Volcanic ash forecast during the June 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption

We modelled the transport and deposition of ash from the June 2011 eruption from Cordón Caulle volcanic complex, Chile. The modelling strategy, currently under development at the Argentinean Naval Hydrographic Service and National Meteorological Service, couples the weather research and forecasting (WRF/ARW) meteorological model with the FALL3D ash dispersal model. The strategy uses volcanological inputs inferred from satellite imagery, eruption reports and preliminary grain-size data obtained during the first days of the eruption from an Argentinean ash sample collection network. In this sense, the results shown here can be regarded as a quasi-syn-eruptive forecast for the first 16 days of the eruption. Although this article describes the modelling process in the aftermath of the crisis, the strategy was implemented from the beginning of the eruption, and results were made available to the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers and other end users. The model predicts ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, expected deposit thickness and ash accumulation rates at relevant localities. Here, we validate the modelling strategy by comparing results with satellite retrievals and syn-eruptive ground deposit measurements. Results highlight the goodness of the combined WRF/ARW-FALL3D forecasting system and point out the usefulness of coupling both models for short-term forecast of volcanic ash clouds.     

Conspicuous sediment structures in fossil beach deposits (southern Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain): paleoliquefaction features versus biogenic origin

Tubular-shaped concretions and concretionary dykes occur in Holocene fossil beach deposits between the township of El Médano and Punta Roja in southern Tenerife, Canary Islands. These sediment structures have been interpreted either as the result of (a) the interaction between hot ignimbrites that overflowed wet beaches; (b) fast accumulation of beach sands on hot and degassing ignimbrites; (c) paleoliquefaction caused by an earthquake (seismites). Based on the interpretation as seismites, an intense paleoearthquake with a moment magnitude of M = 6.8 was proposed to be responsible for the generation of the paleoliquefaction structures. However, we here reinterpret the sedimentary structures in question using the general criteria diagnostic for rhizocretions and root tubules with respect to their orientation, size, branching system, and style of cementation and, thus, consider them, to be of biogenic origin.     

Haul-out pattern of itinerant male Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) at Laurie Island, South Orkney Islands

The seasonal haul-out pattern of itinerant male Antarctic fur seals ( Arctocephalus gazella ) was determined by regular counts at Mossman Peninsula, Laurie Island, South Orkney Islands, from 1996 to 2005. Small numbers of animals began to arrive at the beach in late December/early January (mean date 28 December Ø 15 days, n= 10). Peak numbers of animals ashore changed considerably between seasons. In 1996, 1998 and 2001, peak numbers were registered in March (6/3, 18/3 and 6/3, respectively). Numbers peaked in 1997, 1999 and 2005 at the end of January/beginning of February (26/1,2/2 and 28/1, respectively). In 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2004 peaks were registered in the third week of February (15/2, 22/2, 14/2 and 20/2, respectively). Peaks in numbers of seals ashore also varied between years, being minimum during 2001 (2531 individuals) and maximum during 2006 (16 610 individuals). In March 1998 the coasts of Laurie Island were surveyed by navigating inflatable boats near the shoreline; 18 haul-out places were identified. The big differences in peak numbers, as well as in the dates of peak events among years, suggest that local conditions could have an effect on the numbers of animals hauled out in a given year. It may therefore be difficult to predict trends from summer censuses in non-breeding places.     

Partitioning,bioavailability and origin of heavy metals from the Nador Lagoon sediments (Morocco) as a basis for their management

Nador Lagoon sediments show low trace element concentrations, and, in relation to the lagoon geochemical baseline, only some anomalies for As, Cd, Cu and Pb in the NW of the lagoon deserve to be outstanding. The distribution of major, minor and trace elements in the lagoon allows a breakdown in four zones. Between “Beni Ensar” and “Atelouane” (zone A), a quite confined zone rich in organic matter and S, the most important trace-element anomalies (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Mn, Pb, Zn) were found, mainly around industry and old mining activities. In the surrounding of the city of Nador (zone B), the anomalies correspond to Mn, Cu and Zn. The coastal barrier and Kebdana channel (zone C) show moderately concentrations of Cd, Cr and Ni at specific sites. The less polluted area is the SE of the lagoon (zone D), with no outstanding anomaly. In lagoon sediments, metal bioavailability is very low. The metal partitioning patterns show that Cu, Pb and Zn present a low availability because they are bounded to the residual, non-mobile phases of the sediments. Only in some sites, the fraction was associated with organic matter, which could be liberated easily. Arsenic is concentrated in both the residual phases and the organic matter, the latter being more available. Cadmium is mainly concentrated in some samples in the interchangeable fraction, which could be considered as a potentially toxic element because it is easily released. Concerning the origin of these trace elements, those found in zone A correspond mostly to a natural source by weathering of mount Gourougou volcanic rocks (As, Co, Cu, Pb and Zn), and to an anthropogenic origin (Cd) owing to the presence of industry and old mines. In zone B, contributions of Cu and Zn enter the lagoon through soil weathering and river-borne, and as anthropogenic pollution from urban wastes. In zone C the most important pollutant is Cd deduced to be of anthropogenic origin from the close industry and intensive agriculture area. In spite of the intense socio-economic activities developed in the Nador Lagoon (agriculture, industry, fishing, tourism) trace element concentrations in the sediments are low and with scarce bioavailability. Only the NW sector is relativity polluted because of geogenic features.     

