根据i—f—j模式估计山西平陆地区的长期强震潜势

山西省平陆地区位于山西地震带南端，为了分析该地区未来的长期强需求潜势，本较系统地分析当地的破坏性地震及１５００年以来的有地震地震资料，并进一步应用中国在陆特征的地震轮回模式及其复发时间概率模型估算法当前特征地震轮回的平均时间间隔，以及从１９９５年起未来百年内复发强震的概率，结果表明：未来１００年来该地区复发强震的危险性很高，未来５０年内复发强震的危险性也不能排除。     

长江流域河水和悬浮物的锂同位素地球化学研究

深入理解流域侵蚀过程中的锂同位素分馏对于运用锂同位素来示踪化学循环和气候变化是十分必要的。研究集中在长江干流和主要支流的水体和悬浮物的锂及锂同位素组成。长江流域水体的锂及锂同位素组成（δ⁷Li）分别为150~4 570 nmol/L和+7.6‰~+28.1‰,两者沿上游至下游的变化趋势相反。悬浮物锂同位素组成（δ⁷Li）变化比较稳定,分别为41~92 μg/g和-4.7‰~+0.7‰,而且总是低于相应水体的锂同位素组成。悬浮物和流体之间的锂同位素分馏系数在0.977和0.992之间,与悬浮物的量及组成存在明显相关性,反映了粘土矿物的吸附和化学风化的程度。锂含量与锂同位素组成之间良好的负相关性表明流域水体的锂来自2个端元混合：其一可能是蒸发盐岩,并伴有深部热泉水;其二可能是硅酸岩。     

新疆西克尔地区下奥陶统鹰山组岩溶分带性研究

塔里木盆地岩溶缝洞型储层作为重要的油气储层备受关注,而目前预测此类型储层的方法较有限。在新疆伽什县西克尔野外露头区地表岩溶现象丰富,志留系地层以填平补齐的方式充填在一系列的溶沟和溶槽中,部分洼地中还有志留系地层残留,表明该区发育加里东中期岩溶。在本区岩溶古地貌的基础上,基于排泄基准面的分析,划分出3级岩溶台面并对应发育3期岩溶。据现代地貌学和岩溶学理论,按照水动力条件的不同并结合本区岩溶发育特征,运用岩溶旋回的观点将第二期岩溶剖面分为表层岩溶带、垂直渗滤带和水平潜流带,认识到西克尔地区古岩溶地下水发育规律及洞穴发育程度。构造运动是垂向岩溶分带性的主控因素;因此,在大的构造背景的前提下,可以有效地预测巴楚地区的缝洞型储层。     

Petroleum in the Jurassic Reservoirs within the Eastern Fukang Sub-depression, Junggar Basin, NW China: Correlation and Source Rock

The origin and source of the petroleum in the Jurassic reservoirs within the eastern Fukang sub-depression were geochemically investigated. They show thermal maturities matching the peak generation stage, while the condensates are at the early stage of intense cracking. Oils and condensates may have experienced mild evaporative fractionation, while mixing of severely biodegraded with non-biodegraded oils has occurred. Using biomarkers and isotopes, petroleums were classified into Group I, II and III genetic groups, with Group III further divided into IIIa and IIIb subgroups. Group I petroleum displays heavy carbon isotopes, a strong predominance of pristine over phytane, high C19 and C20 tricyclic and C24 tetracyclic terpanes, low gammacerane, and dominant C29 steranes, while Group II shows light carbon isotopes, a predominance of phytane over pristine, high C21 and C23 tricyclic with low C24 tetracyclic terpanes, high gammacerane and dominant C27 steranes. Group IIIa petroleum shows mixing compositions of Group I and II, while Group IIIb displays similar compositions to Group I, but with significantly higher Ts, C29Ts and C30 diahopane proportions. Oil-source rock correlation suggests Group I and II petroleums originate from Jurassic and Permian source rocks, respectively, while Group IIIa are mixtures sourced from these rocks and IIIb are mixtures from Jurassic and Triassic source rocks.     

