Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Radiation parameters of an especially great radio microwave burst

By using the data of an especially great solar radio microwave burst occurring at 1700 UT on 30 October, 1992 in a very active active region NOAA/USAF Region 7321, on the basis of the theoretical emission mechanism of nonthermal gyro-synchrotron radiation, we have derived the radiation parameters such as the energy distribution of energetic electrons in the source region of the burst, the emission coefficient, absorption coefficient and source function of the gyro-synchrotron radiation and made a simple analysis.     

Detection of spectral variability of the optical component of the IR source IRAS 20508+2011

Our high-resolution spectral observations have revealed variability of the optical spectrum of the cool star identified with the IR source IRAS 20508+2011. We measured the equivalent widths of numerous absorption lines of neutral atoms and ions at wavelengths 4300–7930 Å, along with the corresponding radial velocities. Over the four years of our observations, the radial velocity derived from photospheric absorption lines varied in the interval V _r⊙ = 15–30 km/s. In the same period, the Hα profile varied from being an intense bell-shaped emission line with a small amount of core absorption to displaying two-peaked emission with a central absorption feature below the continuum level. At all but one epoch, the positions of the metallic photospheric lines were systematically shifted relative to the Hα emission: ΔV _r = V _r(met) ? V _r(Hα, emis) ≈ ?23 km/s. The Na D doublet displayed a complex profile with broad (half-width ≈ 120 km/s) emission and photospheric absorption, as well as an interstellar component. We used model atmospheres to determine the physical parameters and chemical composition of the star’s atmosphere: T _eff = 4800 K, log g = 1.5, ξ_t = 4.0 km/s. The metallicity of the star differs little from the solar value: [Fe/H]_⊙ = ?0.36. We detected overabundances of oxygen [O/Fe]_⊙ = +1.79 (with the ratio [C/O] ≈ ?0.9), and α-process elements, as well as a deficit of heavy metals. The entire set of the star’s parameters suggests that the optical component of IRAS 20508+2011 is an “O-rich” AGB star with luminosity M _v ≈ ?3^m that is close to its evolutionary transition to the post-AGB stage.     

A decade of change in the Skidaway River estuary I. Hydrography and nutrients

The Skidaway River estuary is a tidally-dominated subtropical estuary in the southeastern USA surrounded by extensiveSpartina salt marshes. Weekly smapling at high and low tide began in 1986 for hydrography, nutrients, chlorophylla, particulate matter, and microbial and plankton biomass and composition; hydrographic and nutrient data during 1986–1996 are reported here. Salinity varied inversely with river discharge and exhibited variability at all time scales but with no long-term trend. Water temperature typically ranged over 25°C and was without apparent long-term frend. Seasonal cycles in concentrations of NO₃, NH₄, PO₄, Si(OH)₄, and DON were observed, with annual maxima generally occurring in late summer. Superimposed on seasonal cycles, all five nutrients exhibited steady increases in minimum, mean, and maximum concentrations; mean concentrations increased c. 50–150% during the decade. Nutrient concentrations were highly correlated with water temperature over the ten-year period, but weakly related to salinity and discharge. Nutrients were strongly correlated with one another, and the relative ratios among inorganic nutrients showed little long-term trend. Correlations among temperature and nutrient concentrations exhibited considerable inter-annual variability. Major spikes in organic and inorganic nutrient concentrations coincided with significant rainfall events; concentrations increased hyperbolically with rainfall. Although pristine compared to more heavily impacted waterways primarily outside the region, residential development and population density have been increasing rapidly during the past 15–20 years. Land use is apparently altering nutrient loading over the long-term (months-years), and superimposed on this are stochastic meteorological events that accelerate these changes over the short term (days-weeks).     

Kosa (yellow sand) components in precipitation collected at central Japan

In east Asia, acidic gases derived from fossil fuel combustion have increased in the past decades. On the other hand, the Asian dust, also called Kosa (yellow sand) is transported following windstorms from arid lands in the Asian continent. Many researchers have been interested in the reaction between acidic aerosols and Kosa aerosols as well as the long-range transport of these emissions. To investigate the characteristics of chemical components in precipitation on a long-term basis over Japan, precipitation was sequentially collected from April 1984 to March 1997 at Kanazawa located near the coast of the Sea of Japan. Precipitation samples were collected at 1 mm intervals for the first 5 mm rainfall and all volume of rainwater after 6 mm for all precipitation events with an automatic wet only precipitation collector. According to the analyses of precipitation including Kosa aerosols during Kosa periods, the reaction in the air between Kosa and acidic components during the long-range transport was discussed.     

云南中强震的水氡前兆异常特征

2001年云南澜沧5.0、施甸5.2,5.9,5.3、宁蒗5.8、楚雄5.3和江川5.1级地震前，云南49项水氡前兆中的一些台站出现突出的异常。研究发现，根据这些异常项的异常特征和空间分布特征及历史震例，可对这几次地震预报的三要素，尤其是地点和时间做出较好的判断。     

Dynamic processes of a simple linear dune—a study in the Taklimakan Sand Sea, China

Samples of dune sands, surveys of the morphology and field measurements of wind velocity and direction of a simple linear dune in Taklimakan Sand Sea show that the airflow and sand flux vary with the change of wind direction on the dune surface. Decrease of the airflow stress on the lee flank does not result in much decrease of the sand flux because of the low threshold shear velocities and the airflow conditions. There are no significant relations between the sand flux on the lee flank and the angle of incidence of the airflow. The low threshold shear velocities and the maintenance of the sand flux at the lee flank are the main mechanisms keeping the linear shape of the dunes. Measurements of the sand flux shows that it reaches a maximum on the crest of the dune. The grain size of the transported sands has some differences compared to that of the dune surface. The sands transported are finer than that on the dune surface, but better sorted under the influence of the medium to low wind activity. The field experiment results exhibit that it is possible for the dunes to be shaped as linear dunes during the processes of accumulation and elongation.     

Fine structure of Pn velocity beneath Sichuan-Yunnan region

We use 23298 Pn arrival-time data from Chinese national and provincial earthquake bulletins to invert fine structure of Pn velocity and anisotropy at the top of the mantle beneath the Sichuan-Yunnan and its adjacent region. The results suggest that the Pn velocity in this region shows significant lateral variation; the Pn velocity varies from 7.7 to 8.3 km/s. The Pn-velocity variation correlates well with the tectonic activity and heat flow of the region. Low Pn velocity is observed in southwest Yunnan, Tengchong volcano area, and the Panxi tectonic area. These areas have very active seismicity and tectonic activity with high surface heat flow. On the other hand, high Pn velocity is observed in some stable regions, such as the central region of the Yangtze Platform; the most pronounced high velocity area is located in the Sichuan Basin, south of Chengdu. Pn anisotropy shows a complex pattern of regional deformation. The Pn fast direction shows a prominent clockwise rotation pattern from east of the Tibetan block to the Sichuan-Yunnan diamond block to southwest Yunnan, which may be related to southeastward escape of the Tibetan Plateau material due to the collision of the Indian Plate to the Eurasia Plate. Thus there appears to be strong correlation between the crustal deformation and the upper mantle structure in the region. The delay times of events and stations show that the crust thickness decreases from the Tibetan Plateau to eastern China, which is consistent with the results from deep seismic sounding.