Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling

The effect of climate change on wildfires constitutes a serious concern in fire-prone regions with complex fire behavior such as the Mediterranean. The coarse resolution of future climate projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs) prevents their direct use in local climate change studies. Statistical downscaling techniques bridge this gap using empirical models that link the synoptic-scale variables from GCMs to the local variables of interest (using e.g. data from meteorological stations). In this paper, we investigate the application of statistical downscaling methods in the context of wildfire research, focusing in the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), one of the most popular fire danger indices. We target on the Iberian Peninsula and Greece and use historical observations of the FWI meteorological drivers (temperature, humidity, wind and precipitation) in several local stations. In particular, we analyze the performance of the analog method, which is a convenient first choice for this problem since it guarantees physical and spatial consistency of the downscaled variables, regardless of their different statistical properties. First we validate the method in perfect model conditions using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Overall, not all variables are downscaled with the same accuracy, with the poorest results (with spatially averaged daily correlations below 0.5) obtained for wind, followed by precipitation. Consequently, those FWI components mostly relying on those parameters exhibit the poorest results. However, those deficiencies are compensated in the resulting FWI values due to the overall high performance of temperature and relative humidity. Then, we check the suitability of the method to downscale control projections (20C3M scenario) from a single GCM (the ECHAM5 model) and compute the downscaled future fire danger projections for the transient A1B scenario. In order to detect problems due to non-stationarities related to climate change, we compare the results with those obtained with a Regional Climate Model (RCM) driven by the same GCM. Although both statistical and dynamical projections exhibit a similar pattern of risk increment in the first half of the 21st century, they diverge during the second half of the century. As a conclusion, we advocate caution in the use of projections for this last period, regardless of the regionalization technique applied.     

The 1877–1878 El Niño episode: associated impacts in South America

At times when attention on climate issues is strongly focused on the assessment of potential impacts of future climate change due to the intensification of the planetary greenhouse effect, it is perhaps pertinent to look back and explore the consequences of past climate variability. In this article we examine a large disruption in global climate that occurred during 1877–1878, when human influence was negligible. The mechanisms explaining this global disturbance are not well established, but there is considerable evidence that the major El Niño episode that started by the end of 1876 and peaked during the 1877–1878 boreal winter contributed significantly to it. The associated regional climate anomalies were extremely destructive, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, where starvation due to intense droughts in Asia, South-East Asia and Africa took the lives of more than 20 million people. In South America regional precipitation anomalies were typical of El Niño events, with rainfall deficit and droughts in the northern portion of the continent as well as in northeast Brazil and the highlands of the central Andes (Altiplano). In contrast, anomalously intense rainfall and flooding episodes were reported for the coastal areas of southern Ecuador and Northern Perú, as well as along the extratropical West coast of the continent (central Chile, 30° S–40° S), and in the Paraná basin in the southeast region. By far the most devastating impacts in terms of suffering and loss of life occurred in the semiarid region of northeast Brazil where several hundreds of thousands of people died from starvation and diseases during the drought that started in 1877.     

Coupled modes of large-scale climatic variables and regional precipitation in the western Mediterranean in autumn

The variability of autumn precipitation in the western Mediterranean and its relationship to the large-scale atmospheric variability during the period 1948 to 1989 is assessed. A singular value decomposition analysis is used to establish modes of coupled variability between regional precipitation and geopotential height (Z300), zonal (U-wind) and meridional (V-wind) wind components at the 300 hPa level. The Z300/precipitation coupling, which accounts for 52% of the total squared covariance, is strong during the autumn. The first Z300 coupled mode, in its positive phase, is characterised by a dipole structure with negative anomalies over Scandinavia and positive anomalies over the Iberian Peninsula in the Z300 and negative precipitation anomalies in the western Mediterranean. In its negative phase, a coupled pattern is found showing a high-over-low block and positive precipitation anomalies over the Mediterranean area. The coupling depicted by the second mode is weaker than that found in the first mode. The second coupled mode (21% of the total squared covariance) is characterised by negative anomalies in the eastern North Atlantic and positive ones over North Africa and the central Mediterranean in the Z300 and negative anomalies in the regional precipitation. Consistent with the results of the two first modes mentioned, the coupled patterns of either U-wind/precipitation or V-wind/precipitation are found to be coherent with those for Z300/precipitation. Composite maps were obtained to give a representation of the average circulation associated with coherent precipitation variability in the western Mediterranean. The regional impacts of both modes are investigated and the large-scale dynamic patterns presented are important modes of variability. Taking into account data for the whole of the twentieth century, results show that the first singular mode is responsible for the decadal trends and long term changes in precipitation. The late 1970s and 1980s is shown as the drier period and the late 1950s and early 1960s as the wettest years of the century.     

