Assessment of radionuclide transport uncertainty in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain

The present study assesses the uncertainty of flow and radionuclide transport in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain using a Monte Carlo method. Matrix permeability, porosity, and sorption coefficient are considered random. Different from previous studies that assume distributions of the parameters, the distributions are determined in this study by applying comprehensive transformations and rigorous statistics to on-site measurements of the parameters. The distribution of permeability is further adjusted based on model calibration results. Correlation between matrix permeability and porosity is incorporated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. After conducting 200 Monte Carlo simulations of three-dimensional unsaturated flow and radionuclide transport for conservative and reactive tracers, the mean, variances, and 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles for quantities of interest (e.g., matrix liquid saturation and water potential) are evaluated. The mean and 50th percentile are used as the mean predictions, and their associated predictive uncertainties are measured by the variances and the 5th and 95th percentiles (also known as uncertainty bounds). The mean predictions of matrix liquid saturation and water potential are in reasonable agreement with corresponding measurements. The uncertainty bounds include a large portion of the measurements, suggesting that the data variability can be partially explained by parameter uncertainty. The study illustrates propagation of predictive uncertainty of percolation flux, increasing downward from repository horizon to water table. Statistics from the breakthrough curves indicate that transport of the reactive tracer is delayed significantly by the sorption process, and prediction on the reactive tracer is of greater uncertainty than on the conservative tracer because randomness in the sorption coefficient increases the prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in radionuclide transport is related to uncertainty in the percolation flux, suggesting that reducing the former entails reduction in the latter.     

2007年7月16日日本新溻地震对柏崎刈羽核电站的影响

2007年7月16日日本新溻县柏崎市附近海域发生Mw6．6地震（日本气象局震级MJMA6．8）。该地震引发世界最大核电厂——柏崎刈羽核电站多起核安全事件，是世界范围内有记载的对核电站影响最为严重的一次地震。本文根据收集到的资料，详细介绍了该地震对柏崎刈羽核电站造成的影响，文章最后概述了日本、国际原子能机构对该地震的反思以及我们应该从中吸取的经验教训。     

Upper crust structure of eastern A’nyemaqên suture zone: Results of Barkam-Luqu-Gulang deep seismic sounding profile

Barkam-Luqu-Gulang deep seismic sounding profile runs from north of Sichuan Province to south of Gansu Province. It is located at the northeastern edge of Tibetan Plateau and crosses eastern A’nyemaqên suture zone. The upper crust structures around eastern A’nyemaqên suture zone and its adjacent area are reconstructed based on the arrival times of refracted Pg and Sg waves by using finite difference method, ray tracing inversion, time-term method and travel-time curve analysis. The results show that the depth variation of basement along profile is very strong as indicated by Pg and Sg waves. The basement rose in Zoigê basin and depressed in eastern A’nyemaqên suture zone, and it gradually rose again northward and then depressed. The results also indicate that eastern A’nyemaqên suture zone behaves as inhomogeneous low velocity structures in the upper crust and is inclined toward the south. Hoh Sai Hu-Maqên fault, Wudu-Diebu fault and Zhouqu-Liangdang fault are characterized by low velocity distributions with various scales. The distinct variation in basement depth occurred near Hoh Sai Hu-Maqên fault and Zhouqu-Liangdang fault, which are main tectonic boundaries of A’nyemaqên suture zone. Wudu-Diebu fault, located at the depth variation zone of the basement, possibly has the same deep tectonic background with Zhouqu-Liangdang fault. The strongly depressed basement characterized by low velocity distribution and lateral inhomogeneity in A’nyemaqên suture zone implies crushed zone features under pinching action. Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (40334040).     

Calibration of P/S amplitude ratios for seismic events in Xinjiang and its adjacent areas based on a Bayesian Kriging method

Correction maps of P/S amplitude ratios for seismic events distributed in Xinjiang, China and its adjacent areas were established using a Bayesian Kriging method for the two seismic stations WMQ and MAK. The relationship between correction maps and variations of along-path features was analyzed and the validity of applying the cor- rection maps to improve performances of P/S discriminants for seismic discrimination was investigated. Results show that obtained correction maps can generally reflect event-station path effects upon corresponding P/S dis- criminants; and the correction of these effects could further reduce scatters of distance-corrected P/S measurements within earthquake and explosion populations as well as improve their discriminating performances if path effects are a significant factor of such scatters. For example, as corresponding Kriging correction map was applied, the misidentification rate of earthquakes by Pn(2~4 Hz)/Lg(2~4 Hz) at MAK was reduced from 16.3% to 5.2%.     

