Quantitative simulation and verification of upgrade law of sustainable development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

The natural formation and development of urban agglomerations is a process in which core cities continue to unite their neighboring cities to enhance sustainability for their own sustainable development.The upgrade mechanism of sustainable development urban agglomeration is a nonlinear composite upgrade curve that is a function of time,increasing with the number of cities.In this paper,the sustainable upgrade function curve,upgrade rate,and upgrade speed of urban agglomerations were solved using a geometrical derivation,and the index system for measuring the upgrade capability of sustainable development of urban agglomerations was established.The dynamic change in economic sustainable upgrade capability,social sustainable upgrade capability,environmental sustainable upgrade capability,and comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of a Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015 was measured by technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution and a grey correlation method,and a comprehensive,intercity unite strength model and a unite threshold calculation method for urban agglomerations were established.The research shows that the economic sustainable upgrade capability,social sustainable upgrade capability,environmental sustainable upgrade capability,and comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration all show a wave-like rising trend.The average annual upgrade speeds during 2000-2015 are,respectively,2.4%.1.67%,1.1%,and 1.74%,with the intercity comprehensive unite strength of urban agglomerations maintaining a general increase;but there is a limit to the joint threshold.From 2000 to 2015,as the core city of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,Beijing,to enhance its sustainable upgrade capability,jointly developed with Tianjin,Langfang,and Baoding before 2000,Tangshan in 2002,Cangzhou in 2009,Zhangjiakou and Shijiazhuang in 2012,and Chengde in 2014.By 2015,the comprehensive unite strength between Beijing and four cities(Handan,Qinhuangdao,Hengshui,and Xingtai) was still lower than the unite threshold of 6.14.These four cities are relatively far from Beijing,and offer no substantial contribution to the sustainable upgrade capability of Beijing.Through multiple fittings of the upgrade curve using the long-term sequence index of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of Beijing(the core city of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration) from 2000 to 2015,it was found that the simulated curve of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade function of the agglomeration was very similar to the curve of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability,which indicates that the simulation results are satisfactory.The future comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of the agglomeration can be analyzed and predicted by the comprehensive sustainable upgrade function model.This study provides quantitative decision-supporting evidence for promoting the coordinated development of the Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomeration and provides theoretical guidance and algorithms for determining the number of cities joined with the sustainable development of national urban agglomerations.     

小冰期结束以来贡嘎山海螺沟冰川退缩区土壤化学风化与发育过程

选择海螺沟冰川退缩区,对冰川退缩年龄分别为0年、30年、40年、52年、80年、120年的样点按土壤发生层分层采集样品,通过分析样品的化学风化速率及理化性质变化,探讨小冰期结束以来土壤发育过程及影响因素,并评估不同阶段土壤质量。结果表明,退缩区前40年样点中主要以碳酸盐风化为主,80年后硅酸盐风化作用增强。土壤长期风化速率随土壤年龄呈现升高-降低-升高的趋势,52年样点长期风化速率最低,为48.06 cmol/（m² ·a）,矿物组成和气候是影响土壤风化速率的重要原因。土壤的粒度组成以砂粒为主,多数样点占比约为80%~90%。随着土壤年龄增加,容重值和pH减小,pH从8.54减小到5左右;土层厚度、土壤有机质（SOC）及总氮（TN）含量增加,这些土壤理化指标的快速变化表明冰川退缩区土壤发育迅速。适宜的温度、充足的降水以及快速的植被演替可能是退缩区土壤快速发育的原因。模糊数学法计算土壤质量的结果显示,除了0年样点,其余样点土壤质量指数（SQI）均大于0.4,说明退缩区土壤质量状况整体属于中等水平,土壤肥力状况较好。研究结果有助于揭示土壤矿物风化过程和土壤发育的影响因素,理解土壤发育机制。

     

