地下水诱发的浅层前兆异常及其机理与有关的地震预报问题(1)

依照“源、场、外”相结合的地震科学研究思路,提出地下水诱发浅层前兆异常机理。认为降水等因素造成的地下水动态变化,可产生一种作用于地壳岩石的附加流体力;地震前,通过多种流体力作用,引起已经积累较高应力的地壳应力－－应变场调整变化,并使岩石强度改变,从而促进与诱发浅层地壳的构造变动;其结果是派生或伴生出地形变、地应力、水化学及地电阻率等多种浅层前兆异常。在降水、地下水的多种周期变化成分中,只有那些能与地壳应力－应变过程产生力学耦合的周期变化,才能调制与诱发出异常,这一部分变化可做为广义的地震前兆。孔隙压力、动水压力以及化学腐蚀等原理,是该异常机理的理论基础。列举出六方面的事实做为该机理直接的或间接的证据。     

拉萨河流域近50 年来径流变化趋势分析

以拉萨水文站以上流域为研究区, 基于拉萨水文站和唐加水文站的水文实测数据和当雄 县等3 个气象站的气候观测数据, 统计分析了1956~2003 年研究区径流的年内、年际变化, 利用 Mann- Kendall 趋势分析法和Pettitt 变点检验法分析了拉萨河流域径流的变化特征, 采用多元回 归方法分析了气候因素( 气温、降水) 对径流变化的影响。结果表明: ( 1) 研究时段内, 径流年际变 化波动较大, 在1970 年前后径流发生了较大的突变, 呈现出明显的增加趋势, 尤以近20 年来的 趋势最大; 月均径流的年际变化中, 有增加趋势的主要分布在冬半年( 11～4 月) 和夏半年的个别 月份( 5、7、9 月) ; ( 2) 流域内气候变化趋势与径流变化趋势基本一致, 但不同月/年均径流受不同 气候因素影响, 主要表现在年平均尺度上受降水影响较大, 在月平均尺度上, 夏半年径流增加趋 势受降水增加影响较大, 而冬半年径流变化则主要与气温有较显著相关性, 其主要原因可能是全 球变暖导致冰川融水增加。     

The relationship between NDVI and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau

The temporal and spatial changes of NDVI on the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the relationship between NDVI and precipitation, were discussed in this paper, by using 8-km resolution multi-temporal NOAA AVHRR-NDVI data from 1982 to 1999. Monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall were used to analyze the seasonal changes, and annual maximum NDVI, annual effective precipitation and growing season precipitation (from April to August) were used to discuss the interannual changes. The dynamic change of NDVI and the corre-lation coefficients between NDVI and rainfall were computed for each pixel. The results are as follows: (1) The NDVI reached the peak in growing season (from July to September) on the Tibetan Plateau. In the northern and western parts of the plateau, the growing season was very short (about two or three months); but in the southern, vegetation grew almost all the year round. The correlation of monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall varied in different areas. It was weak in the western, northern and southern parts, but strong in the central and eastern parts. (2) The spatial distribution of NDVI interannual dynamic change was different too. The increase areas were mainly distributed in southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe zone, western part of western Sichuan-eastern Tibet montane coniferous forest zone, western part of northern slopes of Kunlun montane desert zone and southeastern part of southern slopes of Himalaya montane evergreen broad-leaved forest zone; the decrease areas were mainly distributed in the Qaidam montane desert zone, the western and northern parts of eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe zone, southern Qinghai high cold meadow steppe zone and Ngari montane desert-steppe and desert zone. The spatial distribution of correlation coeffi-cient between annual effective rainfall and annual maximum NDVI was similar to the growing season rainfall and annual maximum NDVI, and there was good relationship between NDVI and rainfall in the meadow and grassland with medium vegetation cover, and the effect of rainfall on vegetation was small in the forest and desert area.     

Vegetation change in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve from 1981 to 2001

Based on the NOAA AVHRR-NDVI data from 1981 to 2001, the digitalized China Vegetation Map (1:1,000,000), DEM, temperature and precipitation data, and field investiga-tion, the spatial patterns and vertical characteristics of natural vegetation changes and their influencing factors in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve have been studied. The results show that: (1) There is remarkable spatial difference of natural vegetation changes in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve and stability is the most common status. There are 5.04% of the whole area being seriously degraded, 13.19% slightly degraded, 26.39% slightly im-proved, 0.97% significantly improved and 54.41% keeping stable. The seriously and slightly degraded areas, which mostly lie in the south of the reserve, are along the national bounda-ries. The areas of improved vegetation lie in the north of the reserve and the south side of the Yarlung Zangbo River. The stable areas lie between the improved and degraded areas. Degradation decreases with elevation. (2) Degeneration in the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Re-serve mostly affects shrubs, needle-leaved forests and mixed forests. (3) The temperature change affects the natural vegetation changes spatially while the integration of temperature changes, slopes and aspects affects the natural vegetation change along the altitude gradi-ents. (4) It is the overuse of resources that leads to the vegetation degeneration in some parts of the Mt. Qomolangma Nature Reserve.     

