Earth Fissures in Su–Xi–Chang Region,Jiangsu, China

The earth fissures in the Su-Xi-Chang area are caused by differential land subsidence due to long-term excessive groundwater withdrawal and controlled by the bedrock ridge or cliff underlying. There have been more than 15 earth fissures in the area since 1989. The field investigations have lasted for more than 20 years. The earth fissures generally have a main fissure and a number of secondary ones parallel to the main one. The main fissure (crack) has a scarp, is steeply dipping, and can be more than 2000 m long. Geophysical surveys (2D or 3D seismic investigation, controlled source audio frequency magnetotelluric sounding, and electric sounding) combined with geological drilling are effective for the investigation of earth fissures. Geodetic leveling is effective to monitor the ground deformation across the earth fissure, so is the extensometer for the opening of the fissure. The activities of earth fissures are directly related to different stages of land subsidence and controlled by geological abnormalities. Most earth fissures in the area are still active.     

Modelling soil erosion with a downscaled landscape evolution model

The measurement and prediction of soil erosion is important for understanding both natural and disturbed landscape systems. In particular numerical models of soil erosion are important tools for managing landscapes as well as understanding how they have evolved over time. Over the last 40 years a variety of methods have been used to determine rates of soil loss from a landscape and these can be loosely categorized into empirical and physically based models. Alternatively, physically based landscape evolution models (LEMs) have been developed that provide information on soil erosion rates at much longer decadal or centennial scales, over large spatial scales and examine how they may respond to environmental and climatic changes. Both soil erosion LEMs are interested in similar outcomes (landscape development and sediment delivery) yet have quite different methodologies and parameterizations. This paper applies a LEM (the CAESAR model) for the first time at time and space scales where soil erosion models have largely been used. It tests the ability of the LEM to predict soil erosion on a 30 m experimental plot on a trial rehabilitated landform in the Northern Territory, Australia. It then continues to discuss the synergies and differences between soil erosion and LEMs. The results demonstrate that once calibrated for the site hydrology, predicted suspended sediment and bedload yields from CAESAR show a close correspondence in both volume and timing of field measured data. The model also predicts, at decadal scales, sediment loads close to that of field measured data. Findings indicate that the small‐scale drainage network that forms within these erosion plots is an important control on the timing and magnitude of sediment delivery. Therefore, it is important to use models that can alter the DEM to reflect changing topography and drainage network as well as having a greater emphasis on channel processes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and Commonwealth of Australia     

Model Averaging Techniques for Quantifying Conceptual Model Uncertainty

In recent years a growing understanding has emerged regarding the need to expand the modeling paradigm to include conceptual model uncertainty for groundwater models. Conceptual model uncertainty is typically addressed by formulating alternative model conceptualizations and assessing their relative likelihoods using statistical model averaging approaches. Several model averaging techniques and likelihood measures have been proposed in the recent literature for this purpose with two broad categories—Monte Carlo-based techniques such as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation or GLUE (Beven and Binley 1992) and criterion-based techniques that use metrics such as the Bayesian and Kashyap Information Criteria (e.g., the Maximum Likelihood Bayesian Model Averaging or MLBMA approach proposed by Neuman 2003) and Akaike Information Criterion-based model averaging (AICMA) (Poeter and Anderson 2005). These different techniques can often lead to significantly different relative model weights and ranks because of differences in the underlying statistical assumptions about the nature of model uncertainty. This paper provides a comparative assessment of the four model averaging techniques (GLUE, MLBMA with KIC, MLBMA with BIC, and AIC-based model averaging) mentioned above for the purpose of quantifying the impacts of model uncertainty on groundwater model predictions. Pros and cons of each model averaging technique are examined from a practitioner's perspective using two groundwater modeling case studies. Recommendations are provided regarding the use of these techniques in groundwater modeling practice.     

Geochronology and Genesis of the Tiegelongnan Porphyry Cu(Au) Deposit in Tibet: Evidence from U–Pb,Re–Os Dating and Hf,S, and H–O Isotopes

