华南前汛期典型旱涝年降水的低频特征及其与冷空气的关系

利用国家气象信息中心提供的1961—2010年华南85站逐日降水及NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,选取2004、2010年为华南前汛期降水典型旱、涝年,分别统计旱涝年降水及冷空气低频特征,讨论低频冷空气与低频降水的关系,并揭示低频冷空气信号源地。结果表明:(1)涝年降水存在10～20 d和30～60 d显著低频周期,旱年还存在20～30 d低频周期。无论旱涝年,低频位涡与同频域降水呈显著的正相关关系,其中10～20 d低频位涡与同频域降水的关系最为密切;(2)涝年华南前汛期10～20 d低频冷空气直接源地位于华北至渤海一带,南传特征明显,高层冷空气源地位于平流层低层西西伯利亚地区,高层高位涡空气沿315 K等熵面向低层输送,干侵入为西北路径。旱年对流层低层冷空气传播特征不明显,高层冷空气源地位于平流层低层东北地区,由于高低层位涡传输通道断裂,导致冷空气活动减弱,降水减少,干侵入为东北路径。     

蓟县中、新元古界的成岩作用——源于矿物学的数据

本文运用系列黏土矿物学和碳酸盐结构占位的方法研究了蓟县中、新元古界剖面出露的碎屑岩和碳酸盐岩。这些方法包括了伊利石结晶度、绿泥石结晶度、黏土矿物组合、粒度分布、多型、有序度、Mg/Ca离子占位以及地质温压计。结果表明:伊利石结晶度Kübler指数范围为0.37°～1.37°Δ2θ,绿泥石结晶度árkai指数范围为0.31°～2.40°Δ2θ,以及1M_d的多型,一致指示本区处于晚期成岩作用影响范围,仅非常有限局部达到了初始变质的状态;黏土矿物组合主要是伊利石、伊蒙混层、绿蒙混层和高岭石;粒度分布范围为8～24 nm,其上界(23～24 nm)达到了NEWMOD计算的理论成岩带/近变质带界限,与结晶度数据一致,也表明了本区处于晚期成岩阶段。白云石有序度的数据表明,本区碳酸盐岩白云石的有序度值范围为0.19～0.99,可分为4个带:甚低级有序带、低级有序带、中级有序带、高级有序带。与川东石炭-二叠系碳酸盐岩相比,中低级有序带有一定的油气前景。本区由西向东,由甚低级有序带变化到高级有序带,白云石有序度升高。估计的成岩作用温度为183～200±20℃,压力为330 MPa,...     

朱仙庄煤矿“五含”水文地质特征及水害防治对策

淮北朱仙庄煤矿北部采区8煤开采主要水害威胁来自顶板侏罗系\     

2020年夏季鄂西南一次极端暴雨过程成因分析

2020年7月26日鄂西南出现了一次极端暴雨过程,建始县城区及附近乡镇在10 h内雨量超过250 mm,导致罕见山洪灾害。利用常规资料,结合地面加密自动站、多普勒天气雷达以及高分辨率EC再分析资料,分析该过程天气形势背景、中尺度环境,以及暴雨中尺度对流系统发生发展过程及其机理,揭示极端暴雨成因。结果表明：（1）中高纬度维持两槽一脊,低纬度副热带高压稳定且位置适中,是鄂西南强降水较长时间维持的有利条件;（2）冷空气侵入四川盆地导致西南涡发展,涡前西南暖湿气流加强,加上鄂西南地形辐合抬升作用,形成深厚正涡度柱和强烈垂直上升运动,是导致极端暴雨产生的重要原因;（3）建始县附近先后经历了后向传播型（BB-QS）及涡旋型（VS）两个中尺度对流系统的影响,而“倒喇叭口”地形导致雷暴冷池逆流并与环境风形成稳定的中尺度辐合上升运动,是极端暴雨中尺度对流系统形成的关键因素。     

天然气的扩散模型及扩散量的计算方法

盖层的存在是天然气成藏和保存的必要条件之一,而浓度封闭又是盖层的一种重要的封闭机理。在前人工作的基础上,研究了浓度封闭的机理,进一步系统建立了天然气扩散的地质和数学模型,并给出了模型的初始化条件,对天然气扩散量的计算方法作了讨论。     

