青藏高原未来气候变化预估:CMIP5模式结果

本文使用国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)中对青藏高原气候模拟较优的气候模式, 在RCP4.5中等偏低辐射强迫情景下对青藏高原未来气候变化进行了预估研究。结果表明, 青藏高原年均地表气温在2006~2100年的线性趋势平均为0.26℃/10a, 增暖幅度与海拔高度大体成正比;相比于1986~2005年参考时段, 2090年代平均升温2.7℃, 21世纪末期增温幅度明显高于早期和中期;在早、中和末期, 年均增温分别为0.8~1.3℃、1.6~2.5℃和2.1~3.1℃;各季节也均为变暖趋势, 其中冬季增温最大。对于年均降水来说, 未来百年将小幅增加, 集合平均趋势为1.15%/10a, 2090年代较参考时段增加10.4%;在早、中和末期的变化范围分别为-1.8%至15.2%、-0.9%至17.8%和1.4%至21.3%;季节降水也呈增加趋势, 夏季增幅明显高于其余三个季节且在21世纪末期较大, 青藏高原未来年均降水增加主要来自于夏季。需要指出的是, 上述预估结果在气候模式间存在着一定的差异, 未来气候变化的不确定性范围较大, 地表气温的可信度相对较高, 而降水的则偏低。     

全球变暖背景下青藏高原夏季气温在对流层上下反相变化及其与降水和环流的关系

本文利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料及中国596个测站月降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、经验正交函数分解(EOF)、相关分析、合成分析等方法,对青藏高原夏季对流层气温垂直变化及其与降水和环流的关系进行了分析。气温垂直变化特征分析表明:自1971年以来,青藏高原夏季对流层低层至对流层中上部气温呈现显著增暖趋势,对流层上部气温呈现显著变冷趋势,高原对流层低层至中上部气温及对流层上部气温在年际、年代际尺度上均呈较显著负相关,且均存在2~4 a及8~13 a的周期;夏季青藏高原地区沿27.5°N~40°N平均的气温距平垂直分布的EOF分解第一模态特征向量在对流层表现为"下降温上增温"的反相变化,其时间系数呈显著负趋势,且存在1978年及1994年的突变点。高原夏季气温在对流层的上下反相变化与我国夏季降水的关系在年际、年代际尺度上均显示:当高原对流层低层至对流层中上部升温而对流层上部降温时,我国夏季降水表现为南方型,其中以江南至华南地区降水显著偏多而我国东北地区降水显著偏少为主要分布特征;另外,长江流域的局部地区及我国西北的部分地区降水也明显偏少,而华北东部的局部地区、青藏高原中部及东部地区以及新疆西北部地区降水明显偏多;降水异常分布在年代际尺度上比年际尺度更显著。环流分析显示:当高原对流层低层至对流层中上部升温而对流层上部降温时东亚中高纬度地区为异常高压控制,中低纬度地区受异常低压影响。环流场与降水分布有较好的配置关系。     

中尺度涡旋混合参数空间变化对物理场以及CFC-11模拟的影响

本文选用中国科学院大气物理研究所全球海洋模式(LICOM),对中尺度涡旋参数化方案(GM90方案)中等密度扩散系数和等密度面厚度扩散系数(统称为涡旋扩散系数A_ρ)对物理场及CFC-11(一氟三氯甲烷)分布的影响进行了研究。本文做了两个试验,即涡旋扩散系数采用常系数方式(对照试验)和采用在非绝热层以下A_ρ随海洋浮力频率垂直变化的参数化方案(浮力试验)。模拟结果表明,依浮力频率垂直变化的方案对模式物理场的模拟能力有一定程度的提升,如南极绕极流的输送强度比常系数方案增大了约20%~30%,与观测事实更接近;浮力试验对对照试验中过强的南极中层水有一定的削弱作用,使得模式对南大洋高纬次表层位密度的模拟有一定的改善。稍有不足的是,浮力试验对南极底层水也有一定的削弱,使得2000~3000 m深度位密度模拟较常系数方案偏低。通过对CFC-11分布、存储以及输送的研究发现,次网格参数取值的不同对南大洋CFC-11模拟情况有较大影响。浮力试验加大了南北高纬CFC-11海表的吸收通量,对南极大陆周边海域向南大洋主储藏区(34°S~60°S)的CFC-11输送能力有一定的增强,使得南大洋对CFC-11储藏量增大,大部分海区与观测资料更接近。通过CFC-11断面分析,浮力试验对南大洋上层海洋位密度模拟的改善使得CFC-11垂直结构与观测更接近。     