The Tiegelongnan Cu (Au) deposit is the largest copper deposit newly discovered in the Bangong–Nujiang metallogenic belt. The deposit has a clear alteration zoning consisting of, from core to margin, potassic to propylitic, superimposed by phyllic and advanced argillic alteration. The shallow part of the deposit consists of a high sulphidation‐state overprint, mainly comprising disseminated pyrite and Cu–S minerals such as bornite, covellite, digenite, and enargite. At depth porphyry‐type mineralization mainly comprises disseminated chalcopyrite, bornite, pyrite, and a minor vein molybdenite. Mineralization is disseminated and associated with veins contained within the porphyry intrusions and their surrounding rocks. The zircon U–Pb ages of the mineralized diorite porphyry and granodiorite porphyry are 123.1 ± 1.7 Ma (2σ) and 121.5 ± 1.5 Ma (2σ), respectively. The molybdenite Re–Os age is 121.2 ± 1.2 Ma, suggesting that mineralization was closely associated with magmatism. Andesite lava (zircon U–Pb age of 111.7 ± 1.6 Ma, 2σ) overlies the ore‐bodies and is the product of post‐mineralization volcanic activity that played a critical role in preserving the ore‐bodies. Values of ?4.6 ‰ to + 0.8 ‰ δ³⁴S for the metal sulfides (mean ? 1.55 ‰) suggest that S mainly has a deep magmatic source. The H and O isotopic composition is (δD = ?87 ‰ to ?64 ‰; δ¹⁸O_H2O = 5.5 ‰ to 9.0 ‰), indicating that the ore‐forming fluids are mostly magmatic‐hydrothermal, possibly mixed with a small amount of meteoric water. The zircon ε_Hf(t) of the diorite porphyry is 3.7 to 8.3, and the granodiorite porphyry is 1.8 to 7.5. Molybdenite has a high Re from 382.2 × 10^?6 to 1600 × 10^?6. Re and Hf isotope composition show that Tiegelongnan has some mantle source, maybe the juvenile lower crust from crust–mantle mixed source. Metallogenesis of the Tiegelongnan giant porphyry system was associated with intermediate to acidic magma in the Early Cretaceous (~120 Ma). The magma provenance of the Tiegelongnan deposit has some mantle‐derived composition, possibly mixed with the crust‐derived materials.     

B2114+022: a distant radio source gravitationally lensed by a starburst galaxy

We have discovered a radio source (B2114+022) with a unique structure during the course of the JVAS gravitational lens survey. VLA, MERLIN, VLBA and MERLIN+EVN radio maps reveal four compact components, in a configuration unlike that of any known lens system, or, for that matter, any of the ∼15 000 radio sources in the JVAS and CLASS surveys. Three of the components are within 0.3 arcsec of each other while the fourth is separated from the group by 2.4 arcsec. The widest separation pair of components have similar radio structures and spectra. The other pair also have similar properties. This latter pair have spectra which peak at ∼5 GHz. Their surface brightnesses are much lower than expected for synchrotron self-absorbed components.
Ground-based and Hubble Space Telescope optical observations show two galaxies ( z =0.3157 and 0.5883) separated by 1.25 arcsec. The lower redshift galaxy has a post-starburst spectrum and lies close to, but not coincident with, the compact group of three radio components. No optical or infrared emission is detected from any of the radio components down to I =25 and H =23 . We argue that the most likely explanation of the B2114+022 system is that the post-starburst galaxy, assisted by the second galaxy, lenses a distant radio source producing the two wide-separation images. The other two radio components are then associated with the post-starburst galaxy. The combination of the angular sizes of these components, their radio spectra and their location with respect to their host galaxy still remains puzzling.     

From Classical To Statistical Ocean Dynamics

Traditional ocean modeling treats fields resolved on the model grid according to the classical dynamics of continua. Variability on smaller scales is included through sundry eddy viscosities, mixing coefficients and other schemes. In this paper we develop an alternative approach based on statistical dynamics. First, we recognize that we treat probabilities of flows, not the flows themselves. Modeled dependent variables are the moments (expectations) of the probabilities of possible flows. Second, we address the challenge to obtain the equations of motion for the moments of probable flows rather than the (traditional) equations for explicit flows. For linear terms and on larger resolved scales, the statistical equations agree with classical dynamics where those of traditional modeling works well. Differences arise where traditional modeling would relegate unresolved motion to eddy viscosity, etc.. Instead, changes of entropy (<-log P> over the probability distribution of possible flows) with respect to the modeled moments act as forcings upon those moments. In this way we obtain a consistent framework for specifying the terms which, traditionally, represent subgridscale effects. Although these statistical equations are close to the classical equations in many ways, important differences are also evident; here, two phenomena are described where the results differ. We consider eddies interacting with bottom topography. It is seen that traditional eddy viscosity and/or topographic drag, which would reduce large scale flows toward rest, are wrong. The second law of thermodynamics is violated; the arrow of time is running backwards! From statistical dynamics, approximate corrections are obtained, yielding a practical improvement to the fidelity of ocean models. Another phenomenon occurs at much smaller scales in the turbulent mixing of heat and salt. Even when both heat and salt are stably stratifying, their rates of turbulent transfer should differ. This suggests a further model improvement.