一种顾及现势指向的上行天线阵相位中心精确标校方法

针对上行天线阵相位中心标校技术粗糙、精度不高等问题,引入精密工程测量技术测定天线实际状态,提出了一种顾及现势指向的相位中心精确标校方法。首先,利用工业摄影测量系统获取天线各姿态的型面数据,并通过最小二乘法拟合求解出现势性强的机械轴;然后,用矩阵法解算各姿态下机械轴的交点作为旋转中心;最后,基于反角度加权插值法推估得到天线在任意姿态下的机械轴,进而从投影中心沿机械轴延伸既定长度获得可靠的相位中心。以3台φ3 m上行阵天线为试验对象,通过工程控制网统一摄影测量坐标系,并按照本文方法标校天线相位中心。电信号合成效果表明,本文方法能有效克服天线自重变形、机械安装等因素的影响,实现了相位中心的精确标校,增强了上行天线阵合成信号的幅度。     

Using Different Standardized Methods for Species Identification: A Case Study Using Beaks from Three Ommastrephid Species

The cephalopod beak is a vital hard structure with a stable configuration and has been widely used for the identification of cephalopod species. This study was conducted to determine the best standardization method for identifying different species by measuring 12 morphological variables of the beaks of Illex argentinus, Ommastrephes bartramii, and Dosidicus gigas that were collected by Chinese jigging vessels. To remove the effects of size, these morphometric variables were standardized using three methods. The average ratios of the upper beak morphological variables and upper crest length of O. bartramii and D. gigas were found to be greater than those of I. argentinus. However, for lower beaks, only the average of LRL (lower rostrum length)/LCL (lower crest length), LRW (lower rostrum width)/LCL, and LLWL (lower lateral wall length)/LCL of O. bartramii and D. gigas were greater than those of I. argentinus. The ratios of beak morphological variables and crest length were found to be all significantly different among the three species (P < 0.001). Among the three standardization methods, the correct classification rate of stepwise discriminant analysis (SDA) was the highest using the ratios of beak morphological variables and crest length. Compared with hood length, the correct classification rate was slightly higher when using beak variables standardized by crest length using an allometric model. The correct classification rate of the lower beak was also found to be greater than that of the upper beak. This study indicates that the ratios of beak morphological variables to crest length could be used for interspecies and intraspecies identification. Meanwhile, the lower beak variables were found to be more effective than upper beak variables in classifying beaks found in the stomachs of predators.     

海阳核电区域潮流特征分析

采用短期资料的潮流准调和分析方法,对水深为4.5~22.5m的海阳核电站6个测站3个周日潮流观测获得的表、中、底层的潮流资料进行了分析。分析结果表明:该区域基本以半日潮为主,且半日分潮中M2振幅大于S2,全日潮仅存在个别站位的个别水层中;测区的潮流属于正规半日潮,但其分潮比WM_4/WM_2大于0.04,表明测区中浅海分潮流具有较大的比重,故测区的潮流性质应为不正规半日浅海潮流的类型;各站位各层表现出不同的潮流运动形式,往复流和旋转流同时存在,不同站位、层次之间的明显差异还需要结合详细的地形调查展开研究;大部分站位的余流流速呈现表层>中层>底层,大致呈现自东北向西南流。     

A copula-based model for air pollution portfolio risk and its efficient simulation

This paper introduces a portfolio approach for quantifying pollution risk in the presence of PM\(_{2.5}\) concentration in cities. The model used is based on a copula dependence structure. For assessing model parameters, we analyze a limited data set of PM\(_{2.5}\) levels of Beijing, Tianjin, Chengde, Hengshui, and Xingtai. This process reveals a better fit for the t-copula dependence structure with generalized hyperbolic marginal distributions for the PM\(_{2.5}\) log-ratios of the cities. Furthermore, we show how to efficiently simulate risk measures clean-air-at-risk and conditional clean-air-at-risk using importance sampling and stratified importance sampling. Our numerical results show that clean-air-at-risk at 0.01 probability level reaches up to \(352\,{\mu \hbox {gm}^{-3}}\) (initial PM\(_{2.5}\) concentrations of cities are assumed to be \(100\,{\mu \hbox {gm}^{-3}}\)) for the constructed sample portfolio, and that the proposed methods are much more efficient than a naive simulation for computing the exceeding probabilities and conditional excesses.     

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