Influence of transient storage on stream nutrient uptake based on substrata manipulation

Quantification of the transient storage zone (A_s) has become critical in stream biogeochemical studies addressed to examine factors controlling nutrient uptake. It is expected that higher A_s may enhance the interaction between nutrients and biota and thus, increase nutrient uptake. However, results from the literature are controversial. We hypothesized that besides of the size of A_s, the intrinsic physical and biological characteristics of stream structures that generate A_s are also relevant for nutrient uptake. We performed 24 additions of phosphate, ammonium, and chloride in four reaches of a man-made channel where we introduced three types of naturally colonized substrata packs (mud, sand and cobbles) to modify A_s. We estimated ammonium and phosphate uptake coefficients in both the main channel and A_s using a solute transport model (OTIS-P) and compared the results among reaches with different substrata types. The introduction of substrata packs decreased water velocity and increased A_s similarly among treatments. Nutrient uptake coefficients in the main channel were similar among reaches with different type substrata packs; however, nutrient uptake coefficients measured in A_s differed among them as well as the ratio between ammonium and phosphorus uptake coefficients in A_s, which were 1.6 in reaches with mud packs and 0.02 in reaches with sand or cobble packs. Results obtained in this study suggest that the contribution of A_s in nutrient uptake not only depends on the size of A_s but on the type of materials used to increase A_s, and thus, have biogeochemical implications on restoration projects aimed to modify channel morphology.     

The effect of the Fernando de Noronha plume on the mantle lithosphere in north-eastern Brazil

New xenolith occurrences in the Cenozoic alkali basalts of north-eastern Brazil have been studied in order to constrain the possible imprint on the continental mantle lithosphere of its passage over the Fernando de Noronha plume and the regional mantle processes. Texturally, the lherzolite and harzburgite xenoliths define three groups: group 1, porphyroclastic; group 2, protogranular; group 3, transitional between groups 1 and 2. Equilibrium temperatures are highest for group 1 and lowest for group 2. Clinopyroxenes from group 1 peridotites have Primitive Mantle (PM)-normalised REE patterns varying from L-MREE-enriched convex-upward, typical of phases in equilibrium with alkaline melts, to LREE-enriched, spoon-shaped, to LREE-enriched, steadily fractionated in a wehrlite. Group 2 clinopyroxenes show patterns slightly depleted in LREE to nearly flat. The M-HREE are at 3–5 ×PM concentration level, as typical in fertile lithospheric lherzolites. Most of group 3 clinopyroxenes show LREE-depleted patterns similar to the group 2 ones, but in two samples the clinopyroxenes are characterised by LREE-enriched, spoon-shaped profiles. Sr and Nd isotopes of the group 1 clinopyroxenes form an array between DM and EMI-like components, both of them are also present in the host basalts. Melts estimated to be in equilibrium with the group 1 clinopyroxenes having L-MREE-enriched, convex-upward patterns are similar to the Cenozoic alkaline magmas. The groups 2 and 3 clinopyroxenes define two distinct compositional fields at higher ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values, correlated with their LREE composition. The isotopes of the groups 2 and 3 LREE-depleted clinopyroxenes form an array from DM towards the isotopic composition of Mesozoic tholeiitic basalts from north-eastern Brazil. Melts in equilibrium with these clinopyroxenes are similar to these basalts, thus suggesting that such xenoliths record geochemical imprint from older melt-related processes.

The LREE-enriched spoon-shaped group 3 clinopyroxenes are characterised by the highest ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values at any given ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr composition. These results are interpreted in terms of a lithospheric mantle section which underwent thermo-chemical and mechanical erosion by infiltration of asthenospheric alkali basalts having EMI-like isotope characteristics during Cenozoic time. At that time, the lithospheric mantle consisted of fertile lherzolites and harzburgites recording the geochemical imprint of Mesozoic mantle processes. The onset of the interaction between lithospheric peridotites and alkaline melts was characterised by the porous flow percolation of small melt volumes that induced chromatographic enrichments in highly incompatible elements and the isotope signature of the spoon-shaped, group 3 clinopyroxenes. Group 1 peridotites represent the base of the lithospheric column eroded by the ascending alkaline melts, whereas the group 2 documents the shallower lithospheric section, with group 3 being the transition. The similarity of processes and isotope components in the protogranular xenoliths from Fernando de Noronha area and north-eastern Brazil supports the hypothesis that the lithosphere beneath Fernando de Noronha is a detached portion of the continental one. Furthermore, the similarity in terms of textural and geochemical features documented by the mantle samples coming from the two different regions seems to confirm the interference of the two regions with the same plume.     

Paleoshoreline reconstruction: A proposed method to approach submerged prehistoric landscapes of Espiritu Santo Island,Baja California Sur,Mexico

When the first Americans inhabited the area now known as Isla Espiritu Santo, around 12.5 and 6 ka, the sea level continuously rose. This resulted in the loss of the coastal territory and the retreat of the human population further inland. Part of the archaeological evidence of this period currently lies over the seafloor and under the seabed. Therefore, reconstructing paleoshorelines is a necessary first step toward submerged precontact archaeology and a broad understanding of the spatial context in which those human populations interacted and how the landscapes changed. Isla Espiritu Santo is of prehistoric importance as it contains numerous Paleocoastal tradition sites as early as ~12,400 Cal B.P. This research aims to reconstruct the changing shoreline positions as sea levels rose around Isla Espiritu Santo between 12.5 and 6.5 ka. We apply numerical modeling to map digital elevation models at 1 ka intervals by estimating the changes in the morphology of the seafloor according to the deposition rates and global sea-level curve. The results show the evolution of coastal morphology and paleoshoreline's position. Three primary geoforms are proposed: (1) coastal plains, (2) tombolo, and (3) a coastal lagoon–island barrier system. This also offers insights into the physical aspect of submerged prehistoric landscapes and the possible resource exploitation options of early societies. In this research, the reconstruction of submerged landscapes seeks to contribute to the long-term goal of locating submerged precontact sites.