Characterization and Quantification of Uncertainty in Coregionalization Analysis

Coregionalization analysis has been presented as a method of multi-scale analysis for multivariate spatial data. Despite an increasing use of this method in environmental and earth sciences, the uncertainty associated with the estimation of parameters in coregionalization analysis (e.g., sills and functions of sills) is potentially high and has not yet been characterized. This article aims to discuss the theory underlying coregionalization analysis and assess the robustness and limits of the method. A theoretical framework is developed to calculate the ergodic and fluctuation variance-covariance matrices of least-squares estimators of sills in the linear model of coregionalization. To adjust for the positive semidefiniteness constraint on estimated coregionalization matrices, a confidence interval estimation procedure for sills and functions of sills is presented. Thereafter, the relative importance of uncertainty measures (bias and variance) for sills and structural coefficients of correlation and determination is assessed under different scenarios to identify factors controlling their uncertainty. Our results show that the sampling grid density, the choice of the least-squares estimator of sills, the positive semidefiniteness constraint, the presence of scale dependence in the correlations, and the number and range of variogram models, all affect the level of uncertainty, sometimes through multiple interactions. The asymptotic properties of variogram model parameter estimators in a bounded sampling domain impose a theoretical limit to their accuracy and precision. Because of this limit, the uncertainty was found to be high for several scenarios, especially with three variogram models, and was often more dependent on the ratio of variogram range to domain extent than on the sampling grid density. In practice, in the coregionalization analysis of a real dataset, the circular requirement for sill estimates in the calculation of uncertainty measures makes the quantification of uncertainty very problematic, if not impossible. The use of coregionalization analysis must be made with due knowledge of the uncertainty levels and limits of the method.     

GeoNDT: a fast general-purpose computational tool for geotechnical non-destructive testing applications

The non-destructive testing (NDT) plays a crucial role in geotechnical engineering and geophysical applications, especially in the design of earthquake-resistant foundations, geotechnical field investigation, and material characterization and detection of underground anomaly. Currently, the existing signal interpretation methods in NDT measurements still predominantly rely on empirical relations or subjective judgements. In this paper, we present the GeoNDT software, which is developed to provide an advanced physics-based signal interpretation method for NDT characterization of multiphase geomaterials. GeoNDT is able to model the propagation of stress waves and dispersion relations in dry (elastodynamic), saturated (two-phase poroelastodynamic), and three-phase frozen (multiphase poroelastodynamic) geomaterials using the meshless spectral element method. GeoNDT is flexible, general-purpose, and can be used seamlessly for advanced signal interpretation in geophysical laboratory testing including the bender element and ultrasonic pulse velocity tests, characterization of complex multiphase geomaterials, and in situ shallow seismic geophysics including the falling weight deflectometer and multichannel analysis of surface waves tests. The advanced physics-based signal interpretation feature of GeoNDT allows the quantitative characterization of geophysical and geomechanical properties of geomaterials and multilayered geosystems independently without making any simplified assumptions as common in the current practice.

     

A Road Network Selection Process Based on Data Enrichment and Structure Detection

In the context of geographical database generalization, this article deals with a generic process for road network selection. It is based on the geographical context, which is made explicit, and on the preservation of characteristic structure. It relies on literature that is adapted and collected. The first step is to detect significant structures and patterns of the road network such as roundabouts or highway interchanges. It allows the initial dataset to be enriched with explicit geographic structures that were implicit in the initial data. It helps both to make the geographical context explicit and to preserve characteristic structures. Then this enrichment is used as knowledge input for the following step: that is, the selection of roads in rural areas using graph theory techniques. After that, urban roads are selected by means of a block aggregation complex algorithm. Continuity between urban and rural areas is guaranteed by modelling continuity using strokes. Finally, the previously detected characteristic structures are typified to maintain their properties in the selected network. This automated process has been fully implemented on Clarity? and tested on large datasets.     