华东地区台风暴雨的诊断研究

本文利用一个空间滤波器将物理量分解为天气尺度和次天气尺度,以两个路径相似但环流形势不同的台风暴雨作为例子,对不同尺度的环流及其动能平衡进行诊断研究,结果表明:中、低纬环流系统能否进行相互作用是决定台风暴雨强度和范围的一个重要条件。在8209号台风过程中,这种相互作用是明显的,因而,8209号台风暴雨的强度和范围均显著大于8304号台风。同时,8209号台风暴雨的能量过程突出地反映在次天气尺度的动能场上,相反,在8304号台风过程中,以天气尺度的能量过程为主要的能量特征。本文还特别指出,不能简单地认为登陆台风是一个动能的“准封闭系统”,在8209号台风过程中,台风从中、低层向外输出的次天气尺度动能是造成台风环流之外暴雨的一个重要物理过程。     

中酸性隐爆角砾岩、次火山(超浅成)岩与成矿的关系——以广西贵港新民—吉塘铜银矿区为例

研究了隐爆角砾岩与断层角砾岩、火山爆破角砾岩的区别,隐爆岩筒上、中、下部隐爆角砾岩的区别,含矿隐爆角砾岩筒特征,以及与隐爆、成矿作用有关的次火山(超浅成)岩特征。     

Tectono–Magmatic Evolution and Metallogenesis along the Northeast Jiangxi Deep Fault, China

Abstract: From the southernmost part of Jiangsu province to the northeastern part of Jiangxi province, China, the Northeast Jiangxi Deep Fault runs for about 400 km length with a width of 30 to 40 km. This fault marks the suture zone of two ter-ranes of Proterozoic age. At the both sides of the fault, Yanshanian granitic activity is recognized. That is, the Dexing-Wuyuan porphyry belt on the NW side of the fault, and the Damaoshan-Lingshan granite belt on the SE side. The former activity is characterized by the occurrence of small stocks of granodioritic composition, rich in siderophile elements but poor in LIL elements. No distinct Eu anomaly is recognized in the REE pattern, and a low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio is reported. Magnetite, sphene and apatite are observed as accessory minerals. On the contrary, granitic activity on the SE side of the fault is characterized by the occurrence of composite batholiths, in general of granitic to monzogranitic composition, rich in LIL and alkali elements but poor in siderophile and alkali earth elements. A strong Eu anamaly is recognized in the REE pattern, and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are as high as 0. 716. Fluorite, zircon and REE minerals are observed as accessory minerals. These two contrasting granitic activities are refered to as syntexis– and transformation–types, respectively, following the classification commonly used in China, and have similar petrochemical characteristics to those defined for the magnetite– and ilmenite–series, and I– and S-type granitoids. Considering that the above igneous activity occurred far from the supposed subduction zone along the East Coast of China, intracontinental A-type (continent to continent) subduction is proposed to have occurred northwestwards along the NE Jiangxi Deep Fault during Yanshanian time due to a strong compressional stress from SE to NW. A-type subduction introduced the continental slab to some depth, and resulted in the production of the paired granitic activity observed on both sides of the fault. Many mineral deposits are associated with both granitic belts. In the Dexing-Wuyuan porphyry belt, the Dexing porphyry Cu and Yinshan polymetallic deposits are representative, whereas in the Damaoshan-Lingshan granite belt, several tens of rare metal deposits are known such as the Geyuan Nb–Ta–W–Sn deposits. Metal assemblages of those deposits reflect the source materials of magmas in both granitic belts.     

Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.     

宁夏区域精细化温度预报业务平台

介绍以宁夏中尺度数值模式温度预报为基础,以宁夏精细化预报系统温度预报产品为核心,结合自动气象站等多种资料,以图形方式显示、修改和制作宁夏各站逐时温度预报业务平台。该平台以宁夏各地区代表站与该地区其它站之间的回归方程的计算量为依据,在温度预报物理过程不变的情况下,通过修改曲线的方式,完成对大数据量温度预报值的订正。该平台的建成,为制作高时间密度的预报提供了技术支撑。     

塔里木盆地吐木休克构造带断裂构造分析

吐木休克断裂位于塔里木盆地西部,是一条大型基底卷入型断裂构造带,构成塔里木盆地次级构造单元阿瓦提凹陷和巴楚断隆的分界。根据系统的地震资料解释,可以将吐木休克断裂分为西段、中段和东段3部分,各段构造特征有所差异。西段,为单一的基底卷入型高角度逆冲断层,倾向巴楚断隆; 中段,除倾向巴楚断隆的主冲断层外,倾向相反的反冲断层越来越清晰,楔状冲断构造的轮廓逐渐显现出来。同时,在断层上盘还发育第四纪正断层; 东段,倾向巴楚断隆的主冲断层,向上断至中寒武统,未断开中寒武统以上的地层,其冲断位移量完全为倾向阿瓦提凹陷的反冲断层所吸收,形成典型的楔状冲断构造。根据地震资料解释,认为吐木休克断裂带主要存在两期断裂构造:深部高角度基底卷入型逆冲断裂带和其上叠加的浅部正断层。前者形成于库车组沉积前,在库车组沉积期间持续活动,并在新近纪晚期定型; 后者是本次研究首次发现的,形成于第四纪早中期,仅发育在吐木休克断裂带的中部。