Forecasting the western Pacific subtropical high index during typhoon activity using a hybrid deep learning model

Seasonal location and intensity changes in the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) are important factors dominating the synoptic weather and the distribution and magnitude of precipitation in the rain belt over East Asia. Therefore, this article delves into the forecast of the western Pacific subtropical high index during typhoon activity by adopting a hybrid deep learning model. Firstly, the predictors, which are the inputs of the model, are analysed based on three characteristics: the first...     

2021年3—5月全球火山活动简报

正1)吉林省地震局,长春1301172)中国地震局火山研究所,长春130117     

Detection of CO Outflow in Rotating Cores

We investigate the effect of bulk motion on the detection of molecular outflows in the sources S 146, GGD27, and IRAS 22566 5830. The traditional techniques do allow for bulk motions or systematic VLSR shifts of the core emissions, which may cause contamination of the high velocity gas emissions, and outflows may either fail to be detected or have their properties miscalculated. We used a program to follow the systematic shift of VLSR and better results have been obtained.     

中国重要金属矿产资源现状、供需、进出口数据集

金属矿产是经济社会发展的物质基础。本数据集采集了16种对国民经济发展有重要影响的大宗紧缺矿产（铁、锰、铜、铝、金、铅、锌、镍、铬）、优势矿产（钨、钼、锡、锑）及战略新兴矿产（锂、钴、钛）2006—2017年的世界及中国资源储量、原矿产量、消费量、贸易量及贸易金额等数据。数据集为Excel表格型数据,包含6个sheet表（世界资源量、中国查明资源储量、中国基础储量、中国原矿产量、中国原矿消费量、中国进出口量）,旨在分析研究我国在工业化进程中后期阶段所需重要金属矿产的资源现状和供需趋势。数据集显示：①我国大宗紧缺矿产如铁、锰、铜、金等查明资源储量虽稳步增长,但开采消耗量大,使得基础储量增速缓慢;未来需求总量仍将维持高位,国内保障程度不足,进口量持续攀升。优势矿产资源钨、锑储采比低,后备资源接替不足,优势程度下降;②战略新兴矿产锂、钴、钛资源量、基础储量增长缓慢或呈下降态势,国内资源品质较差,难利用资源多;产量、消费量近十年快速增长,且未来将持续高增长,国内资源储量增长缓慢,供需矛盾凸显。该数据集对已有金属矿产供需数据的收集和总结,为今后金属矿产勘查及战略部署提供参考。     

植硅体形态测量学研究与应用概述

植硅体形态测量学是植硅体研究的重要方向之一,随着学科交叉研究的深入,植硅体形态测量学在植物分类与生态学、环境考古学、全球变化与生态响应等领域得到快速发展。综合已有研究成果表明,长鞍型植硅体形态测量学在日本、中国的竹亚科属一级竹类生态学具有独特的指示作用,而扇型和长鞍型形态测量学在中国西南西双版纳竹亚科木本竹子属一级分类中具有重要的参考价值;稻亚科扇型形态测量学可以有效区分籼稻与粳稻,且扇型鱼鳞状纹饰与颖壳双峰植硅体形态测量学结合可以准确判别亚洲栽培稻与普通野生稻;黍亚科树状表皮长细胞形态测量学被成功运用到区分中国西北黍和粟及其亲缘物种的关系,葫芦科南瓜属刻面球型植硅体形态测量学揭示了野生种、半驯化种和驯化种之间植硅体形态大小及其关系,证实南美洲低地地区早全新世出现的南瓜驯化历史;中国东北不同环境条件下的禾本科羊草、芦苇植硅体形态测量学研究反映了陆生植物对全球变化的生理生态响应,为研究陆地生态系统对全球变化的响应及古环境重建提供了重要参考。     

柴达木盆地及邻区侏罗纪原型盆地恢复及油气勘探前景

侏罗系是柴达木盆地最重要的源储层系之一。通过野外地质、剖面实测、地震解释、显微构造分析等大量系列资料的综合应用与分析,认为研究区自中生代以来,经历了印支期右行逆冲-走滑构造运动、早—中侏罗世伸展运动、早白垩世北西-南东向挤压及新生代南北向挤压运动,它们与早侏罗世至中侏罗世早期(小煤沟组至大煤沟组)在NE向伸展应力场作用下形成的断陷盆地、中侏罗世晚期至晚侏罗世(彩石岭组—洪水沟组)热力沉降坳陷盆地、早白垩世南北向挤压坳陷盆地密切相关。侏罗纪原型盆地发育三类沉积边界,即盆缘不整合边界(缓坡型和陡坡型边界)、盆内正断层边界、后期逆断层改造边界。不同的现存盆地边界类型对原型盆地恢复的作用不同。侏罗纪盆地以东昆仑构造带为界具有"北陆南洋"的古地理格局,柴达木地区的侏罗纪盆地主要发育在沿岸造山带和岛弧带的山前坳陷以及薄弱的柴北缘加里东俯冲碰撞带之上,形成相对分隔的独立盆地群。柴达木早、中、晚侏罗世原型盆地的分布因受到古特提斯洋向北偏东方向的俯冲作用和阿尔金断裂左旋走滑作用的影响,其沉积中心和沉积范围呈现出从早到晚向东北方向逐渐迁移的规律。早侏罗世盆地的沉积沉降中心主要位于柴北缘西部的冷湖—马海一带,中侏罗世盆地的沉积沉降中心主要位于柴北缘中段的大柴旦—怀头他拉一带,而晚侏罗世盆地的沉积沉降中心主要位于德令哈—乌兰一带。     

