Evaluating of the earthquake hazard parameters with Bayesian method for the different seismic source regions of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

The earthquake hazard parameters and earthquake occurrence probabilities are computed for the different regions of the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) using Bayesian method. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M _S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for a time period between 1900 and 2015. Only two historical earthquakes (1766, M _S = 7. 3 and 1897, M _S = 7. 0) are included in Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the near future since no large earthquake has been observed for the instrumental period. In order to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters for next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years, M _max (maximum regional magnitude), β value, λ (seismic activity or density) are computed for the different regions of NAFZ. The computed M _max values are changed between 7.11 and 7.89. While the highest magnitude value is calculated in the Region 9 related to Tokat-Erzincan, the lowest value in the Region 10 including the eastern of Erzincan. The “quantiles” of “apparent” and “true” magnitudes of future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % of the 10 different seismic source regions. The region between Tokat and Erzincan has earthquake hazard level according to the determined parameters. In this region the expected maximum earthquake size is 7.8 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years. While the regional M _max value of Marmara Region is computed as 7.61, expected maximum earthquake size is 7.37 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years.     

内蒙二连盆地赛汉塔拉凹陷下白垩统层序地层及有利成藏条件

赛汉塔拉凹陷是二连盆地主要的油气富集凹陷之一,面积2300 km2〖KG-*2〗,探明石油地质储量1458万吨。论文应用层序地层学的基本理论,根据钻井和三维地震资料,在下白垩统中识别出5个层序界面,以此将该套地层划分为4个三级层序和12个体系域,建立了赛汉塔拉凹陷下白垩统层序地层格架。通过层序内部沉积体系及其演化的研究,对层序格架内的烃源岩条件、储集层条件等成藏要素进行了综合分析,确定了3套生储盖组合。综合分析表明,阿尔善组中下部、腾一段中部的近岸水下扇和浊积扇砂体,垂向上与烃源岩直接连通,可形成有效的生储盖组合,在凹陷生油中心附近易形成有效的岩性圈闭,成为凹陷最有利的油气聚集带,是下一步的重点勘探目标。     

桂林地区水南洞14～25万年石笋的碳氧同位素记录和古气候重建

通过对桂林水南洞石笋进行高精度的热电离质谱(TIMS－U)测年和碳氧同位素分析,建立了桂林地区245.20 ka BP至147.90 ka BP间的古气候变化时间序列,确定了石笋记录的时段B与时段C分界的年龄为242.5±6.4 ka BP(相当于深海岩芯氧同位素标准曲线时段7与时段8分界的年龄)、时段A与时段B分界的年龄为 192.6±3.9 ka BP(相当于深海岩芯氧同位素标准曲线时段6与时段7分界的年龄)。桂林地区245.20～147.90 ka BP石笋记录的冷暖事件所反映出的古气候变化,大致可分为3个气候变化阶段:(1) 245.2～242.6 ka BP, 相当于深海岩芯氧同位素标准曲线阶段8的末期;(2) 242.5～192.6 ka BP,相当于深海岩芯氧同位素标准曲线时段7;(3)192.6～147.9 ka BP间的倒数第2次冰期, 相当于深海岩芯氧同位素标准曲线时段6的早中期。石笋的TIMS－U测年和碳氧同位素记录揭示,桂林地区245.2～147.9 ka BP的古气候演变历史与深海岩芯时段8末期、时段7和时段6的氧同位素,深海岩芯中记录的孢子花粉组合、CaCO3含量、海平面的升降变化以及与中国北方黄土、古土壤中记录的孢子花粉组合、成壤程度、全铁富集程度、磁化率变化、原生碎屑CaCO3含量和淋溶强度等所揭示的古气候和古季风变化具有极好的对应关系,表明桂林地区中更新世晚期以来的古气候演变既有全球性特征,又有着强烈的区域性特征。     

城市商业土地级差地租的GIS评价方法研究

本文尝试在地理信息系统的支持下，以商业土地级差地租为研究对象，通过建立土地、效能和人口等空间数据库，分别对商业区位，交通和人口三个评价因子定量化，并采用地理环境２辨识模型建立了综合评价指标来进行城市商业地租的等级划分。本文同时还以上海市普陀区为例，讨论了运用地理信息系统软件ＡＲＣ／ＩＮＦＯ进行数据提取的一系列方法，最后，建立了该区土地等级空间数据库，并根据输出的土地等级分布图初步分析了土地规划方向     