油田地面工程数字化与建库

本文针对现行油田地面工程数字化与建库方案中存在的问题,提出对油田地面工程的设计和施工等阶段产生的数据与技术资料加以利用的新思路,以及一套全新、高效率、实用的油田地面工程数字化与建库的技术方案与作业流程,并制定了相应的数据收集与整理的技术要求.本文还结合新疆油田石西作业区地面建设工程数字化与建库工程的实践,利用GeoMedia Professional地理信息软件平台进行二次开发,实现了数据的自动化入库.从而解决了现行技术方案中的周期长、人力与物力资源浪费等问题.     

影响自动站降水量数据质量的因素分析

日照是气象台站的基本观测项目之一。目前气象台站所使用的日照计多为暗筒式日照计，它是利用太阳光通过仪器上的小孔射入筒内，使涂有感光剂的日照纸上留有感光迹线来计算日照时数。因此，日照纸的涂药质量，直接关系到日照记录的准确性。     

液氮消冷雾微结构的演变分析

液氮已广泛用于外场的人工增雨和消雾，是“十五”人工影响天气攻关研究和推荐的催化剂之一；其优势在于价廉，对环境无污染，资源丰富，-8℃以上成冰率高于AgI。文章介绍用液氮在首都机场的消雾试验，讨论和分析了消雾前后雾微结构的演变。对地跨北京14个区县，持续48h，能见度最低时达20～30m的气团平流雾连续播撒液氮，35min后下风方4．8km的测立占出现冰雪晶，形状以柱状为主，平均浓度为0．35个／cm^3。冰雪晶的出现破坏了雾的胶性稳定性，能见度很快得以改善，水平能见度增加到300～600m。     

集合预报研究现状与展望

本文系统地论述了集合预报的概念、分类以及国外内的研究现状,在国外的研究现状中重点介绍了目前国际上最先进、最具代表性的两种方法,奇异向量法和增长模繁殖法。国内则介绍了在该方面的最新进展,包括我实验室所做的工作。最后阐述了集合预报的可能发展方向和应用前景。     

Current structure and its variation in the equatorial area of the western north Pacific Ocean

Based on the current measurement data from the R/V Ryofu Maru of JMA in the equatorial area along 137°E (1972–83) and 155°E (1972–79) the structures of the zonal velocity of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) and the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) and their variations are systematically analyzed in detail. At 155°E, the current at the equator and 100–300 m depth was a typical eastward EUC, it intensified in 1973–75, i.e., in the non-El Niño period. While the corresponding current at 137°E was mostly westward, and the origin of the EUC shifted to north of the equator around 0.5–1.5°N owing to the influence of the New Guinea Coast. The EUC origin disappeared in early July, 1982. Comparing with the EUC disappearance at 159°W, the average speed of an eastward travelling wave would be～1.1m/s. The velocity core of the NECC at 137°E generally shifted northward in winter and southward in summer, and was stronger in summer and weaker in winter. The fluctuations of the NECC were closely related to those of the wind stress curl over the region 2–10°N, 160°E–150°W.     

A note on the deep circulation in the area east of Taiwan and the Philippines

The deep water (1000–3000 m) circulation in the area east of Taiwan and the Philippines has been little studied. Moriyasu (1972) and Reid (1981) discussed the 3000 db surface (3000/1200 db) and 2000 db surface (2000/3500 db) circulations of the Philippine Sea Basin, respectively. They both showed that there may be a northward current close to the western margin of the Sea Basin. Recent analyses of two sets of deep sea hydrographic data yielded quite different results, i. e., at deep waters in the area east of Taiwan and the Philippines southward countercurrents flow under the upper northward currents. The possible causative mechanism of these southward deep countercurrents is the blocking effects of the submarine ridge east of Suao and of the Ryukyu Islands Shelf on the northward flowing upper currents. The above-mentioned preliminary deductions were wholely based on consideration of the relative geostrophic current and calculation, though the reference surface (3500 db) was very deep. It is suggested that direct measurements of the deep currents in the study area are needed to verify these results. Contribution No. 1750 from the Institute of Oceanology, Academia Sinica. This paper was presented at the PRC/USA Symposium on Western Pacific Air-Sea Interaction (Nov., 1988, Beijing). This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.