Regional landslide risk to the Cairns community

A GIS-based regional reconnaissance-level assessment of landslide risk to the Cairns community has been carried out to provide information to the Cairns City Council for planning and emergency management purposes. Magnitude recurrence relations were tentatively established for the two main slope processes: landslides on the hill slopes; and large debris flows extending out from the gully systems on to the plains. From the recurrence relations, landslide hazard (H) was estimated as the annual probability of a point being impacted by a landslide. The nature, number (E) and geographic distribution of the elements at risk were obtained by interrogating the GIS, and their vulnerabilities (V) to destruction by the two main landslide slope processes were assessed. From this information, specific risk (= H × V) and total risk (= H × V× E) maps were produced.Although total landslide risk is relatively low at present, it will increase as development extends further into the hill slopes, unless adequate mitigation measures are taken. Large debris flows, while considerably less frequent than landslides on cut slopes, could impact on subdivisions at the base of the slopes. Blockage by landslides of roads and railways providing access to Cairns can cause isolation of the community. Flash flooding in Freshwater Creek, or debris flows, have the potential to disrupt the Cairns water supply by blocking the intake or destroying sections of the pipeline.     

The impact of a severe drought on the vegetation of a subtropical estuary

In order to document the effect of the recent drought and the resulting marine intrusion event on plant-community shifts in a Louisiana estuary, we analyzed two vegetation data sets collected in Barataria estuary in 1997 and 2000 and compared community shifts to surface salinity changes at four points along the estuarine gradient within the study area. We used the major vegetation types identified in our previous research of larger data sets and tested the use of a simple vegetation classification technique. This vegetation classification technique is based primarily on the dominant and co-dominant species, and secondarily on the number of taxa observed. To distinguish vegetation types with similar dominant species but different associated species, the vegetation classification technique used a salinity score derived from the species composition. Surface water salinity increases were reflected by a change in species composition in the mesohaline to fresh marshes. The largest species composition shift observed was the shift from oligohaline wiregrass (species rich vegetation type dominated bySpartina patens) to mesohaline wiregrass (vegetation type dominated byS. patens with few other species). Shifts in vegetation composition may have been enhanced by the presence of the major dominant species at a low abundance in other vegetation types. The vegetation classification technique used could classify over 95% of the stations. This vegetation classification technique provides a simple method to classify Louisiana's coastal vegetation based on plant species composition.     

Fault zone evolution and its controls on ore-grade distribution at the Jian Cha Ling gold deposit, western Qinling region, central China

The Jian Cha Ling gold deposit is sited in folded and faulted Palaeoproterozoic rocks of the uplifted Mian-Lue-Yang block, adjacent to the Mianlue suture zone within the West Qinling mineral province, along the northern margin of the South China craton. Early Mesozoic gold mineralization at Jian Cha Ling, which has a pre-mined resource of about 536,000 oz Au, is controlled by the so-called F ₁ ⁴⁵ fault. The fault is a generally steeply N-dipping, WNW-trending deformation zone that is the result of dislocation along bedding planes, early foliation and axial planar surfaces of regional folds. The fault zone marks the contact between serpentinized, lower greenschist-facies dunites, harzburgites and minor gabbroic units in the footwall, and a metasedimentary sequence in the hanging wall that is dominated by metadolomite, metalimestone and phyllitic schists. Brittle–ductile deformation, partitioning of strain along pre-existing zones of weakness, and the formation of intrashear zone lozenges contributed to the development of a complex fault zone geometry. Variations in both dip and strike of discrete dislocation surfaces related to oblique, sinistral–reverse movement along the F ₁ ⁴⁵ fault zone focussed auriferous hydrothermal fluids along three dominant structural orientations. Gold was preferentially deposited along shallowly NNE-dipping and shallowly to moderately NNW-dipping fault segments, and is also associated with shallowly WSW-dipping, dolomite-dominated vein sets. Disseminated, economic gold grades (>4 g/t Au) are restricted to the footwall ultramafic rocks to within about 5 to 10 m of the contact with the hanging wall. Gold is related to laminated, realgar- and orpiment- bearing sheeted veins and hydrothermal breccias, as well as slickolites and fault gouge. Gold-bearing vein sets are located within the relatively undeformed, ultramafic intrashear zone lozenges. Gold-related alteration is dominated by extremely fine-grained, arsenic-bearing sulphide minerals and dolomite, with additional white mica and clay minerals. The structural setting of the deposit, combined with published data on the geological evolution of the West Qinling mineral province, suggest that the Jian Cha Ling gold deposit developed in an uplifted basement block during the final phases of northward subduction and suturing of the South China craton with the South Qinling orogen along the Mianlue Suture Zone, during the changeover from a compressional to transpressional tectonic regime in Late Triassic to Middle Jurassic times.     

