新一代温室气体排放情景

温室气体排放情景,是对未来气候变化预估的基础.过去应用的情景设计是在2000年完成的,早就需要更新与补充了,IPCC第4次评估报告已经提出了这个要求[1].对于这种必要性Moss等[2]在2010年就进行了深入的讨论.通过2-3年的工作,新一代排放情景已经形成,这里综合评估模式协作(IAMC)计划发挥了关键的作用.2011年Climatic Change出版了专号[3-4],介绍了新一代情景的设计,并对4种情景分别作了详细的分析[5-8].     

富磷矿三阶段动态成矿模式:黔中开阳式高品位磷矿成矿机制

震旦系陡山沱组沉积期形成的黔中开阳、瓮安富磷矿沉积区,矿石产量大、品位高,是国内外重要的磷矿资源产区。黔中磷矿主要分布于黔中古陆周缘的滨浅海环境中,矿石类型以碎屑状磷块岩为主,间夹原生泥晶磷块岩、生物结构磷块岩和次生土状结构磷块岩。开阳式高品位磷块岩的动态沉积成矿过程通常为“三阶段成矿”: 第一阶段为初始成磷作用阶段,在新元古代大规模成磷背景下,上升洋流携带深部富磷海水进入滨浅海地区,并通过生物化学作用使磷质聚集并形成原生磷块岩沉积;第二阶段为簸选成矿作用阶段,高能波浪、风暴水流对原生磷块岩持续的破碎、磨蚀、搬运和再沉积过程中,簸选去除了原生沉积物中的陆源细碎屑、砂泥质成分,保留并聚集磷质碎屑颗粒,形成品位较高的碎屑状矿石;第三阶段为淋滤作用阶段,海平面升降变化使之前形成矿石受暴露事件影响,遭受强烈的风化淋滤作用,碎屑状磷矿石内的碳酸盐岩胶结物和白云石条带被淋滤运移,导致矿层发育大量溶蚀孔洞,甚至形成土状磷块岩,矿石品位再次得到大幅度提升。三阶段成矿作用随古地理条件和海平面变化在沉积成岩过程中多期次、动态进行,最终形成工业价值极高的磷矿石。     

日降水量空间插值方法研究

采用反距离权重法和普通克里格方法对26°~34°N, 103°~115°E范围内2004年逐日降水量进行空间插值试验分析, 分辨率为1 km×1 km。采用交叉检验方法和准确率方法对两种方法插值的总体效果及不同等级的降水插值效果进行综合对比。结果表明:两种方法插值效果近似, 插值结果与实测值相关系数分别为0.83和0.82。但对日雨量较大的情况, 两种方法插值效果均有所降低, 相关系数为0.66和0.67。两种方法的实测值与插值结果的相关系数在不同季节非常接近, 并且均以春季最大, 其次为冬、秋季, 夏季相关系数最小; 通过采用平均误差、平均绝对误差和均方根3个指标衡量及不同等级雨量的插值准确率统计比较, 普通克里格方法插值效果略好于反距离权重法。     

Hydrological cycle and water balance estimates for the megadune–lake region of the Badain Jaran Desert,China

The hydrology and water balance of megadunes and lakes have been investigated in the Badain Jaran Desert of China. Field observations and analyses of sand layer water content, field capacity, secondary salt content, and grain size reveal 3 types of important natural phenomenon: (a) vegetation bands on the leeward slope of the megadunes reflect the hydrological regime within the sandy vadose zone; (b) seepage, wet sand deposits, and secondary salt deposits indicate the pattern of water movement within the sandy vadose zone; (c) zones of groundwater seeps and descending springs around the lakes reflect the influence of the local topography on the hydrological regime of the megadunes. The seepage exposed on the sloping surface of the megadunes and gravity water contained within the sand layer confirm the occurrence of preferential flow within the vadose zone of the megadunes. Alternating layers of coarse and fine sand create the conditions for the formation of preferential flows. The preferential flows promote movement of water within the sand layer water that leads to deep penetration of water within the megadunes and ultimately to the recharging of groundwater and lake water. Our results indicate that a positive water balance promotes recharge of the megadunes, which depends on the high permeability of the megadune material, the shallow depth of the surface sand layer affected by evaporation, the occurrence of rainfall events exceeding 15 mm, and the sparse vegetation cover. Water balance estimates indicate that the annual water storage of the megadunes is about 7.5 mm, accounting for only 8% of annual precipitation; however, the shallow groundwater per unit area under the megadunes receives only 3.6% of annual precipitation, but it is still able to maintain a dynamic balance of the lake water. From a water budget perspective, the annual water storage in the megadunes is sufficient to serve as a recharge source for lake water, thereby enabling the long‐term persistence of the lakes. Overall, our findings demonstrate that precipitation is a significant component of the hydrological cycle in arid deserts.     

