Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

应用低频信号提高高速玄武岩下的成像质量

针对高速玄武岩屏蔽层下深层成像困难的实际问题,采用波动方程波场数值模拟技术,根据玄武岩地层的特点,设计三个相应的简单高速玄武岩模型,通过对深层反射地震信号能量的分析,说明了低频地震信号既具有较强的穿透薄高速玄武岩屏蔽层的能力,也具有减弱因粗糙表面所产生的绕射噪音的能力。一个完整的2D玄武岩模型的模拟试验证明了利用低频信号可以提高高速玄武岩屏蔽层下深层成像的质量,实际资料的低通滤波处理也取得了预期的效果。     

梁山雷电灾害及农村防雷对策的初步分析

利用1961—2000年梁山雷电天气资料,对梁山雷电年、日变化特征进行分析,总结了梁山近40年雷电及其灾害的特征,并提出了相应的农村防雷对策。     

空间直角坐标和大地坐标的转换

目前国内在空间直角坐标和大地坐标转换公式使用问题上 ,还明显缺乏必要的统一性。针对这个问题 ,本文作者在全面分析和比较国内外现有各种转换方法的基础上 ,重点推荐和介绍根据 Bowring研究思路导出的转换公式 ,这组公式既简单又具有很高的计算精度 ,能够满足各个部门的使用要求     

中国石炭纪生物礁造礁群落演化

中国石炭纪造礁群落是弗拉斯期—法门期生物绝灭事件后新兴起的。该群落在早期演化过程中经历了形成、发展、完善和衰落的过程,构成一个群落演化旋回。晚期又开始新一轮的旋回,群落的二分性十分显著。显然,石炭纪造礁群落代表一个不连续的演化过程。     

萝北井水位年动态变化研究

详细讨论了萝北井的年动态变化趋势,并分析了其成因机制。结果表明萝北井各年动态变化曲线出现的Ｗ形异常与地下构造活动无关,主要是由于农田用水引起。     

Two dimensional transient fundamental solution due to suddenly applied load in a half-space

A transient Green function due to suddenly applied line loads in an isotropic and homogeneous half-space is reported in this paper. The derivation of the half-space Green function in the Laplace and the Fourier transform spaces is first reviewed. Following an explicit inversion of the Fourier transform, the inverse Laplace transform is implemented along the contour integral on the p-complex plane in an integral form. The half-space Green function consists of full-space Green functions and a singularity-free complementary term. It can be easily incorporated into current transient boundary elements using the transient full-space Green function. Combined with finite elements, the half-space Green function can be used in a hybrid procedure to solve transient half-space problems without discretization of the free surface. Numerical results are presented to illustrate transient wave propagation in a half-space.     

储层裂缝特征测井解释方法综述

为了更好地研究裂缝性砂砾岩储层和其它裂缝性储层裂缝的测井解释问题,综述了目前在裂缝性储层裂缝测井解释中主要采用的常规评价、人工神经网络和斯通利波３类方法在识别裂缝带和定量计算储层裂缝参数两个方面的应用原理和研究现状,并指出了今后的一些研究方向。     

Impacts of Climatic Factors on Runoff Coefficients in Source Regions of the Huanghe River

Runoff coefficients of the source regions of the Huanghe River in 1956–2000 were analyzed in this paper. In the 1990s runoff of Tangnaihai Hydrologic Station of the Huanghe River experienced a serious decrease, which had at- tracted considerable attention. Climate changes have important impact on the water resources availability. From the view of water cycling, runoff coefficients are important indexes of water resources in a particular catchment. Kalinin baseflow separation technique was improved based on the characteristics of precipitation and streamflow. After the separation of runoff coefficient (R/P), baseflow coefficient (Br/P) and direct runoff coefficient (Dr/P) were estimated. Statistic analyses were applied to assessing the impact of precipitation and temperature on runoff coefficients (including Dr/P, Br/P and R/P). The results show that in the source regions of the Huanghe River, mean annual baseflow coefficient was higher than mean annual direct runoff coefficient. Annual runoff coefficients were in direct proportion to annual pre- cipitation and in inverse proportion to annual mean temperature. The decrease of runoff coefficients in the 1990s was closely related to the decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the same period. Over different sub-basins of the source regions of the Huanghe River, runoff coefficients responded differently to precipitation and temperature. In the area above Jimai Hydrologic Station where annual mean temperature is –3.9oC, temperature is the main factor in- fluencing the runoff coefficients. Runoff coefficients were in inverse relation to temperature, and precipitation had nearly no impact on runoff coefficients. In subbasin between Jimai and Maqu Hydrologic Station Dr/P was mainly affected by precipitation while R/P and Br/P were both significantly influenced by precipitation and temperature. In the area be-tween Maqu and Tangnaihai hydrologic stations all the three runoff coefficients increased with the rising of annual precipitation, while direct runoff coefficient was inversely proportional to temperature. In the source regions of the Huanghe River with the increase of average annual temperature, the impacts of temperature on runoff coefficients be-come insignificant.     

EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON SOIL MOISTURE USING DUAL-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER

1INTRODUCTIONSoil is the basis of human's living. Soil moisture plays asignificant role in studying the matter and energy ex-changes in global hydrology sphere. The evaporation ofsoil moisture has an influence on the water vapor cycle.Meanwhile soil moisture is also one of the firsthandmeasurable parameters in crop yield estimation and wa-ter resources management (JACKSON et al., 1993). Theinfluence of the interaction of land and atmosphere onsoil moisture can bring about anomalous cli…