西南地区极端降水变化趋势

利用西南地区90个气象台站1970-2010年逐日降水量资料,依据世界气象组织(WMO)定义的连续5d最大降水量、总降水量、强降水比等6种极端降水指数,采用F检验、11a滑动平均等统计方法,研究了西南地区极端强降水变化趋势的时空变化特征。在时间上,西南地区近41年来冬、春、夏季连续5d最大降水量缓慢波动上升,秋季连续5d最大降水量呈下降趋势;强降水、降水强度及强降水比呈上升趋势,但总降水量和最长持续无降水日数呈减少趋势;另外,各极端降水指数还存在明显的年际、年代际变化。在空间上,西南地区极端降水变化趋势具有显著的地域差异,呈东西或西北东南向梯度变化特征。其中冬季连续5d最大降水量、降水强度、强降水比及最长持续无降水日数,在西南大部分地区呈增加趋势。秋季连续5d最大降水量与总降水量在西南大部分地区呈减少趋势。而春、夏季连续5d最大降水量和强降水的增减区域大致相当。     

A Storm Surge Intensity Classification Based on Extreme Water Level and Concomitant Wave Height

Storm surge is one of the predominant natural threats to coastal communities. Qingdao is located on the southern coast of the Shandong Peninsula in China. The storm surge disaster in Qingdao depends on various influencing factors such as the intensity, duration, and route of the passing typhoon, and thus a comprehensive understanding of natural coastal hazards is essential. In order to make up the defects of merely using the warning water level, this paper presents two statistical distribution models(Poisson Bi- variable Gumbel Logistic Distribution and Poisson Bi-variable Log-normal Distribution) to classify the intensity of storm surge. We emphasize the joint return period of typhoon-induced water levels and wave heights measured in the coastal area of Qingdao since 1949. The present study establishes a new criterion to classify the intensity grade of catastrophic storms using the typhoon surge estimated by the two models. A case study demonstrates that the new criterion is well defined in terms of probability concept, is easy to implement, and fits well the calculation of storm surge intensity. The procedures with the proposed statistical models would be useful for the disaster mitigation in other coastal areas influenced by typhoons.     

S, C, O, H Isotope Data and Noble Gas Studies of the Maoniuping LREE Deposit, Sichuan Province, China： A Mantle Connection for Mineralization

The Maoniuping REE deposit, located about 22 km to the southwest of Mianning, Sichuan Province, is the second largest light REE deposit in China, subsequent to the Bayan Obo Fe-Nb-REE deposit in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Tectonically, it is located in the transitional zone between the Panxi rift and the Longmenshan-Jinpingshan orogenic zone. It is a carbonatite vein-type deposit hosted in alkaline complex rocks. The bastnaesite-barite, bastnaesite-calcite, and bastnaesite-microcline lodes are the main three types of REE ore lodes. Among these, the first lode is distributed most extensively and its REE mineralization is the strongest. Theδ34Sv-CDT values of the barites in the ore of the deposit vary in a narrow range of +5.0 to +5.1‰in the bastnaesite-calcite lode and +3.3 to +5.9‰in the bastnaesite-barite lode, showing the isotopic characteristics of magma-derived sulfur. Theδ13Cv-PDB values and theδ518OV-SMOW values in the bastnaesite-calcite lode range from -3.9 to -6.9‰and from +7.3 to +9.7‰, respectively, which fall into the range of "primary carbonatites", showing that carbon and oxygen in the ores of the Maoniuping deposit were derived mainly from a deep source. Theδ13Cv-PDB values of fluid inclusions vary from -3.0 to -5.6‰, with -3.0 to -4.0‰in the bastnaesite-calcite lode and -3.0 to -5.6‰in the bastnaesite-barite lode, which show characteristics of mantle-derived carbon. TheδDv-SMOW values of fluid inclusions range from -57 to -88‰, with -63 to -86‰in the bastnaesite-calcite lode and -57 to -88‰in the bastnaesite-barite lode, which show characteristics of mantle-derived hydrogen. Theδ18OH2OV-SMOW values vary from +7.4 to +8.6‰in the bastnaesite calcite lode, and +6.7 to +7.8‰in the bastnaesite-barite lode, almost overlapping the range of +5.5 to +9.5‰for magmatic water. The 4He content, R/Ra ratios are (13.95 to 119.58×10-6 (cm3/g)STP and 0.02 to 0.11, respectively, and 40Ar/36Ar is 313±1 to 437±2. Considering the 4He increase caused by high contents of radioactive elements, a mantle-derived fluid probably exists in the inclusions in the fluorite, calcite and bastnaesite samples. The Maoniuping deposit and its associated carbonatite-alkaline complex were formed in 40.3 to 12.2 Ma according to K-Ar and U-Pb data. All these data suggest that large quantities of mantle fluids were involved in the metallogenic process of the Maoniuping REE deposit through a fault system.     