Carbon pools and fluxes in the China Seas and adjacent oceans

The China Seas include the South China Sea, East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Bohai Sea. Located off the Northwestern Pacific margin, covering 4700000 km~2 from tropical to northern temperate zones, and including a variety of continental margins/basins and depths, the China Seas provide typical cases for carbon budget studies. The South China Sea being a deep basin and part of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is characterized by oceanic features; the East China Sea with a wide continental shelf, enormous terrestrial discharges and open margins to the West Pacific, is featured by strong cross-shelf materials transport; the Yellow Sea is featured by the confluence of cold and warm waters; and the Bohai Sea is a shallow semiclosed gulf with strong impacts of human activities. Three large rivers, the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Pearl River, flow into the East China Sea, the Bohai Sea, and the South China Sea, respectively. The Kuroshio Current at the outer margin of the Chinese continental shelf is one of the two major western boundary currents of the world oceans and its strength and position directly affect the regional climate of China. These characteristics make the China Seas a typical case of marginal seas to study carbon storage and fluxes. This paper systematically analyzes the literature data on the carbon pools and fluxes of the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea, including different interfaces(land-sea, sea-air, sediment-water, and marginal sea-open ocean) and different ecosystems(mangroves, wetland, seagrass beds, macroalgae mariculture, coral reefs, euphotic zones, and water column). Among the four seas, the Bohai Sea and South China Sea are acting as CO_2 sources, releasing about0.22 and 13.86–33.60 Tg C yr~(-1) into the atmosphere, respectively, whereas the Yellow Sea and East China Sea are acting as carbon sinks, absorbing about 1.15 and 6.92–23.30 Tg C yr~(-1) of atmospheric CO_2, respectively. Overall, if only the CO_2 exchange at the sea-air interface is considered, the Chinese marginal seas appear to be a source of atmospheric CO_2, with a net release of 6.01–9.33 Tg C yr~(-1), mainly from the inputs of rivers and adjacent oceans. The riverine dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) input into the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea are 5.04, 14.60, and 40.14 Tg C yr~(-1),respectively. The DIC input from adjacent oceans is as high as 144.81 Tg C yr~(-1), significantly exceeding the carbon released from the seas to the atmosphere. In terms of output, the depositional fluxes of organic carbon in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea are 2.00, 3.60, 7.40, and 5.92 Tg C yr~(-1), respectively. The fluxes of organic carbon from the East China Sea and South China Sea to the adjacent oceans are 15.25–36.70 and 43.93 Tg C yr~(-1), respectively. The annual carbon storage of mangroves, wetlands, and seagrass in Chinese coastal waters is 0.36–1.75 Tg C yr~(-1), with a dissolved organic carbon(DOC) output from seagrass beds of up to 0.59 Tg C yr~(-1). Removable organic carbon flux by Chinese macroalgae mariculture account for 0.68 Tg C yr~(-1) and the associated POC depositional and DOC releasing fluxes are 0.14 and 0.82 Tg C yr~(-1), respectively. Thus, in total, the annual output of organic carbon, which is mainly DOC, in the China Seas is 81.72–104.56 Tg C yr~(-1). The DOC efflux from the East China Sea to the adjacent oceans is 15.00–35.00 Tg C yr~(-1). The DOC efflux from the South China Sea is 31.39 Tg C yr~(-1). Although the marginal China Seas seem to be a source of atmospheric CO_2 based on the CO_2 flux at the sea-air interface, the combined effects of the riverine input in the area, oceanic input, depositional export,and microbial carbon pump(DOC conversion and output) indicate that the China Seas represent an important carbon storage area.     

Control of dust emissions by geomorphic conditions, wind environments and land use in northern China: An examination based on dust storm frequency from 1960 to 2003

The degree to which dust emissions are controlled by geomorphic conditions, wind environments and land use was investigated using the dust storm frequency (DSF) and data from more than 300 meteorological stations throughout northern China. Our analysis showed that most dust emissions originated in gobi deserts that developed in piedmont alluvial fans of the Kunlun, Qilian and Helan mountains. Dust emissions are low from other gobi desert regions, such as the northern Gurbantunggut and eastern Taklimakan, where high vegetation coverage restrained dust emissions or where dust-size particles are not abundant after a long period of strong wind erosion. Sandy deserts with relatively high vegetation coverage or an extensive cover by mobile sands are not a major dust source. Although the highest dust emissions did not appear in regions with the highest wind energy, DSF trends in each region from 1960 to 2003 were closely related to local wind activity. DSF was low in regions with high levels of human activity, where the mean DSF from 1960 to 2003 did not exceed 4 days/year; even from the 1960s to the early 1970s, the period with the greatest DSF, frequency did not exceed 8 days/year, which indicates that extensive land use did not contribute to DSF. The low DSF in these areas might result from the fact that although land use could produce abundant fine soil fractions, vegetation coverage and soil moisture remained higher than in the gobi deserts of arid China, thereby decreasing dust-storm occurrence.     

