Atmospheric response to the North Atlantic Ocean variability on seasonal to decadal time scales

The NCEP twentieth century reanalyis and a 500-year control simulation with the IPSL-CM5 climate model are used to assess the influence of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the North Atlantic region at seasonal to decadal time scales. At the seasonal scale, the air-sea interaction patterns are similar in the model and observations. In both, a statistically significant summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with a horseshoe shape leads an atmospheric signal that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the winter. The air-sea interactions in the model thus seem realistic, although the amplitude of the atmospheric signal is half that observed, and it is detected throughout the cold season, while it is significant only in late fall and early winter in the observations. In both model and observations, the North Atlantic horseshoe SST anomaly pattern is in part generated by the spring and summer internal atmospheric variability. In the model, the influence of the ocean dynamics can be assessed and is found to contribute to the SST anomaly, in particular at the decadal scale. Indeed, the North Atlantic SST anomalies that follow an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) by about 9 years, or an intensification of a clockwise intergyre gyre in the Atlantic Ocean by 6 years, resemble the horseshoe pattern, and are also similar to the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As the AMOC is shown to have a significant impact on the winter NAO, most strongly when it leads by 9 years, the decadal interactions in the model are consistent with the seasonal analysis. In the observations, there is also a strong correlation between the AMO and the SST horseshoe pattern that influences the NAO. The analogy with the coupled model suggests that the natural variability of the AMOC and the gyre circulation might influence the climate of the North Atlantic region at the decadal scale.     

Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach

Medium-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) up to several days ahead are required to issue early flood warnings and to allow optimum operation of hydraulic structures or reservoirs. This paper describes an approach which can be seen as an adaptation of deterministic meteorological model outputs. It involves searching for a sample of past situations similar to the current one from a long meteorological archive. The analogy is considered in terms of general circulation patterns over a window covering western Europe. For this restricted sample of days similar to the day at hand, the corresponding sample of observed daily precipitation is extracted for each catchment. The rainfall to be observed during the current day is assumed to follow the same distribution, known from this empirical sample. This provides a probabilistic forecast expressed, for example, by a central quantile and a confidence range. This paper describes the many choices underlying the optimisation of this approach: choice of predictor variables to characterise a meteorological situation, choice of similarity criterion between two situations, criterion for performance evaluation between two versions of the algorithm, etc. This method was calibrated over about 50 catchments located in France, Italy and Spain, using a meteorological and hydrological archive running from 1953 to 1996. Comparisons carried out over a validation sample (1995–1996) with three poor-man methods prove the interest of this approach, in a perfect prognosis context. In real-time operation, the use of forecast instead of observed predictor variables, essentially geopotential fields, produces only a minor decrease in performance. The use of the single-valued central quantile supplemented by the confidence interval provided a QPF that has proved effective and informative on the potential for extreme values.     

Diagenetic controls on the isotopic composition of carbonate‐associated sulphate in the Permian Capitan Reef Complex,West Texas

Late Palaeozoic‐age strata from the Capitan Reef in west Texas show facies‐dependent heterogeneity in the sulphur isotopic composition of carbonate‐associated sulphate, which is trace sulphate incorporated into carbonate minerals that is often used to reconstruct the sulphur isotopic composition of ancient seawater. However, diagenetic pore fluid processes may influence the sulphur isotopic composition of carbonate‐associated sulphate. These processes variously modify the sulphur isotopic composition of incorporated sulphate from syndepositional seawater in shelf crest, outer shelf, shelf margin and slope depositional settings. This study used a new multicollector inductively‐coupled plasma mass spectrometry technique to determine the sulphur isotopic composition of samples of individual depositional and diagenetic textures. Carbonate rocks representing peritidal facies in the Yates and Tansill formations preserve the sulphur isotopic composition of Guadalupian seawater sulphate despite alteration of the carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions by meteoric and dolomitizing diagenetic processes. However, sulphur isotopic data indicate that limestones deposited in reef and slope facies in the Capitan and Bell Canyon formations largely incorporate sulphate from anoxic marine‐phreatic pore fluids isotopically modified from seawater by microbial sulphate reduction, despite generally preserving the carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of Permian seawater. Some early and all late meteoric calcite cements have carbonate‐associated sulphate with a sulphur isotopic composition distinct from that of Permian seawater. Detailed petrographic and sedimentary context for carbonate‐associated sulphate analyses will allow for improved reconstructions of ancient seawater composition and diagenetic conditions in ancient carbonate platforms. The results of this study indicate that carbonate rocks that diagenetically stabilize in high‐energy environments without pore fluid sulphate gradients can provide a robust archive of ancient seawater's sulphur isotopic composition.     

Glass-iron-clay interactions in a radioactive waste geological disposal: An integrated laboratory-scale experiment

Glass-iron-clay setups were reacted at 90 °C for 6-18 months to investigate the coupled interactions between glass alteration, Fe corrosion and clay transformation. The reacted interfaces were probed at the microscopic level using complementary characterization methods (scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray analysis, micro-Raman spectroscopy, micro X-ray diffraction, micro X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, and micro X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy). The 10-μm thick Fe foil was fully corroded within 10 months, exposing glass to the pore solution. Iron corrosion led to the formation of a layer containing mostly magnetite, siderite and Fe-rich phyllosilicates with one tetrahedral and one octahedral sheet (TO) or two tetrahedral and one octahedral (TOT) sheet per layer. The clay in contact with this corrosion layer was enriched in siderite (FeCO₃). Glass alteration resulted in the formation of a gel layer whose thickness increased with reaction time (from 20 μm after 6 months to 80 μm after 18 months) and a thin layer of secondary precipitates that concentrated lanthanides, P, and Mo. Assuming conservative behavior of Zr, the Si molar concentration in the gel is about 57% that in the glass. Glass dissolution remained at a rate close to the initial dissolution rate r₀. The data are consistent with glass dissolution sustained by the uptake of dissolved Si and charge-compensating cations on secondary (corrosion) products, thus maintaining the gel porosity open and facilitating the leaching of easily soluble elements.