东亚夏季风的自然变率——NCAR Cam3模拟结果分析

利用季节循环的全球观测海表温度及海冰驱动NCAR Cam3全球大气环流模式的100a模拟结果,通过定义东亚夏季风指数,分析了模拟的大气内部变化中东亚夏季风的变化特征。结果表明:模拟的东亚夏季风自然变率主要表现为3~7a较显著的年际周期,并具有较明显的年代际变化特征。在弱夏季风年代,亚洲大陆海平面气压增强,日本附近及东亚沿海地区海平面气压降低;500hPa位势高度上,欧洲地区为负高度距平,里海附近地区为正高度距平,日本及其以东太平洋为负高度距平,易形成类似欧亚(EU)型的遥相关波列。在强夏季风年代,其环流异常分布基本与弱夏季风年代相反。模拟的东亚夏季风变化与夏季大气内部500hPa高度场上EU型遥相关波列的关系密切。     

广州夏季雨水硝酸盐δ15N变化特征

通过对广州2007年夏季雨水硝酸盐δ15的研究,讨论了广州地区雨水硝酸盐的主要来源及与之有关的大气化学演变过程。雨水硝酸盐占δ15N的变化趋势与N2O5含量的相似。暗示雨水硝酸盐δ15N与氮氧化合物的大气化学过程之间存在某种联系。白天雨水硝酸盐δ15N值偏低,与OH自由基氧化NOx生成硝酸盐的“白天反应”为主要反应相一致;18：00以后硝酸盐δ15N值呈升高趋势,则与N2O5累积的“夜间反应”成为主导反应相一致。因“白天反应”生成的HNO3的δ15N值受同位素分馏影响较小,白天雨水硝酸盐占δ15N值更能准确反映大气NOx的来源。白天雨水硝酸盐占δ15N平均值为2．5‰±2．1‰,表明除火力发电厂和机动车尾气排放来源外,雷电以及海源对大气NOx可能也有潜在贡献。     

On the DB gap of white dwarf evolution:effects of hydrogen mass fraction and convective overshooting

We investigate the spectral evolution of white dwarfs by considering the effects of hydrogen mass in the atmosphere and convective overshooting above the convection zone.Our numerical results show that white dwarfs with MH～10-16M⊙ show the DA spectral type between 46000■Teff■26000K and the DO or DB spectral type may appear on either side of this temperature range.White dwarfs with10-15M⊙ appear as DA stars until they cool to Teff～31000K;from then on they will evolve into DB white dwarfs as a result of conve...     

Magnetic activity of the spotted dwarf AP149 in the α Persei open cluster

The simultaneous photometric and spectroscopic observations of the spotted G dwarf AP149 in the young open cluster α Persei are analyzed here.We reconstruct the observed light curves with a two-starspot model by means of a light curve modeling technique,and find that the active regions shift oppositely along longitude on a time scale of one day.Combining with the observational data obtained by other groups,we discuss the evolution of spotted regions in the photosphere,and find that its starspots evolve not ...