A framework for uncertainty assessment in simulation models

In this article, we introduce a conceptual framework for systematic identification and assessment of sources of uncertainty in simulation models. This concept builds on a novel typology of uncertainty in model validation and extends the GIScience research focus on uncertainty in spatial data to uncertainty in simulation modelling. Such a concept helps a modeller to interpret and handle uncertainty in order to efficiently optimise a model and better understand simulation results.

To illustrate our approach, we apply the proposed framework for uncertainty assessment to the TREE LIne Model (TREELIM), an individual-based model that simulates forest succession at the alpine tree line. Using this example, uncertainty is identified in the modelling workflow during conceptualisation, formalisation, parameterisation, analysis and validation. With help of a set of indicators we quantify the emerging uncertainties and assess the overall model uncertainty as a function of all occurring sources of uncertainty.

An understanding of the sources of uncertainty in an ecological model proves beneficial for: (1) developing a structurally valid model in a systematic way; (2) deciding if further refinement of the conceptual model is beneficial for the modelling purpose; and (3) interpreting the overall model uncertainty by understanding its sources. Our approach results in a guideline for assessing uncertainty in the validation of simulation models in a feasible and defensible way, and thus functions as a toolbox for modellers. We consider this work as a contribution towards a general concept of uncertainty in spatially explicit simulation models.     

Eutrophication and drought disturbance shape functional diversity and life-history traits of aquatic plants in shallow lakes

Theories that link plant strategies and abiotic filters discriminate between three strategies: competitive, ruderal or stress-tolerant species, and suggest that functional diversity is higher at intermediate values along the gradients of productivity and disturbance. The mechanism by which abiotic filters screen plant traits in aquatic plant communities has been poorly tested and has led to contrasting results. The present study aimed to test whether functional diversity and abundance of life-history traits corresponding to morphology, fecundity and longevity of aquatic plants were linked to disturbance and productivity. Fifty-nine shallow lakes that were arranged along a gradient of productivity (estimated through total phosphorus concentration) and drought-disturbance frequency were sampled for aquatic plants. Species traits were documented and functional diversity was calculated (richness, dispersion and evenness) for each lake. Increasing total phosphorus concentration was associated with decreased functional richness and dispersion but not functional evenness. Functional diversity did not differ according to disturbance frequency, regardless of the index that was measured. High productivity favoured floating species with storage organs and vegetative reproduction, especially at low disturbance frequency. For all disturbance frequencies, low productivity favoured small species without storage organs and sexual reproduction. The present study partly supports the theoretical model. At high productivity levels, because phytoplankton is a better competitor for light than aquatic plants, plant traits are screened stringently, and species with traits that allow them to reach the photic zone are selected.     

Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective

The relationship between winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is examined for the time period 1860–2300. This study uses model output to extend recently reported observational results to multi-century time scales. Nine ensemble members are used in two Global Climate Models with forcing evolving from pre-industrial conditions through the so-called A1B scenario in which carbon dioxide stabilizes at 720 ppm by 2100. Throughout, the NAO generates an east-west dipole pattern of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies with oppositely signed centers of action over the Labrador and Barents Seas. During the positive polarity of the NAO, SIC increases over the Labrador Sea due to wind-driven equatorward advection of ice, and SIC decreases over the Barents Sea due to wind-driven poleward transport of heat within the mixed layer of the ocean. Although this NAO-driven SIC variability pattern can always be detected, it accounts for a markedly varying fraction of the total sea ice variability depending on the strength of the forced sea ice extent trend. For the first half of the 20th century or 1990 control conditions, the NAO-driven SIC pattern accounts for almost a third of the total SIC variance. In the context of the long term winter sea ice retreat from 1860 to 2300, the NAO-driven SIC pattern is robustly observable, but accounts for only 2% of the total SIC variance. The NAO-driven SIC dipole retreats poleward with the retreating marginal ice zone, and its Barents Sea center of action weakens. Results presented here underscore the idea that the NAO’s influence on Arctic climate is robustly observable, but time dependent in its form and statistical importance.     

Correlation of late Holocene terrestrial and marine tephra markers, north Iceland: implications for reservoir age changes

The tephrochronology of the last 3000 years has been investigated in soil sections in north Iceland and in a marine sediment core from the north Icelandic shelf, 50 km offshore. Tephra markers, identified with major element geochemical analysis of volcanic glass shards, serve to correlate the marine and terrestrial records. Hekla 3, the largest Holocene tephra marker from the volcano Hekla, in south Iceland, dated to 2980 years BP, is used as the basal unit in the tephra stratigraphy. AMS ¹⁴C dating of molluscs in the sediment core shows variable deviation from the tephrochronological age model, indicating that the reservoir age of the seawater mass at the coring site has varied with time. A standard marine reservoir correction of 400 ¹⁴C years appears to be reasonable at the present day in the coastal and shelf waters around Iceland, which are dominated by the Irminger Current. However, values over 500 years are observed during the last 3000 years. We suggest that the intervals with increased and variable marine reservoir correction reflect incursions of Arctic water masses derived from the East Greenland Current to the area north of Iceland.     