库车冲断带秋里塔格构造带东段构造样式与构造演化

秋里塔格构造带位于库车褶皱冲断前缘,其东段包括东秋里塔格背斜和库车塔吾背斜。野外调查和地震剖面解释表明:秋里塔格构造带东段盐下发育断层转折褶皱; 盐上东秋里塔格背斜为滑脱箱状背斜,库车塔吾背斜核部为南倾逆冲断层所破坏。演化剖面显示秋里塔格构造带东段在侏罗纪断陷期发育了正断裂,其后为平静期,直到库车晚期后逆冲断层和褶皱快速发育,背斜最终形成。膏盐岩及古构造对构造变形具有重要影响,一方面作为滑脱层,分割了盐下层与盐上层,导致二者形成不同的构造样式; 另一方面塑性流动充填于背斜核部。由于膏盐岩的厚度差异,东秋里塔格背斜盐上发育褶皱,而库车塔吾背斜核部被逆冲断层破坏,膏盐层厚度还影响了膏盐层上下构造高点的相对位置。盐下构造的发育受侏罗纪古构造控制,进而影响了盐上构造的发育。     

Sea Level Prediction in the Yellow Sea From Satellite Altimetry With a Combined Least Squares-Neural Network Approach

Accessible high-quality observation datasets and proper modeling process are critically required to accurately predict sea level rise in coastal areas. This study focuses on developing and validating a combined least squares-neural network approach applicable to the short-term prediction of sea level variations in the Yellow Sea, where the periodic terms and linear trend of sea level change are fitted and extrapolated using the least squares model, while the prediction of the residual terms is performed by several different types of artificial neural networks. The input and output data used are the sea level anomalies (SLA) time series in the Yellow Sea from 1993 to 2016 derived from ERS-1/2, Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, and Envisat satellite altimetry missions. Tests of different neural network architectures and learning algorithms are performed to assess their applicability for predicting the residuals of SLA time series. Different neural networks satisfactorily provide reliable results and the root mean square errors of the predictions from the proposed combined approach are less than 2?cm and correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SLA are up to 0.87. Results prove the reliability of the combined least squares-neural network approach on the short-term prediction of sea level variability close to the coast.     

K 近邻非参数回归概率预报技术及其应用

针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。     

Study on cut-off low-pressure systems with floods over Northeast Asia

Summary The cut-off lows (COLs) during the period from June to August 1998 leading to the record flood in Northeast Asia, especially in Northeast China, has been investigated in this paper. The results are as follows: the blocking highs benefited significantly the formation and maintenance of COLs over Northeast China; an obvious frontogenesis zone existed in Northeast China and it implies that baroclinity played an important role in the initiation of COLs, especially in middle and upper troposphere; the maxima of the potential vorticity anomaly were located in the upper troposphere, then extended downwards to the middle and the lower troposphere. The pronounced interaction between systems in upper-middle and low troposphere can be revealed; the moisture supply was from South China, and even from East China Sea and South China Sea. The strong southerly current transported very rich moisture to Northeast China. The maximum of the convergence of moisture flux was below 850 hPa. Obvious interaction between the middle and lower latitude systems was found in the study. Also, the summer monsoon showed significant impacts on the sustained heavy rainfalls related with the COLs over Northeast China; the upward motion could be caused by the lifting of the large scale dynamic forcing and there was no obvious releasing of latent heating in the upper-middle troposphere. The cold dome in the COLs was quite different both from the warm core in tropical cyclone and from the weaker warm core in Meiyu (Baiu) front low. The calculation of vorticity budget shows that both the horizontal advection term and horizontal divergence term contributed importantly to the maintenance and the strengthening of positive relative vorticity. Finally, the complex dynamical characteristics regarding the COLs are discussed and further investigation is proposed.     

海洋石油污染及其生物修复

文章根据海洋油污染的现状,介绍了海洋石油污染的来源、危害、转归以及对污染的生物修复等内容。指出了限制微生物降解的因素以及如何提高降解效率的措施。生物修复对环境和人类影响小,修复速度快且费用较低,在海洋油污染治理中该方法具有广阔应用前景。     

基于投影变换的线阵旋转扫描相机标定方法

针对线阵旋转扫描相机标定数据难以获取及模型解算不稳定的问题,提出了一种基于投影变换的线阵旋转扫描相机标定方法。首先构建了一种新的线阵旋转扫描相机成像模型,该模型可以根据相机旋转平台参数、线阵旋转扫描相机成像平面与其切平面的位置关系将旋转扫描图像投影为框幅式图像;然后根据构建出的成像模型,采用直接线性变换法和非线性优化方法进行相机标定和参数优化。试验结果表明,此方法简单易行,具有较高的精度。