用化石天长计算地球年龄的方法及意义——如何理解地球年龄

天长（一天时长）是地球自转速度的直接反映。古生代-中生代化石记录的天长数据表明,古生代-中生代期间的天长随时间呈线性增加。根据角动量守恒定律,这意味着同时段地球自转速度呈线性衰减。如果把这个趋势应用于地球历史的全过程,计算结果为4.519～4.495 Ga,与目前公认的地球绝对年龄4.54 Ga一致。这意味着,从这个时间点起,地球有一种自转速度衰减的总趋势。地球自转速度衰减年龄等值于地球年龄说明：1）所测量的陨石样本生成的时间（表征地球年龄）与地球受月球吸引形成自转减速的时间几乎相同。这意味着地-月体系形成之前的地球比该陨石表征的地球年龄更为古老。2）地球、月球、自转速度衰减时长,三者的年龄呈现等值状态,因而此结果与月球起源于大碰撞的假说可以匹配。     

Club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of carbon intensity in China’s construction industry

Climate change caused by carbon emissions continuously threatens sustainable development. Due to China’s immense territory, there are remarkable regional differences in carbon emissions. The construction industry, which has strong internal industrial differences, further leads to carbon emission disparity in China. Policymakers should consider spatial effects and attempt to eliminate carbon emission inequality to promote the sustainable development of the construction industry and realize emission reduction targets. Based on the classic Markov chain and spatial Markov chain, this paper investigates the club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of China’s carbon intensity in the construction industry from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the provincial carbon intensity in the construction industry is characterized by “convergence clubs” during the research period, and very low-level and very high-level convergence clubs have strong stability. Moreover, the carbon intensity class transitions of provinces tend to be consistent with that of their neighbors. Furthermore, the transition of carbon intensity types is highly influenced by their regional backgrounds. The provinces with high carbon emissions have a negative influence on their neighbors, whereas the provinces with low carbon emissions have a positive influence. These analyses provide a spatial interpretation to the “club convergence” of carbon intensity.     

Evaluating climate change adaptation efforts on the US 50 states’ hazard mitigation plans

Climate change brings uncertain risks of climate-related natural hazards. The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA in Climate change: long-term trends and their implications for emergency management, 2011. https://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/climate_change_paper.pdf) has issued a policy directive to integrate climate change adaptation actions into hazard mitigation programs, policies, and plans. However, to date there has been no comprehensive empirical study to examine the extent to which climate change issues are integrated into state hazard mitigation plans (SHMPs). This study develops 18 indicators to examine the extent of climate change considerations in the 50 SHMPs. The results demonstrate that these SHMPs treat climate change issues in an uneven fashion, with large variations present among the 50 states. The overall plan quality for climate change considerations was sustained at an intermediate level with regard to climate change-related awareness, analysis, and actions. The findings confirm that climate change concepts and historic extreme events have been well recognized by the majority of SHMPs. Even though they are not specific to climate change, mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help reduce climate change risks have been adopted in these plans. However, the plans still lack a detailed assessment of climate change and more incentives for collaboration strategies beyond working with emergency management agencies.     

基于MODIS数据的青藏高原冰川反照率时空分布及变化研究

冰川反照率对冰川融化具有重要影响,以2000-2013年MODIS的MOD10A1逐日积雪反照率数据资料为基础,分析了青藏高原冰川反照率的时空分布及变化。结果表明：冰川年平均反照率变化范围是0.42（枪勇冰川）~0.75（PT5冰川）,其中夏季平均反照率变化范围是0.45（来古冰川）~0.69（东绒布冰川和古里雅冰川）。冰川反照率空间分布并没有明显的规律性,而冰川反照率的变化速率空间分布规律明显——南部较大往北减小,北部反照率出现增大现象。研究区内大部分冰川反照率呈波动降低的趋势,年平均反照率和夏季平均反照率变化速率最大值都出现在枪勇冰川,分别是-0.015 a^-1和-0.019 a^-1。木吉和木孜塔格冰川年平均和夏季平均冰川反照率都增大,木吉冰川是由于2012年的高反照率引起的,而木孜塔格冰川主要与该地区气温降低、降水增多有关。     