Two hundred years of environmental change in Picos de Europa National Park inferred from sediments of Lago Enol, northern Iberia

We present a study of two short sediment cores recovered from Lago Enol, in the Picos de Europa National Park, Cantabrian Mountains, northern Iberia. We inferred past climate conditions and anthropogenic impacts using geochemical and biological (pollen and diatoms) variables in the dated sequences, in conjunction with temperature and precipitation data collected since 1871 at meteorological stations in the region. The record provides evidence of environmental changes during the last 200 years. At the end of the Little Ice Age (~1800?C1875 AD) the region was characterized by an open landscape. Long-term use of the area for mixed livestock grazing in the mountains, and cultivation of rye during the nineteenth century, contributed to the expansion of grassland at the expense of forest. Warmer temperatures since the end of the nineteenth century are inferred from a change in diatom assemblages and development of the local forest. Socioeconomic transformation during the twentieth century, such as livestock changes related to dairy specialization, planting of non-native trees, mining activities, and management of the national park since its creation in 1918, caused profound changes in the catchment and in the lake ecology. The last several decades (~1970?C2007 AD) of the Lago Enol sediment record are strikingly different from previous periods, indicating lower runoff and increasing lake productivity, particularly since AD 2000. Today, the large number of tourists who visit the area cause substantial impacts on this ecosystem.     

Upper Oligocene-Lower Miocene shallowing-upwardlacustrine sequences controlled by periodic and non-periodic processes(Ebro Basin, northeastern Spain)

The lacustrine facies from two sections (Candasnos and Fraga) ofthe Oligocene-Miocene Torrente de Cinca lithostratigraphic Unit in thecentral part of the Ebro Basin (Spain) have been analysed to determine theinfluence of orbital parameters in lacustrine sedimentation. The unit ispredominantly composed of limestones and marls, and represents a shallowlacustrine freshwater system. The sedimentological features of the faciesstudied demonstrate that the lower part of the Candasnos section representsoffshore lacustrine subenvironments whereas the upper part, and the whole ofthe Fraga section, characterise marginal lacustrine areas. Series of stratalthickness variations of limestone, marl, and limestone/marl couplets fromboth sections have been analysed using spectral analysis. This shows thatinformation corresponding to periodic cycles only appears in the offshorefacies, that is to say, in the lower part of Candasnos section, and disappearsin the marginal facies where non-periodic cycles exist. Furthermore, thespectral analysis of the offshore facies highlights the existence of a peak inthe power spectrum with a period of around 7 (6.8 to 7.8) that can berecognised in the field as shallowing-upward lacustrine sequences.Magnetostratigraphic data from the Candasnos section allow us to establish atime span of 2,808 years for the limestone/marl couplet from the lower partof this section, and between 19,000 and 22,000 years for the periodic cycleidentified, thus representing the climatic precession cycle. Shallowingsequences from marginal areas do not correspond with any periodiccycle.     

利用遥感技术建立墨西哥热带地上生物量模型(英文)

Spatially-explicit estimation of aboveground biomass(AGB) plays an important role to generate action policies focused in climate change mitigation,since carbon(C) retained in the biomass is vital for regulating Earth’s temperature.This work estimates AGB using both chlorophyll(red,near infrared) and moisture(middle infrared) based normalized vegetation indices constructed with MCD43A4 MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and MOD44B vegetation continuous fields(VCF) data.The study area is located in San Luis Potosí,Mexico,a region that comprises a part of the upper limit of the intertropical zone.AGB estimations were made using both individual tree data from the National Forest Inventory of Mexico and allometric equations reported in scientific literature.Linear and nonlinear(expo-nential) models were fitted to find their predictive potential when using satellite spectral data as explanatory variables.Highly-significant correlations(p = 0.01) were found between all the explaining variables tested.NDVI62,linked to chlorophyll content and moisture stress,showed the highest correlation.The best model(nonlinear) showed an index of fit(Pseudo-r2) equal to 0.77 and a root mean square error equal to 26.00 Mg/ha using NDVI62 and VCF as explanatory variables.Validation correlation coefficients were similar for both models:lin-ear(r = 0.87**) and nonlinear(r = 0.86**).     

