塔里木克拉通北缘库鲁克塔格地块太古宙基底组成与地壳演化

塔里木克拉通太古宙岩石主要出露在库鲁克塔格、北阿尔金、铁克里克和敦煌等四个边缘基底隆起带。库鲁克塔格地块位于塔里木克拉通东北缘，其中有可靠年代学报道的太古宙岩石主要出露在库尔勒、辛格尔、兴地和帕尔岗塔格四个地区。库鲁克塔格地块的太古宙岩石主要由长英质正片麻岩(含TTG片麻岩)和少量以包体产出的斜长角闪岩组成，真正的太古宙表壳岩较少见。本次研究在库尔勒地区对长英质正片麻岩和石英岩开展锆石SHRIMP U- Pb测年分析，2个长英质正片麻岩样品的年龄分别为2695±9 Ma和2705±8 Ma；石英岩样品中的碎屑锆石核最小年龄峰为2513 Ma，石英岩有可能是太古宙沉积岩；上述岩石样品都经历了古元古代早期 (1. 9~1. 8 Ga)高级变质作用。地球化学分析发现，库鲁克塔格地块新太古代长英质片麻岩的原岩有多种岩石类型，这些长英质岩石都形成于与俯冲作用有关的岛弧构造背景。基性的斜长角闪岩和变质辉长岩可能产出于不同的背景，一部分来源于岛弧地幔楔的部分熔融，另一部分则可能来自于大洋板内，以洋脊玄武岩为主。库鲁克塔格地块太古宙岩石具有2. 7 Ga和2. 5 Ga两个年龄峰值，2. 7 Ga岩浆事件主要发生在库鲁克塔格西部地区，锆石的εHf(t)值既有正值也有负值，表明这一时期地壳生长和改造同时并存；~2. 5 Ga的岩浆活动分布范围较为广泛，全岩εNd(t)和锆石εHf(t)值以正值为主，暗示这一时期可能存在显著的大陆地壳生长。     

Characteristics of the mantle source region of sodium lamprophyres and petrogenetic tectonic setting in northeastern Hunan,China

~~Characteristics of the mantle source region of sodium lamprophyres and petrogenetic tectonic setting in northeastern Hunan,China~~     

Atmospheric nitrous oxide observations above the oceanic surface during the first Chinese Arctic Research Expedition

339 gas samples above oceanic surface were collected on the cruise of "Xuelong" expeditionary ship and nitrous oxide concentrations were analyzed in the laboratory. Results showed that Atmospheric average N2O concentration was 309 ±3. 8nL/L above the surface of northern Pacific and Arctic ocean. N2O concentrations were significantly different on the northbound and southbound track in the range of the same latitude, 308.0 ±3.5 nL/L from Shanghai harbor to the Arctic and 311.9 ±2.5 nL/L from the Arctic to Shanghai harbor. N2O concentration had a greater changing magnitude on the mid- and high-latitude oceanic surface of northern Pacific Ocean than in the other latitudinal ranges. The correlation between the concentrations of the compositions in the aerosol samples and atmospheric N2 O showed that continental sources had a great contribution on atmospheric N2 O concentration above the oceanic surface. Atmospheric N2O concentration significantly increased when the expeditionary ship approached Shanghai h     

A new way to predict forecast skill

Forecast skill (Anomaly Correlated Coefficient, ACC) is a quantity to show the forecast quality of the products of numerical weather forecasting models. Predicting forecast skill, which is the foundation of ensemble forecasting, means submitting products to predict their forecast quality before they are used.Checking the reason is to understand the predictability for the real cases. This kind of forecasting service has been put into operational use by statistical methods previously at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), USA (now called the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)) and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). However, this kind of service is far from satisfactory because only a single variable is used with the statistical method. In this paper, a new way based on the Grey Control Theory with multiple predictors to predict forecast skill of forecast products of the T42L9 of the NMC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is introduced. The results show: (1) The correlation coefficients between “forecasted“ and real forecast skill range from 0.56 to 0.7 at different seasons during the two-year period. (2) The grey forecasting model GM(1,8) forecasts successfully the high peaks, the increasing or decreasing tendency, and the turning points of the change of forecast skill of cases from 5 January 1990 to 29 February 1992.     

Salinity variation of formation water and diagenesis reaction in abnormal pressure environments

~~Salinity variation of formation water and diagenesis reaction in abnormal pressure environments@解习农 @焦赳赳 @李思田 @成建梅~~~~     

异常气候对高寒区杏树生产的影响及对策

杏树是雁北高寒区主栽果树品种之一，也是当地农民脱贫致富的重要收入来源。异常气候是影响当地杏树栽培优质丰产的主要障碍因素。通过近年来山西省阳高县异常天气对杏树生产的影响的分析调查，提出了相应的生产管理措施，对高寒区杏树优质丰产具有一定的指导意义。     

北京市大气细粒子的质量浓度特征研究

大气能见度的降低是当今国际上比较突出的城市环境问题。北京近年的监测结果表明 ,大气中通过消光作用使大气能见度下降的气溶胶细粒子的污染程度呈现上升趋势。从 2 0 0 1年对北京市气溶胶细粒子 (空气动力学直径小于 2 .5μm的粒子 ) 4个季节的采样监测结果分析 (有效采样天数为 50d)得出 ,北京市细粒子质量浓度年平均值已超过美国国家标准的 7倍以上。研究发现细粒子的质量浓度不仅与环境条件有关 ,而且与气象条件也有着密切的关系。文中以细粒子的观测数据为基础 ,结合当时的气象条件进行细粒子浓度与气象条件定量关系的研究     

回归诊断在梅雨期大到暴雨预报中的应用

应用回归诊断方法分析发现，梅汛期大到暴雨回归预报模型的残差分布存在着不对称现象，这种不对称现象是由高杠杆点所引起。这些高杠杆试验点的残差存在着统计天气预报意义上的不合理性，导致了回归系数LS估计的误差，从而又引起暴雨预报的误差。针对这些问题提出了大到暴雨的回归诊断预报模型。实例计算说明，回归诊断预报模型要优于常规回归预报模型。进一步分析指出，梅汛期大到暴雨回归预报模型的不合理性并非个别例子的特殊性所造成，而是由模型的数学特点所决定，因此大到暴雨的回归诊断预报模型具有普遍意义。大量的试验和多年的业务应用表明，回归诊断对提高大到暴雨预报准确率具有明显的效果。     

地震信息反馈系统的研制和应用

介绍了地震信息反馈系统的原理和功能,给出了系统的结构框图,对发送终端和接收终端的功能做了具体描述。在应用上也做了具体阐述,该系统能有效、快速地传送地震三要素信息。     

三维AVO解释技术在洪泽地区岩性油藏勘探中的应用

洪泽地区由于沉积的特点，储层横向变化快，油藏受构造、岩性、油源多因素控制。在对该区三维AVO属性体解释中，利用多元回归方法求取了横波曲线，分岩性和含油气性统计了纵、横波、泊松比参数分布规律，建立了本区的含油砂岩的正演模型，从而降低了AVO解释的多解性。通过井-震结合对四种AVO属性数据体进行了标定，并确定了各属性体应用范围，进而进行了储层和含油气检测。实践表明，该方法能有效地利用AVO属性数据体进行储层预测及油气检测，具有一定的推广价值。