Dynamic features of near-inertial oscillations in the Northwestern Pacific derived from mooring observations from 2015 to 2018

Near-inertial oscillation is an important physical process transferring surface wind energy into deep ocean.We investigated the near-inertial kinetic energy(NIKE) variability using acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements from a mooring array deployed in the tropical western Pacific Ocean along130°E at 8.5°N,11°N,12.6°N,15°N,and 17.5°N from September 2015 to January 2018.Spatial features,decay timescales,and significant seasonal variability of the observed NIKE were described.At the mooring sites of 17.5°N,15°N,and 12.6°N,the NIKE peaks occurred in boreal autumn and the NIKE troughs were observed in boreal spring.By contrast,the NIKE at 11°N and 8.5°N showed peaks in winter and troughs in summer.Tropical cyclones and strong wind events played an important role in the emergence of high-NIKE events and explained the seasonality and latitudinal characteristics of the observed NIKE.     

风沙灾害风险评估研究进展

风沙灾害是气象灾害的重要组成部分,具有影响范围大、季节性强、灾害损失大等特点,已成为中国北方沙区的生态灾难,严重影响人居环境和社会经济的可持续发展。为了评估风沙灾害对中国社会经济的影响,已有学者对中国风沙灾害问题进行了长期研究,但对区域风沙灾害风险系统评估研究相对较少,尚未建立系统的风沙灾害风险评价体系。在综合分析近30年相关文献的基础上,借鉴其他自然灾害评估方法,从风沙灾害风险评估理论内涵、评估指标及评估方法等方面对相关研究进行了全面的分析,指出目前风沙灾害风险评估还存在理论不完善、评估模型不合理、孕灾环境指标量化不细致和指标体系繁杂、风险评估方法单一、指标分级和权重计算的主观性强、社会经济数据不能空间化等问题。因此,未来在风沙灾害评估研究时需借鉴、引入和融合其他自然灾害风险评估理论和技术方法,综合近年来在风沙物理学、风沙地貌学、防沙治沙工程学、沙漠化遥感技术和理论等方面的成果,建立多指标的综合风沙灾害评估模型,为预防区域风沙灾害、降低风沙灾害损失和保障"一带一路"经济发展提供理论依据。     

Joint Impacts of SSTA in Tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans on Variations of the WPSH

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and HadISST sea surface temperature (SST) data, the joint effects of the tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific on variations of area of the summertime western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) for period 1980–2016 are investigated. It is demonstrated that the central tropical Indian Ocean (CTI) and central equatorial Pacific (CEP) are two key oceanic regions that affect the summertime WPSH. During autumn and winter, warm SST anomalies (SSTAs) in CEP force the Walker circulation to change anomalously, resulting in divergence anomalies over the western Pacific and Maritime Continent (MC). Due to the Gill-type response, the abnormal anticyclonic circulation is generated over the western Pacific and South China Sea (SCS). In the subsequent spring, the warm SSTAs in CEP weaken, while the SST over CTI demonstrates a lagged response to Pacific SSTA. The warm CTISSTA and CEP-SSTA cooperate with the eastward propagation of cold Kelvin waves in the western Pacific, leading to the eastward shift of the abnormal divergence center that originally locates at the western Pacific and MC. The anticyclone forced by this divergence subsequently moves eastward, leading to the intensification of the negative vorticity there. Meanwhile, warm SSTA in CTI triggers eastward propagating Kelvin waves, which lead to easterly anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean and Indonesia, being favorable for maintenance and intensification of the anticyclone over the SCS and western Pacific. The monsoonal meridional–vertical circulation strengthens, which is favorable for the intensification of the WPSH. Using SSTA over the two key oceanic regions as predictors, a multiple regression model is successfully constructed for prediction of WPSH area. These results are useful for our better understanding the variation mechanisms of WPSH and better predicting summer climate in East Asia.