皖东南黄片麻岩的锆石U—Pb年龄

在皖东嘉山南黄地区新元古代张八岭岩群之下,隐伏一套角闪岩相的TTG质片麻岩类。单颗锆石U-Pb法年龄测定得到其不一致线上交点年龄为2493±19Ma,代表了片麻岩原岩的形成年龄。这是扬子陆块北东缘首次发现的新太古代基底,证实扬子陆块北缘存在较广泛的新太古代—古元古代基底。     

串联F-K加相移插值法偏移

本文介绍的偏移成像方法为递归F-K法、相移插值法及串联偏移技术的有效结合,简称CFPI法.该方法中,波场外推采用相移插值法中递归向下延拓方式,而每一延拓层间的成像则用文中给出的常速F-K加剩余速度F-K偏移,通过与横向速度变化有关的插值来实现,该过程用FFT完成.该方法可采用较大的延拓步长速归向下外推与成像.理论分析及实际计算结果比较表明,该算法效率远高于相移插值法偏移.     

1990年4月26日共和6.9级地震构造环境及形成原因

本文根据共和6.9级地震发生的地质构造环境及发震断层的空间几何学特征,分析了区域构造活动、变形特征及共和盆地块体的应力平衡,作者认为:龙羊峡水库蓄水荷载,破坏了原有盆地块体的应力平衡,以及水对盆地南缘隐伏断层局部地段的弱化是导致本次地震发生的主要原因。     

第二次全国数值预报会议在京召开

1977年12月22日至28日,在北京举行了第二次全国数值预报会议。参加会议的有来自大专院校、科研机构、新华社、科学出版社、《中国科学》编辑部,以及各省(区)气象局等四十多个单位的代表,共八十多人,提出学术报告七十多篇,会议自始至终是在揭批“四人帮”这个纲的指导之下进行的。代表们愤怒地控诉了“四人帮”破坏科技工作,其中包括数值预报工作的滔天罪行,大会交流了学术论文,并综合评述了会上进行学术交流的情况,肯定了成绩,同时也指出了与国际水平之间的差距。     

Spatial Variability of Turbulent Fluxes in the Roughness Sublayer of an Even-Aged Pine Forest

The spatial variability of turbulent flow statistics in the roughness sublayer (RSL) of a uniform even-aged 14 m (= h) tall loblolly pine forest was investigated experimentally. Using seven existing walkup towers at this stand, high frequency velocity, temperature, water vapour and carbon dioxide concentrations were measured at 15.5 m above the ground surface from October 6 to 10 in 1997. These seven towers were separated by at least 100m from each other. The objective of this study was to examine whether single tower turbulence statistics measurements represent the flow properties of RSL turbulence above a uniform even-aged managed loblolly pine forest as a best-case scenario for natural forested ecosystems. From the intensive space-time series measurements, it was demonstrated that standard deviations of longitudinal and vertical velocities (_u, _w) and temperature (_T) are more planar homogeneous than their vertical flux of momentum (u_* ²) and sensible heat (H) counterparts. Also, the measured H is more horizontally homogeneous when compared to fluxes of other scalar entities such as CO₂ and water vapour. While the spatial variability in fluxes was significant (>15 %), this unique data set confirmed that single tower measurements represent the canonical structure of single-point RSL turbulence statistics, especially flux-variance relationships. Implications to extending the moving-equilibrium hypothesis for RSL flows are discussed. The spatial variability in all RSL flow variables was not constant in time and varied strongly with spatially averaged friction velocity u_*, especially when u_* was small. It is shown that flow properties derived from two-point temporal statistics such as correlation functions are more sensitive to local variability in leaf area density when compared to single point flow statistics. Specifically, that the local relationship between the reciprocal of the vertical velocity integral time scale (I_w) and the arrival frequency of organized structures (/h) predicted from a mixing-layer theory exhibited dependence on the local leaf area index. The broader implications of these findings to the measurement and modelling of RSL flows are also discussed.