Uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis

The character and importance of uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis drives how risk assessments are used in practice. The current interpretation of uncertainty is that, in addition to the aleatory risk which arises from presumed uncertainty in the world, it comprises the epistemic aspects of irresolution in a model or forecast, specifically model and parameter uncertainty. This is true in part but it is not all there is to uncertainty in risk analysis. The physics of hazards and of failure may be poorly understood, which goes beyond uncertainty in its conventional sense. There may be alternative scenarios of future conditions, for example non-stationarity in the environment, which cannot easily be forecast. There may also be deep uncertainties of the type associated with climate change. These are situations in which analysts do not know or do not agree on the system characterisation relating actions to consequences or on the probability distributions for key parameters. All of these facets are part of the uncertainty in risk analysis with which we must deal.     

Perspectives on lithospheric evolution through tectonomagmatic processes: a volume in honour of Jaroslav Dostal—an introduction

International Journal of Earth Sciences -     

An autochthonous Avalonian basement source for the latest Ordovician Brenton Pluton in the Meguma terrane of Nova Scotia: U–Pb–Hf isotopic constraints and paleogeographic implications

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Ediacaran–Ordovician Meguma Supergroup was thrust over Avalonia basement prior to the intrusion of post-Acadian, ca. 370 Ma, S-type...     

Hybrid Gaussian-cubic radial basis functions for scattered data interpolation

Scattered data interpolation schemes using kriging and radial basis functions (RBFs) have the advantage of being meshless and dimensional independent; however, for the datasets having insufficient observations, RBFs have the advantage over geostatistical methods as the latter requires variogram study and statistical expertise. Moreover, RBFs can be used for scattered data interpolation with very good convergence, which makes them desirable for shape function interpolation in meshless methods for numerical solution of partial differential equations. For interpolation of large datasets, however, RBFs in their usual form, lead to solving an ill-conditioned system of equations, for which, a small error in the data can cause a significantly large error in the interpolated solution. In order to reduce this limitation, we propose a hybrid kernel by using the conventional Gaussian and a shape parameter independent cubic kernel. Global particle swarm optimization method has been used to analyze the optimal values of the shape parameter as well as the weight coefficients controlling the Gaussian and the cubic part in the hybridization. Through a series of numerical tests, we demonstrate that such hybridization stabilizes the interpolation scheme by yielding a far superior implementation compared to those obtained by using only the Gaussian or cubic kernels. The proposed kernel maintains the accuracy and stability at small shape parameter as well as relatively large degrees of freedom, which exhibit its potential for scattered data interpolation and intrigues its application in global as well as local meshless methods for numerical solution of PDEs.     

Kampelite,Ba3Mg1.5Sc4(PO4)6(OH)3·4H2O,a new very complex Ba-Sc phosphate mineral from the Kovdor phoscorite-carbonatite complex (Kola Peninsula,Russia)

Mineralogy and Petrology - Kampelite, Ba3Mg1.5Sc4(PO4)6(OH)3·4H2O, is a new Ba-Sc phosphate from the Kovdor phoscorite-carbonatite complex (Kola Peninsula, Russia). It is orthorhombic, Pnma,...     

Significance of infiltrated clays within the Lower Permian Yellow Sands of north-east England

The Permian Yellow Sands are preserved as nine aeolian ridges in north-east England. The sands are soft and friable and locally contain large amounts of interstitial detrital clays, which are interpreted as the product of early mechanical clay infiltration. Features within the sands considered to be due to mechanical clay infiltration include grain coatings, meniscus and geopetal fabrics. The infiltrated clays mask crystal nucleation sites on grain surfaces and often amalgamate into lenses or form continuous clay-rich layers. Calcite and quartz cement growth has consequently been limited and often confined to the coarser, generally clay-free horizons. The meniscus and geopetal fabrics were formed early during accretion of the dunes and helped to bind and stabilize the sediment, which restricted reworking during the Zechstein transgression to the uppermost few decimeters.     

Hydrologic artifact dispersals at Pingasagruk,North Coast,Alaska

Situated on a coastal sand bar, Pingasagruk is a habitation site with prehistoric and historic components. Data from systematic surface sampling led to analyses that show different artifact distribution patterns on and off this site and suggest the dispersals are due to storms and erosion, in addition to human activity. To explain the disparate distributions of cultural materials, this study uses a model of hydrologic artifact dispersal and, possibly, differential sorting. Differences in distribution patterns at Pingasagruk highlight the importance of considering how cultural and noncultural transformation processes affect the occurrence of sites and their artifacts. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Highly siderophile element and 187Re‐187Os isotopic systematics of ungrouped achondrite Northwest Africa 7325: Evidence for complex planetary processes

The abundances of highly siderophile elements (HSE; including Re, Os, Ir, Ru, Pt, and Pd) and ¹⁸⁷Re‐¹⁸⁷Os isotopic systematics were determined for two fragments from ungrouped achondrite NWA 7325. Rhenium‐Os systematics are consistent with closed‐system behavior since formation or soon after. The abundances of the HSE were therefore largely unaffected by late‐stage secondary processes such as shock or terrestrial weathering. As an olivine gabbro cumulate, this meteorite has a bulk composition consistent with derivation from a body that produced a core, mantle, and crust. Also consistent with derivation from a body that produced a core, both fragments of NWA 7325 have HSE abundances that are highly depleted compared to bulk chondrites. One fragment has ~0.002× CI chondrite Ir and relative HSE abundances similar to bulk chondrites. The other fragment has ~0.0002× CI chondrite Ir and relative HSE abundances that are fractionated compared to bulk chondrites. The chondritic relative HSE abundances of the fragment characterized by higher HSE abundances most likely reflect the addition of exogenous chondritic material during or after crystallization by surface impacts. The HSE in the other fragment is likely more representative of the parent body crust. One formation model that can broadly account for the HSE abundances in this fragment is multiple episodes of low‐pressure metal‐silicate equilibration, followed by limited late accretion and mantle homogenization. Given the different HSE compositions of the two adjoining fragments, this meteorite provides an example of the overprint of global processes (differentiation and late accretion) by localized impact contamination.     

Diurnal variability in turbidity and coral fluorescence on a fringing reef flat: Southern Molokai,Hawaii

Terrigenous sediment in the nearshore environment can pose both acute and chronic stresses to coral reefs. The reef flat off southern Molokai, Hawaii, typically experiences daily turbidity events, in which trade winds and tides combine to resuspend terrigenous sediment and transport it alongshore. These chronic turbidity events could play a role in restricting coral distribution on the reef flat by reducing the light available for photosynthesis. This study describes the effects of these turbidity events on the Hawaiian reef coral Montipora capitata using in situ diurnal measurements of turbidity, light levels, and chlorophyll fluorescence yield via pulse-amplitude-modulated (PAM) fluorometry. Average surface irradiance was similar in the morning and the afternoon, while increased afternoon turbidity resulted in lower subsurface irradiance, higher fluorescence yield (ΔF/F_m^′), and lower relative electron transport rates (rETR). Model calculations based on observed light extinction coeffecients suggest that in the absence of turbidity events, afternoon subsurface irradiances would be 1.43 times higher than observed, resulting in rETR for M. capitata that are 1.40 times higher.