A model for the representation of emergency cases

The aim of this paper is to propose a location model of earthquake emergency service depot on the basis of hybrid multi-attribute decision-making method. The advantage of the proposed method is that practical mixed uncertainty of location decision information is considered, and the corresponding factors that affect the location of transfer stations are contained. To solve the location problem, a hybrid multi-attribute decision procedure without information transformation is developed. Besides, a novel weighting method and aggregation process is given. Finally, a numerical example is provided to show the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.     

Sinian-Cambrian Tectonic Framework in the Tarim Basin and its Influences on the Paleogeography of the Early CambrianEI北大核心CSCD

Due to strong remodification and sparse trace remnants, tectonic restoration is critical for the reconstructing of the paleography and basin-prototype in the multiple-cycles superimposed basin, which is also fundamental for the hydrocarbon exploration of the deep marine carbonate in the Tarim Basin. This study presents the tectonic framework of the transition phase from the Sinian to the Cambrian Period and its constrains on the paleography of the Cambrian in the Tarim Basin based on comprehensive analysis of new geochronology data, seismic data and regional tectonic data. The results showed that (1) there is a large regional unconformity between the Cambrian and Precambrian, suggesting a discontinuous deposition from the Sinian to the Cambrian that is contrary to the major view; (2) a broad flattened paleotopography formed before Cambrian Period, which is favorable for the wide epicontinental sea environment and a gentle homoclinal ramp platform development in the early Cambrian, and the residual basement low relief uplifts that influence the microfacies differentiation in the carbonate platform; (3) the Cambrian carbonate platform has been involved much into the marginal orogenic belts, and the proto-platform is probably of 200 km out of the present basin in S-N direction; (4) there is a weak extensional setting in the Cambrian-Early Ordovician rather than a strong rifting setting with a large aulacogen into the platform, in which a inter-platform shallow depression and stable ramp platform developed in the Cambrian; (5) there is not troughs, but rather low relief uplifts developed in the Early Cambrian in the southwestern Tarim Basin, and lack of large uplifts along the carbonate platform margins; (6) it is showed a broad architecture of platform-wide slope-ocean basin from the inner Tarim plate to its margin in the Cambrian Period. Considering the basin prototype, the restoration of the tectono-paleography in the early Cambrian in the Tarim Basin is distinct from those of the previously proposed. We propose that a gentle pattern with “two platforms and one inter-depression” in E-W striking other than multiple small platform constrained in the basin, and further subdivision of the western platform with inner platform low uplift and sag in N-S striking, which is possibly inherited from the basement architecture. On the outer of the united platform, there is probably broad gentle slope for transition to ocean basin. We therefore argue that tectonic restoration is crucial for reconstruction of the paleogeography and basin prototype, especially for basins experienced multiphase of tectonic cycles. © 2018, Science Press. All right reserved.     

Generation and Development of Structures and Their Controls on Ore Mineralization in the Lehong Zinc-lead Deposit,Northeastern YunnanEI北大核心CSCD

The Lehong zinc-lead deposit is one of the new-found large Zn-Pb deposits in the Sichuan- Yunnan-Guizhou Zn-Pb poly-metallic mineralization area. The ore-bodies of the Lehong deposit are strictly controlled by structures, and the fault tectonites can be divided into four groups which include morbruk rock, cataclastic rock and tectonic breccia. The mechanical properties of the faults suggest that there are five tectonic systems formed in the Caledonian-early Hercynian, Indosinian-early Yanshanian, mid-Yanshanian, late Yanshanian and Himalayan periods, respectively. The Lehong fault and the Qiaojia-Lianfeng fault are two important ore-controlling structures which might have acted as channel ways of the ore fluids. The ores are hosted in the subordinary fracture zone, joint fracture zone and interlayer fault zones in trailing folds of the Lehong fault and the Baobaoshang syncline and Jinjiagou anticline. Hence, the Lehong deposit is a tectonic -controlled ore deposit. These research do not only lay a foundation for studying deposit genesis and ore-finding direction in the Lehong deposit, but also provides important enlightenments for the ore-finding prognosis of lead-zinc deposits in northwestern Guizhou ore concentration district. © 2018, Science Press. All right reserved.     