Spatial distributions and interannual variations of snow cover over China in the last 40 years

By using the observational snow data of more than 700 weather stations,the interannual temporal and spatial characteristics of seasonal snow cover in China were analyzed.The results show that northern Xinjiang,northeastern China-Inner Mongolia,and the southwestern and southern portions of Tibetan Plateau are three regions in China with high seasonal snow cover and also an interannual anomaly of snow cover.According to the trend of both the snow depth and snow cover days,there are three changing patterns for the seasonal snow cover:The first type is that both snow depth and snow cover days simultaneously increase or decrease;this includes northern Xinjiang,middle and eastern Inner Mongolia,and so on.The second is that snow depth increases but snow cover days decrease;this type mainly locates in the eastern parts of the northeastern plain of China and the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The last type is that snow depth decreases but snow cover days increase at the same time such as that in middle parts of Tibetan Plateau.Snow cover in China appears to have been having a slow increasing trend during the last 40 years.On the decadal scale,snow depth and snow cover days slightly increased in the 1960s and then decreased in the 1970s;they again turn to increasing in the 1980s and persist into 1990s.     

Modeling spatially non-stationary land use/cover change in the lower Connecticut River Basin by combining geographically weighted logistic regression and the CA-Markov model

Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.     

生物土壤结皮铁代谢微生物组成及其功能基因对演替的响应

采用微生物宏基因组学微阵列GeoChip 5.0技术,选择腾格里沙漠东南缘沙坡头地区不同年代人工固沙植被区的生物土壤结皮（BSC）为对象,分析BSC演替过程中参与铁代谢的功能微生物组成及其功能基因变化特征,研究微生物铁代谢对BSC演替的响应及调控。结果表明：真菌参与铁吸收和转运过程,古菌参与铁转运和贮存过程,细菌则在铁代谢吸收、转运和贮存过程中均起主要调控作用。门水平上,BSC铁代谢功能微生物组成变化对演替的响应不敏感,BSC铁代谢微生物主要为变形菌门（Proteobacteria）。BSC铁代谢功能基因多样性的显著提高和三类铁代谢过程基因信号强度达到最高水平需要经过61 a的演替。调控BSC铁吸收过程的主要功能基因为亚铁氧化酶编码基因iro;调控原核生物铁转运过程的主要功能基因,为羟基苯甲酰丝氨酸铁外膜转运体编码基因cirA和Fe（Ⅱ）转运蛋白编码基因feoB,真菌铁转运过程主要依靠含铁细胞转运体和铁氧化酶高亲和力的作用;调控铁贮存过程的主要功能基因为固定相类核蛋白编码基因dps。在BSC演替阶段末期,上述铁代谢功能基因强度的显著增加促进了微生物的铁代谢潜能。干旱、半干旱荒漠生态系统植被恢复过程中微生物铁代谢潜能的恢复需要较长时间。     

冬季蒙古高压与北太平洋海温异常的年际尺度关系

蒙古高压和北太平洋海区的气压差被认为是造成东亚冬季风及其变化的重要原因,而过去有关的研究以其年代际时间尺度为多,本文的研究揭示了冬季蒙古高压和北太平洋海温异常(SSTA)在年际时间尺度上的相互关系.冬季蒙古高压的活动与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)之间在年际时间尺度上也存在明显的负相关,冬季的强(弱)蒙古冷高压活动往往对应...     

中国近45年来气候变化的研究

利用１９５１～１９９５年约４００站的月平均气温、降水和１９６１～１９９５年２００余站的最高和最低气温、相对湿度、总云量和低云量、日照时数、蒸发、风速和积雪日数和深度以及０～３．２ｍ共８层土壤温度等资料,对近４５ａ来中国气候变化特征作了一个较全面的分析研究。本文作为第一部分,分析了平均气温、最高最低气温、降水、相对湿度和日照的气候变化规律。其余要素的变化规律以及中国气候变化的可能机制将在第二部分中加以讨论。     

基于GIS的天津市应急避难场所选址评价

应急避难场所在城市应急管理体系中占有重要地位,对已建成的应急避难场所选址进行评价,可为应急避难场所个体改进、布局优化和新建选址提供依据。本文在文献研究与天津市城市特点分析的基础上,从有效性、安全性、可达性3个维度构建包含8个评价因子的应急避难场所选址适宜性评价指标体系,应用层次分析法（AHP）确定指标权重。应用GIS空间分析技术建立应急避难场所空间点位分析模型和覆盖范围模型,对天津市27个应急避难场所进行适宜性评价,并对中心城区14个应急避难场所进行满足性评价。结果表明,天津市应急避难场所具有良好的基础,但总体适宜性水平有待进一步提高,尤其是安全性亟需加强;天津市中心城区人口密集,但应急避难场所数量少,服务区域有限,存在较大范围的覆盖盲区,其中和平区人均有效避难面积仅0.2m2,远小于人体最低占用面积0.6m2,达不到人均有效避难要求。