty associated with water stages from a single SAR image

It is the goal of remote sensing to infer information about objects or a natural process from a remote location. This invokes that uncertainty in measurement should be viewed as central to remote sensing. In this study, the uncertainty associated with water stages derived from a single SAR image for the Alzette (G.D. of Luxembourg) 2003 flood is assessed using a stepped GLUE procedure. Main uncertain input factors to the SAR processing chain for estimating water stages include geolocation accuracy, spatial filter window size, image thresholding value, DEM vertical precision and the number of river cross sections at which water stages are estimated. Initial results show that even with plausible parameter values uncertainty in water stages over the entire river reach is 2.8 m on average. Adding spatially distributed field water stages to the GLUE analysis following a one-at-a-time approach helps to considerably reduce SAR water stage uncertainty (0.6 m on average) thereby identifying appropriate value ranges for each uncertain SAR water stage processing factor. For the GLUE analysis a Nash-like efficiency criterion adapted to spatial data is proposed whereby acceptable SAR model simulations are required to outperform a simpler regression model based on the field-surveyed average river bed gradient. Weighted CDFs for all factors based on the proposed efficiency criterion allow the generation of reliable uncertainty quantile ranges and 2D maps that show the uncertainty associated with SAR-derived water stages. The stepped GLUE procedure demonstrated that not all field data collected are necessary to achieve maximum constraining. A possible efficient way to decide on relevant locations at which to sample in the field is proposed. It is also suggested that the resulting uncertainty ranges and flood extent or depth maps may be used to evaluate 1D or 2D flood inundation models in terms of water stages, depths or extents. For this, the extended GLUE approach, which copes with the presence of uncertainty in the observed data, may be adopted.     

Non‐unique stratal geometries: implications for sequence stratigraphic interpretations

There is now strong evidence that stratal geometries on basin margins are most likely a consequence of multiple controls, not just variations in accommodation. Consequently, correct sequence stratigraphic interpretation of stratal geometries requires an understanding of how multiple different controls may generate similar geometries. Using a simple numerical stratigraphic forward model, we explore the impact of time variable sediment supply and different sediment transport rates on stratal geometries. We demonstrate how four common types of stratal geometry can form by more than one set of controlling parameter values and are thus likely to be non‐unique, meaning that there may be several sets of controlling factors that can plausibly explain their formation. For example, a maximum transgressive surface can occur in the model due to an increase in rate of relative sea‐level rise during constant sediment supply, and due to a reduction in rate of sediment supply during a constant rate of relative sea‐level rise. Sequence boundaries, topset aggradation and shoreline trajectories are also examples of non‐unique stratal geometries. If the model simulations in this work are sufficiently realistic, then the modelled stratal geometries are important examples of non‐uniqueness, suggesting the need for a shift towards sequence stratigraphic methods based on constructing and evaluating multiple hypotheses and scenarios.     

Climate and climate change in western canada as simulated by the Canadian regional climate model

Abstract

A þrst climate simulation performed with the novel Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented. The CRCM is based on fully elastic non‐hydrostatic þeld equations, which are solved with an efþcient semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian (SISL) marching algorithm, and on the parametrization package of subgrid‐scale physical effects of the second‐generation Canadian Global Climate Model (GCMII). Two 5‐year integrations of the CRCM nested with GCMII simulated data as lateral boundary conditions are made for conditions corresponding to current and doubled CO₂ scenarios. For these simulations the CRCM used a grid size of 45 km on a polar‐stereographic projection, 20 scaled‐height levels and a time step of 15 min; the nesting GCMII has a spectral truncation of T32, 10 hybrid‐pressure levels and a time step of 20 min. These simulations serve to document: (1) the suitability of the SISL numerical scheme for regional climate modelling, (2) the use of GCMII physics at much higher resolution than in the nesting model, (3) the ability of the CRCM to add realistic regional‐scale climate information to global model simulations, and (4) the climate of the CRCM compared to that of GCMII under two greenhouse gases (GHG) scenarios.     

The impact of high altitude aircraft on the ozone layer in the stratosphere

The paper discusses the potential effects on the ozone layer of gases released by the engines of proposed high altitude supersonic aircraft. The major problem arises from the emissions of nitrogen oxides which have the potential to destroy significant quantities of ozone in the stratosphere. The magnitude of the perturbation is highly dependent on the cruise altitude of the aircraft. Furthermore, the depletion of ozone is substantially reduced when heterogeneous conversion of nitrogen oxides into nitric acid on sulfate aerosol particles is taken into account in the calculation. The sensitivity of the aerosol load on stratospheric ozone is investigated. First, the model indicates that the aerosol load induced by the SO₂ released by aircraft is increased by about 10–20% above the background aerosols at mid-high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere at 15 km for the NASA emission scenario A (the NASA emission scenarios are explained in Tables I to III). This increase in aerosol has small effects on stratospheric ozone. Second, when the aerosol load is increased following a volcanic eruption similar to the eruption of El Chichon (Mexico, April 1982), the ozone column in spring increases by as much as 9% in response to the injection of NO _x from the aircraft with the NASA emission scenario A. Finally, the modeled suggests that significant ozone depletion could result from the formation of additional polar stratospheric clouds produced by the injection of H₂O and HNO₃ by the aircraft engines.     

Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions simulated with a complex earth system model

A new complex earth system model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean general circulation model, a three-dimensional ice sheet model, a marine biogeochemistry model, and a dynamic vegetation model was used to study the long-term response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. The prescribed emissions follow estimates of past emissions for the period 1751–2000 and standard IPCC emission scenarios up to the year 2100. After 2100, an exponential decrease of the emissions was assumed. For each of the scenarios, a small ensemble of simulations was carried out. The North Atlantic overturning collapsed in the high emission scenario (A2) simulations. In the low emission scenario (B1), only a temporary weakening of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic is predicted. The moderate emission scenario (A1B) brings the system close to its bifurcation point, with three out of five runs leading to a collapsed North Atlantic overturning circulation. The atmospheric moisture transport predominantly contributes to the collapse of the deep water formation. In the simulations with collapsed deep water formation in the North Atlantic a substantial cooling over parts of the North Atlantic is simulated. Anthropogenic climate change substantially reduces the ability of land and ocean to sequester anthropogenic carbon. The simulated effect of a collapse of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration turned out to be relatively small. The volume of the Greenland ice sheet is reduced, but its contribution to global mean sea level is almost counterbalanced by the growth of the Antarctic ice sheet due to enhanced snowfall. The modifications of the high latitude freshwater input due to the simulated changes in mass balance of the ice sheet are one order of magnitude smaller than the changes due to atmospheric moisture transport. After the year 3000, the global mean surface temperature is predicted to be almost constant due to the compensating effects of decreasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to oceanic uptake and delayed response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations before.     

Stratigraphic modelling of platform architecture and carbonate production: a Messinian case study (Sorbas Basin,SE Spain)

The late Messinian mixed carbonate‐siliciclastic platforms of the Sorbas Basin, known as the Terminal Carbonate Complex, record significant changes in carbonate production and geometry. Their facies and stratigraphic architecture result from complex interactions between base‐level fluctuations, evaporite deformation/dissolution and detrital inputs. A 3D quantitative approach (with DIONISOS software) is used to explore the basin‐scale platform architecture and to quantify the carbonate production of the Terminal Carbonate Complex. The modelling strategy consists in integrating detailed 2D field‐based transects and modern carbonate system parameters (e.g. carbonate production rates, bathymetric and hydrodynamic ranges of production). This approach limits user impact and so provides more objective output results. Tests are carried out on carbonate production rates, subsidence and evaporite deformation/dissolution. Numerical modelling provides accurate predictions of geometries, facies distributions and depositional sequence thicknesses, validated by field data. Comparative statistical testing of the field transects and of the various model outputs are used to discern the relative contribution of the parameters tested to the evolution of basin filling. The 3D visualization and quantification of the main carbonate producers (ooids and microbialites) are discussed in terms of changes in base‐level and detrital supply. This study demonstrates that base‐level fluctuations have the greatest impact on the carbonate budget. Evaporite deformation/dissolution affects the type and amount of carbonate production, inducing a transition from an ooid‐ to microbialite‐dominated system and also has a major effect on stratigraphic architecture by inducing the migration of depocentres. The numerical modelling results obtained using modern carbonate system parameters could also be applied to subsurface ooid‐microbialite reservoirs, and the Terminal Carbonate Complex is a good analogue for such systems.     

Modelling interactions between fold–thrust belt deformation, foreland flexure and surface mass transport

Interactions between fold and thrust belt deformation, foreland flexure and surface mass transport are investigated using a newly developed mathematical model incorporating fully dynamic coupling between mechanics and surface processes. The mechanical model is two dimensional (plane strain) and includes an elasto‐visco‐plastic rheology. The evolving model is flexurally compensated using an elastic beam formulation. Erosion and deposition at the surface are treated in a simple manner using a linear diffusion equation. The model is solved with the finite element method using a Lagrangian scheme with marker particles. Because the model is particle based, it enables straightforward tracking of stratigraphy and exhumation paths and it can sustain very large strain. It is thus ideally suited to study deformation, erosion and sedimentation in fold–thrust belts and foreland basins. The model is used to investigate how fold–thrust deformation and foreland basin development is influenced by the non‐dimensional parameter , which can be interpreted as the ratio of the deformation time scale to the time scale for surface processes. Large values of imply that the rate of surface mass transport is significantly greater than the rate of deformation. When , the rates of surface processes are so slow that one observes a classic propagating fold–thrust belt with well‐developed wedge top basins and a largely underfilled foreland flexural depression. Increasing causes (1) deposition to shift progressively from the wedge top into the foredeep, which deepens and may eventually become filled, (2) widespread exhumation of the fold–thrust belt, (3) reduced rates of frontal thrust propagation and possible attainment of a steady‐state orogen width and (4) change in the style and dynamics of deformation. Together, these effects indicate that erosion and sedimentation, rather than passively responding to tectonics, play an active and dynamic role in the development of fold–thrust belts and foreland basins. Results demonstrate that regional differences in the relative rates of surface processes (e.g. because of different climatic settings) may lead to fold–thrust belts and foreland basins with markedly different characteristics. Results also imply that variations in the efficiency of surface processes through time (e.g., because of climate change or the emergence of orogens above sea level) may cause major temporal changes in orogen and basin dynamics.     

Observational constraints on the chemical and thermal structure of the Earth's deep interior

Summary. The observations of the periods of free oscillation of the Earth provide direct constraints on the density distribution in the Earth. These in turn allow constraints to be placed on the size of departures from a state of adiabaticity and chemical homogeneity. These departures are quantified in terms of a stratification parameter '8' first introduced as an index of chemical homogeneity. The resolving power theory of Backus & Gilbert is used to determine the ability of the observed free oscillations to constrain η in the lower mantle and outer core. The results suggest that the outer core is not strongly chemically stratified although a significantly thermally stable core cannot be excluded. The free oscillations also apparently require a compositional difference between the inner and outer cores.