Research Progress and Prospect on Reactivation of Ancient Landslides

The ancient landslide has endured long-term slope evolution which results in its complicated material and special rock-soil properties. The risk of ancient landslide reactivation is substantially increasing due to the increase of intensified human engineering activities and the frequency of extreme weather events. Many ancient landslides have been reactivated all over the world and led to serious fatalities and severe damage to many important engineering facilities such as transportation and hydropower engineering projects. On the basis of the analysis of the research situation about the ancient landslides at home and abroad, the main research advances were summarized including the regional developing laws and recognizing of the ancient landslides, the mechanics properties of ancient landslide body and related sliding zone, reactivation mechanism of ancient landslides, reactivating process and modeling analysis of ancient landslides, early recognization of ancient landslide reactivation, etc. To meet the demands of disaster prevention and reduction, three key scientific issues were put forward to be solved: ①automaticaly establishing the methodology and identification criterions for recognition of ancient landslide; ②revealing the reactivation mechanism of ancient landslide based on a new strength theory; ③establishing the early rapid recognition method and predictive model for ancient landslide reactivation. Solving the above mentioned scientific theory and methodology will facilitate the planning and site selection of major projects as well as the disaster prevention and reduction in ancient landslide developing areas.     

一种盾构施工引起的地面沉降预测方法

针对盾构施工引起的地面沉降的影响因素众多、关系错综复杂,常规数学模型难以准确预测沉降量的问题,该文提出了采用主成分分析法和粒子群优化的支持向量机方法来建立预测模型。并结合工程实例将预测结果与常用的多元线性回归模型和基于Levenberg-Marquardt算法改进的BP神经网络模型(LM-BP)的预测结果做了比较。结果表明:PCA-PSO-SVM的预测结果精度较多元线性回归模型和LM-BP神经网络有很大的提高,证明了该研究方法具有一定的理论意义和参考价值。     

Beidou satellite maneuver thrust force estimation for precise orbit determination

Beidou satellites, especially geostationary earth orbit (GEO) and inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) satellites, need to be frequently maneuvered to keep them in position due to various perturbations. The satellite ephemerides are not available during such maneuver periods. Precise estimation of thrust forces acting on satellites would provide continuous ephemerides during maneuver periods and could significantly improve orbit accuracy immediately after the maneuver. This would increase satellite usability for both real-time and post-processing applications. Using 1 year of observations from the Multi-GNSS Experiment network (MGEX), we estimate the precise maneuver periods for all Beidou satellites and the thrust forces. On average, GEO and IGSO satellites in the Beidou constellation are maneuvered 12 and 2 times, respectively, each year. For GEO satellites, the maneuvers are mainly in-plane, while out-of-plane maneuvers are observed for IGSO satellites and a small number of GEO satellites. In most cases, the Beidou satellite maneuver periods last 15–25 min, but can be as much as 2 h for the few out-of-plane maneuvers of GEO satellites. The thrust forces acting on Beidou satellites are normally in the order of 0.1–0.7 mm/s². This can cause changes in velocity of GEO/IGSO satellites in the order of several decimeters per second. In the extreme cases of GEO out-of-plane maneuvers, very large cross-track velocity changes are observed, namely 28 m/s, induced by 5.4 mm/s² thrust forces. Also, we demonstrate that by applying the estimated thrust forces in orbit integration, the orbit errors can be estimated at decimeter level in along- and cross-track directions during normal maneuver periods, and 1–2 m in all the orbital directions for the enormous GEO out-of-plane maneuver.