Field Studies on the Fate and Transport of Pharmaceutical Residues in Bank Filtration

Bank filtration and artificial ground water recharge are important, effective, and cheap techniques for surface water treatment and removal of microbes, as well as inorganic, and some organic, contaminants. Nevertheless, physical, chemical, and biological processes of the removal of impurities are not understood sufficiently. A research project titled Natural and Artificial Systems for Recharge and Infiltration attempts to provide more clarity in the processes affecting the removal of these contaminants. The project focuses on the fate and transport of selected emerging contaminants during bank filtration at two transects in Berlin, Germany. Several detections of pharmaceutically active compounds (PhACs) in ground water samples from bank filtration sites in Germany led to furthering research on the removal of these compounds during bank filtration. In this study, six PhACs including the analgesic drugs diclofenac and propyphenazone, the antiepileptic drugs carbamazepine and primidone, and the drug metabolites clofibric acid and 1-acetyl-1-methyl-2-dimethyl-oxamoyl-2-phenylhydrazide were found to leach from the contaminated streams and lakes into the ground water. These compounds were also detected at low concentrations in receiving public supply wells. Bank filtration either decreased the concentrations by dilution (e.g., for carbamazepine and primidone) and partial removal (e.g., for diclofenac), or totally removed PhACs (e.g., bezafibrate, indomethacine, antibiotics, and estrogens). Several PhACs, such as carbamazepine and especially primidone, were readily transported during bank filtration. They are thought to be good indicators for evaluating whether surface water is impacted by contamination from municipal sewage effluent or whether contamination associated with sewage effluent can be transported into ground water at ground water recharge sites.     

Determination of radionuclides in water at uranium mining remediation – a comparison of analytical methods

The corporate purpose of Wismut GmbH is to decommission its former mining holdings and to rehabilitate the landscape and the environment. Sample taking and analysing the value of contaminants are necessary steps for the remediation of waste rock piles, the recycling of contaminated areas, controlled flooding of uranium mines. Main emphasis lies on the determination of heavy metals and radionuclides of natural decay chains of U‐238 and U‐235. Yearly about 60 000…70 000 determinations of radionuclides in waters were done. Facing this high output of determinations it is a permanent task for laboratory and quality management to ask: Are the results of different methods comparable to each other? Is there a preferred analytical technology? Which matrix influences exist? and What about the analytical costs? Answers to these important questions are given in this report. Summarizing our investigations done in the last few years it is possible to say that – by using different analytical methods the results of radionuclides in water samples (surface or groundwater) are comparable, – a not negligible influence of Ra‐223, Ra‐224 and Ra‐228 may exist by using the DIN 38404 C18 method to determine Ra‐226, – a preferred method cannot be defined, – the choice of the analytical method should include analytical questions (the sample matrix, the occurrence of other disturbing radionuclides, the necessary detection limit) and economical questions (costs, other parameters to be determined).     

An ostracod-conductivity transfer function for Tibetan lakes

About 145 freshwater to hypersaline lakes of the eastern Tibetan Plateau were investigated to develop a transfer function for quantitative palaeoenvironmental reconstructions using ostracods. A total of 100 lakes provided sufficient numbers of ostracod shells. Multivariate statistical techniques were used to analyse the influence of a number of environmental variables on the distributions of surface sediment ostracod assemblages. Of 23 variables determined for each site, 19 were included in the statistical analysis. Lake water electrical conductivity (8.2%), Ca% (7.6%) and Fe% (4.8%, ion concentrations as % of the cations) explained the greatest amounts of variation in the distribution of ostracod taxa among the 100 lakes. Electrical conductivity optima and tolerances were calculated for abundant taxa. A transfer function, based on weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS), was developed for electrical conductivity (r ² = 0.71, root-mean-square-error of prediction [RMSEP] = 0.35 [12.4% of gradient length], maximum bias = 0.64 [22.4% of gradient length], as assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation) based on 96 lakes. Our results show that ostracods provide reliable estimates of electrical conductivity and can be used for quantitative palaeoenvironmental reconstructions similarly to more commonly used diatom, chironomid or pollen data.