Hurricane 07B in the Godavari Delta, Andhra Pradesh, India: vulnerability, mitigation and the spatial impact

Few hurricane impact studies provide robust spatial parameters of damage or relate geographical patterns of destruction accurately to storm trajectories or agencies. A detailed spatial analysis is, therefore, presented of the destruction caused by tropical hurricane 07B which made landfall on 6/7 November 1996 over the Godavari Delta region, Andhra Pradesh, eastern India. Patterns of destruction by storm surge, wind and flood water are quantitatively mapped for death tolls, house destruction and agricultural damage using local administrative ( mandal ) data bases. Results show that most impact occurred near the coast, but a well-defined path of destruction across the central part of the delta can be identified. Such mapping studies fail to indicate the types of individuals and social groups most affected by the storm hazard and their response to it. An investigation of landowning farmers, female migrant rural labourers and fishing communities in the delta shows that poverty and social ordering in Indian society puts differential limits on the risk reduction abilities of individuals and social groups in the face of the cyclone hazard. The paper also demonstrates that 'top down' institutional measures to reduce the effects of storm damage such as those introduced in the aftermath of hurricane 07B, including early storm warning and evacuation procedures and rehabilitation programmes, remain largely ineffective. It is suggested that the introduction of more 'bottom up' community-based programmes which seek to improve the risk awareness and risk avoiding abilities of affected individuals and groups would be much more beneficial. The case material on hurricane 07B and its effects are placed in context by reviewing and updating long and medium-term time series records of storm frequencies and impacts in the Bay of Bengal and particularly along the eastern coastline of India.     

Unexpected hydrologic perturbation in an abandoned underground coal mine: Response to surface reclamation?

A reclamation project at the abandoned Blackhawk Mine site near Terre Haute, Indiana, lasted about four months and involved the burial of coarse mine refuse in shallow (less than 9 m) pits excavated into loess and till in an area of about 16 ha. An abandoned flooded underground coal mine underlies the reclamation site at a depth of about 38 m; the total area underlain by the mine is about 10 km². The potentiometric levels associated with the mine indicate a significant (2.7 m) and prolonged perturbation of the deeper confined groundwater system; 14 months after completing reclamation, the levels began to rise linearly (at an average rate of 0.85 cm/d) for 11 months, then fell exponentially for 25 months, and are now nearly stable. Prominent subsidence features exist near the reclamation site. Subsidence-related fractures were observed in cores from the site, and such fractures may have provided a connection between the shallower and deeper groundwater systems.     

A GLOBAL VIEW OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCIES

The relationship between tropical cyclone activity and ENSO is examined for the major cyclone regions using crosscorrelations,spectral analysis and composite analysis of eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature,thenormalised monthly Southern Oscillation Index(SOI),and tropical cyclone frequencies.The closest relationship betweenthe 3—4 year ENSO period and tropical cyclone activity was found in the western North Pacific west of 160°E and thereseems to be significant potential for seasonal forecasting in this region based on ENSO parameters alone.No significantrelationships were found for the North Indian Ocean,and the remainder of the basins were dominated by oscillationsnear the quasi-biennial period.Physical explanations and forecasting of the seasonal variations in tropical cyclone num-bers in these regions will need to account for the QBO as well as the 3—4 year ENSO connections.     

On the geodynamic setting of kimberlite genesis

The emplacement of kimberlites in the North American and African continents since the early Palaeozoic appears to have occurred during periods of relatively slow motion of these continents. The distribution of kimberlites in time may reflect the global pattern of convection, which forces individual plates to move faster or slower at different times. Two-dimensional numerical experiments on a convecting layer with a moving upper boundary show two different regimes: in the first, when the upper boundary velocity is high, heat is transferred by the large-scale circulation and in the second, when the upper boundary velocity is lower, heat is predominantly transferred by thermal plumes rising from the lower boundary layer. For a reasonable mantle solidus, this second regime can give rise to partial melting beneath the moving plate, far from the plate boundaries. The transition between these modes takes place over a small range of plate velocities; for a Rayleigh number of 10⁶ it occurs around 20 mm yr^?1. We suggest that the generation of kimberlite magmas may result from thermal plumes incident on the base of a slowly moving plate.     

Basal layered deposits of the Peach Springs Tuff,northwestern Arizona,USA

Basal layered deposits of the large-volume Peach Springs Tuff occur beneath the main pyroclastic flow deposit over a minimum lateral distance of 70 km in northwestern Arizona (USA). The basal deposits are interpreted to record initial blasting and pyroclastic surge events at the beginning of the eruption; the pyroclastic surges traveled a minimum of 100 km from the (as yet unknown) source. Changes in bedding structures with increasing flow distance are related to the decreasing sediment load of the surges. Some bed forms in the most proximal part of the study area (Kingman, Arizona) can be interpreted as being shock induced, reflecting a blast origin for the surges. Component analyses support a hydrovolcanic origin for some of the blasting and subsequent pyroclastic surges. The eruption apparently began with magmatic blasts, which were replaced by hydrovolcanic blasts. Hydrovolcanic activity may be partially related to failure of the conduit walls that temporarily plugged the vent. A single large-volume pyroclastic flow immediately followed the blast phase, and no evidence has been observed for a Plinian eruption column. The stratigraphic sequence indicates that powerful hydrovolcanic blasting rapidly widened the vent, thus bypassing a Plinian fallout phase and causing rapid evolution to a collapsing eruption column. Similar processes may occur in other large-volume ignimbrite eruptions, which commonly lack significant Plinian fallout deposits.