Microfossils of Polynesian cultigens in lake sediment cores from Rano Kau, Easter Island

Previous wetland vegetation records from Easter Island showing deforestation and Polynesian agriculture are limited to cores that rely on pollen, with a single cultigen pollen type identified: Urticaceae/Moraceae, possibly Broussonetia payrifera (paper mulberry). Here we redress this by also using phytolith and starch analyses on four lake sediment cores on a ~350-m transect along the southwest edge of Rano Kau, focusing on in-washed basal clayey layers. We also use a new method, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, to positively identify degraded starch collected from sedimentary deposits. The cores are the first samples recovered from an area in the lake that (a) lies below the relict village of Orongo, (b) is near a section of the crater believed to be most accessible from the Pacific coast, and (c) is far from the northern crater rim and receives high solar radiation, a likely benefit for crops of tropical origin. Pollen and phytoliths are abundant in the clayey layers and sparse in overlying layers of organic lake detritus and living rhizomes. Mixing of core deposits as a result of human activity has disordered the radiocarbon sequence, precluding development of an reliable chronology. Containing microfossils of several introduced cultigens, the clayey layers represent gardened terraces that have slumped into the lake. The data indicate large-scale deforestation and a mixed-crop production system including Broussonetia papyrifera, Colocasia esculenta (taro), Dioscorea alata (greater yam), Ipomoea batatas (sweet potato), Lagenaria siceraria (bottle gourd) and Musa (banana) sp. The data show (a) the potential for using the combined analyses to provide direct evidence of Polynesian horticulture on Easter Island and (b) that the island’s wetlands potentially hold extensive horticultural records. The study highlights the concept of ‘transported landscapes,’ whereby colonising people replace indigenous forests with artificial, imported agricultural landscapes.     

Mid and late Holocene forest fires and deforestation in the subalpine belt of the Iberian range,northern Spain

The conversion of subalpine forests into grasslands for pastoral use is a well-knownphenomenon, although for most mountain areas the timing of deforestation has not been determined. The presence of charcoal fragments in soil profiles affected by shallow landsliding enabled us to date the occurrence of fires and the periods of conversion ofsubalpine forest into grasslands in the Urbión Mountains, Iberian Range, Spain. We found that the treeline in the highest parts of the northwestern massifs of the Iberian Range(the Urbión, Demanda, Neila, and Cebollera massifs) is currently between 1500 and 1600 m a.s.l., probably because of pastoral use of the subalpine belt, whereas in the past it would have reached almost the highest divides(at approximately 2100–2200 m a.s.l.). The radiocarbon dates obtained indicate that the transformation of the subalpine belt occurred during the Late Neolithic, Chalcolithic, Bronze Age, Iron Age, and Middle Ages. Forest clearing was probably moderate during fires prior to the Middle Ages, as the small size of the sheep herds and the local character of the markets only required small clearings, and therefore more limited fires. Thus, it is likely that the forest recovered burnt areas in a few decades; this suggests the management of the forest and grasslands following a slash-andburn system. During the Middle and Modern Ages deforestation and grassland expansion affected most of the subalpine belt and coincided with the increasing prevalence of transhumance, as occurred in other mountains in the Iberian Peninsula(particularly the Pyrenees). Although the occurrence of shallow landslides following deforestation between the Neolithic and the Roman Period cannot be ruled out, the most extensive shallow landsliding processes would have occurred from the Middle Ages until recent times.     

Impacts of climate change on building energy demands in the intra-Americas region

It was recently reported a regional warming in the intra-Americas region where sea surface temperature exhibited increases exceeding 0.15 °C/decade and an accelerated air temperature rise that could impact building energy demands per capita (EDC). Reanalysis data is used herein to quantify the impacts of these warming trends on EDC. Results of the analysis depict a Southern Greater Antilles and inland South America with a positive annual EDC rate of 1–5 kWh per year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios were selected to analyze energy demand changes in the twenty-first century. A multi-model ensemble forecasts an EDC increase of 9.6 and 23 kWh/month in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 at the end of the twenty-first century, which may increase average building cooling loads in the region by 7.57 GW (RCP2.6) and 8.15 GW (RCP4.5), respectively. Furthermore, 4 of 9 (RCP2.6) and 7 of 9 (RCP4.5) of the major countries in this region have EDCs ranging between 1887 and 2252 kWh/year at the end of this century. Therefore, increased energy production and improved energy infrastructure will be required to maintain ideal indoor building conditions at the end of the twenty-first century in these tropical coastal regions as consequence of a warmer climate.