沂沭带形变、重磁场时空变化特征与地震活动

综合利用流动水准和流动重磁复测资料,分析沂沭断裂带上地壳形变场和地球物理场的时空强变化特征,揭示沂沭断裂带活动特征是以鲁中隆起的继承性活动为主,沂沭带北端的双山-李家庄断裂两盘的垂直形变受区域断裂控制并与区域地震活动有关,与1983年荷泽地震和1995年苍山地震有较好对应关系;沂水附近地磁场有“窗口效应”,尤其与南黄海地震活动及沂沐断裂带上的小震活动有关。     

三峡水库汛期分期的变点分析方法研究

介绍了变点分析理论，结合三峡水库汛期的分期，阐述了均值变点、概率变点的理论与分析方法。采用宜昌站1882-2001年实测日流量资料，用均值变点分析方法对汛期每日最大洪峰构成的时间序列进行分期；同时选择一定的阈值，在假定发生概率服从二项分布的条件下，应用概率变点分析方法进行分期，最后给出了三峡水库汛期的分期方式。经比较表明，变点分析理论应用于汛期分期中，能反映来水的基本规律，具有一定的应用价值；但从理论上以及防洪的角度来讲，概率变点分析方法较均值变点方法更适于水库汛期的分期计算。     

北京城近郊区土壤对镉的吸附特征研究

在0．1～1200mg／L不同Cd^2＋浓度条件下，进行了五个地区土壤对重金属Cd^2＋的静态吸附实验。土壤分别采自于北京城近郊丰台区北天堂村、大兴区庑殿村、通州区永乐店镇、海淀区四季青乡和朝阳区来广营乡五个地区。实验结果表明：常温常压下，土壤对Cd^2＋的吸附量与加入到土壤中的Cd^2＋总量呈现出一定的正相关。四季青、永乐店的重粉质壤土、庑殿的中粉质壤土及北天堂的轻壤土对Cd^2＋的吸附量S与土壤溶液中的平衡浓度C都基本满足直线拟合。在相同外源Cd^2＋浓度下，土壤对Cd^2＋的吸附量为：庑殿的中粉质壤土〉四季青的重粉质壤土〉永乐店的重粉质壤土〉来广营的重粉质壤土〉北天堂的轻壤土。在所拟实验条件下，土壤对镉的吸附很大程度上受到土壤有机质含量、土壤的粘粒和粉粒所占比例的控制，而酸碱度pH和氧化还原电位Eh对类型不同的土壤的吸附影响效应不很明显。     

利用钾长石粉体合成雪硅钙石的实验研究

以氧化钙为反应物料,在200～250℃的水热反应条件下分解钾长石。实验研究了在不同的Ca/(Si Al)摩尔比、水固比、反应温度和反应时间条件下,钾长石中K2O的溶出率和固相的物相变化。结果表明,液相中K2O的溶出率为40%～87%,固相反应产物为结晶良好雪硅钙石晶体。采用化学分析、XRD、SEM、DSC_TG和BET等方法对合成的雪硅钙石粉体进行了表征,结果表明,合成的雪硅钙石粉体是由长5～10μm、宽100～200nm、厚度为49～50nm的薄片纤维晶体交织成的直径为30～40μm的空心球形团聚体,耐火温度高于650℃,是制备硅酸钙保温材料的良好原料。     

淮北煤田松散层电性特征及富水性评价

根据淮北平原电测深资料结合钻探工作,评述了第四系松散层中砂质类和粘土类的电性特征及分布规律,对松散层中含水层各岩性的电性影响因素进行了分析,认为视电阻率与含砂量和颗粒度与正比,与矿化度成反比;介绍了含水层富水性特征参数的提取方法及电性参数与水文地质参数相关关系,认为视电阻率与含水层的渗透系数成正比.通过对电性资料的认识和区域水质资料的分析,获得了该区面积性水文地质参数.该区富水性评价成果已被实际水文地质资料验证.     

松花江、嫩江洪水等级划分标准及规律分析

松花江（哈尔滨江段）、嫩洒（江桥站）洪水可划分成５个等级。第Ⅰ级为无洪水,又可分为２个副级,即１ａ级为中水,１ｂ级为枯水;第２组为警戒洪水;第３级为一般洪水;第４级为大洪水;第５级为特大洪水。各级划分是采用流体力学能量方程,位能与动力之各用Ｅ指数表示,再将Ｅ值按Ｐ－Ⅲ型分布将其密度函数转换成Ｚ指数,按Ｚ值正态分布特点划分洪水等级。松花江在９８年中共发生过１９次洪水,嫩江在４７年中共发生过１０次洪水