Numerical investigation of an oceanic resonant regime induced by hurricane winds

The oceanic mixed layer (OML) response to an idealized hurricane with different propagation speeds is investigated using a two-layer reduced gravity ocean model. First, the model performances are examined with respect to available observations relative to Hurricane Frances (2004). Then, 11 idealized simulations are performed with a Holland (Mon Weather Rev 108(8):1212–1218, 1980) symmetric wind profile as surface forcing with storm propagation speeds ranging from 2 to 12 m s⁻¹. By varying this parameter, the phasing between atmospheric and oceanic scales is modified. Consequently, it leads to different momentum exchanges between the hurricane and the OML and to various oceanic responses. The present study determines how OML momentum and heat budgets depend on this parameter. The kinetic energy flux due to surface wind stress is found to strongly depend on the propagation speed and on the cross-track distance from the hurricane center. A resonant regime between surface winds and near-inertial currents is clearly identified. This regime maximizes locally the energy flux into the OML. For fast-moving hurricanes (>6 m s⁻¹), the ratio of kinetic energy converted into turbulence depends only on the wind stress energy input. For slow-moving hurricanes (<6 m s⁻¹), the upwelling induced by current divergence enhances this conversion by shallowing the OML depth. Regarding the thermodynamic response, two regimes are identified with respect to the propagation speed. For slow-moving hurricanes, the upwelling combined with a sharp temperature gradient at the OML base formed in the leading part of the storm maximizes the oceanic heat loss. For fast propagation speeds, the resonance mechanism sets up the cold wake on the right side of the hurricane track. These results suggest that the propagation speed is a parameter as important as the surface wind speed to accurately describe the oceanic response to a moving hurricane.     

Flow and sediment processes in a cutoff meander of the Danube Delta during episodic flooding

This article analyzes the water and suspended solid fluxes through a straightened meander of the southern branch of the Danube Delta (the St. George branch) during episodic flooding. The Mahmudia study site corresponds to a vast natural meander which was cut off in 1984–1988 by an artificial canal opened to shipping. The meander correction accelerated fluxes through the artificial canal and dramatically enhanced deposition in the former meander. After his formation, the cutoff meander acted as sediment storage locations, essentially removing channel and point bar sediments from the active sediment budget of the main channel. Increases in slope and stream power in reaches upstream and downstream have also occurred, but to a lesser degree. During the one-hundred-year recurrent flood in April 2006, bathymetry, flow velocity and discharge data were acquired across several sections of both natural and artificial channels with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (aDcp Workhorse Sentinel 600 kHz, Teledyne RDI) in order to investigate the distribution of the flow and sediment and his impact on sedimentation in a channelized reach and its adjacent cutoff. The contrasting hydro-sedimentary processes at work in both channels and bifurcation/confluence nodal points are analyzed from the measured flux distribution, morphological profiles and velocity and concentration patterns. In the cutoff, a diminishing of the intensity of the flow velocity (c. 50%) and of the SSC was observed correlated with the aggradation of the river bed. In the bifurcation/confluence nodal points and in the artificial canal were observed the most intensive hydrodynamic activity (high flow velocity, SSC concentration, degradation of the river bad). Both the event-scale and long-term morphological trends of the alluvial system are discussed analyzing the boundary shear stress and SSC variability. Excess boundary shear stress in the sub-reaches directly affected by cutoffs resulted in scour that increased downstream bed material load. These high sediment loads play a key role in driving morphological adjustments towards equilibrium in the cutoff channel.The approach followed in this paper combines detailed episodic in-situ aDcp measurements and robust numerical 1D modeling in order to provide a practical comprehension of the relevant morphodynamical processes. The 1D model reproduces robustly the continuity of hydrodynamical variables along the streamwise axes of the two-channel network. The simulated are used in the paper for highlighting reach-scale morphological processes, at both event and long-term scales.     

Observed subsurface signature of Southern Ocean sea level rise

Satellite altimetry data show a strong increase in sea level in various parts of the Southern Ocean over the 1990s. In this paper, we examine the causes of the observed sea level rise in the region south of Australia, using 13 years of repeat hydrographic data from the WOCE SR3 sections, and the SURVOSTRAL XBT and surface salinity data. The hydrographic data show a poleward shift in the position of the Subtropical and the Subantarctic Fronts over the period. In the Antarctic Zone, the Antarctic Surface Water has become warmer and fresher, and the Winter Water tongue has become warmer, fresher, thinner and shallower. Increased freshening south of the Polar Front is linked to increased precipitation over the 1990s. Temperature changes over the upper 500 m account for only part of the altimetric sea level rise. The CTD sections show that the deeper layers are also warmer and slightly saltier and the observed sea level can be explained by steric expansion over the upper 2000 m. ENSO variability impacts on the northern part of the section, and a simple Sverdrup transport model shows how large-scale changes in the wind forcing, related to the Southern Annular Mode, may contribute to the deeper warming to the south.