Exploring the extent to which fluctuations in ice-rafted debris reflect mass changes in the source ice sheet: a model–observation comparison using the last British–Irish Ice Sheet

The British and Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) was highly dynamic during the Late Quaternary, with considerable regional differences in the timing and extent of its change. This was reflected in equally variable offshore ice-rafted debris (IRD) records. Here we reconcile these two records using the FRUGAL intermediate complexity iceberg–climate model, with varying BIIS catchment-level iceberg fluxes, to simulate change in IRD origin and magnitude along the western European margin at 1000-year time steps during the height of the last BIIS glaciation (31–6 ka bp ). This modelled IRD variability is compared with existing IRD records from the deep ocean at five cores along this margin. There is general agreement of the temporal and spatial IRD variability between observations and model through this period. The Porcupine Bank off northwestern Ireland was confirmed by the modelling as a major dividing line between sites possessing exclusively northern or southern source regions for offshore IRD. During Heinrich events 1 and 2, the cores show evidence of a proportion of North American IRD, more particularly to the south of the British Isles. Modelling supports this southern bias for likely Heinrich impact, but also suggests North American IRD will only reach the British margin in unusual circumstances.     

A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

This conceptual model of avalanche hazard identifies the key components of avalanche hazard and structures them into a systematic, consistent workflow for hazard and risk assessments. The method is applicable to all types of avalanche forecasting operations, and the underlying principles can be applied at any scale in space or time. The concept of an avalanche problem is introduced, describing how different types of avalanche problems directly influence the assessment and management of the risk. Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature. We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and then described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines.     

Iron in plagioclase in the Bushveld and Skaergaard intrusions: implications for iron contents in evolving basic magmas

The evolved, iron-rich rocks of the tholeiitic Bushveld and Skaergaard intrusions are similar in containing cumulus magnetite, ilmenite, plagioclase, clinopyroxene, apatite and olivine, and also orthopyroxenes/pigeonite in Bushveld. Here, we evaluate their liquid evolution trends using the total iron content in plagioclase determined by electron microprobe analyses. To aid this analysis a revised mass balance model for the liquid evolution of Skaergaard is presented. For plagioclase in the Upper Zone of Skaergaard it was previously demonstrated that total FeO increases from ~0.25 to ~0.45 wt% with differentiation and correlates inversely with An% [100 × Ca/(Na + Ca)]. The reverse trend is observed in two recently published datasets for Bushveld, showing that total FeO in plagioclase decreases upward through the magnetite-bearing Upper Zone from ~0.30 to ~0.15% and from ~0.40 to ~0.25% in the western and northern limbs, respectively, and correlates positively with An%. The partition coefficient of total iron between plagioclase and magma increases with oxidation and polymerisation in the liquid. Although Bushveld formed under slightly more oxidizing conditions than Skaergaard, differences in the partition coefficients cannot explain the two observed trends. We therefore conclude that the differentiation trends of the liquids subsequent to magnetite saturation were fundamentally different. The inferred liquid composition for Bushveld contained about 15 wt% total FeO at the level of magnetite-in, which is slightly less than the total FeO content of the subsequent cumulates. In contrast, the Skaergaard liquid contained more total FeO than the ensuing cumulates. As a result, in Bushveld residual liquids total FeO decreased after magnetite saturation, whereas in Skaergaard the residual liquids continued to become enriched in iron. This conclusion is corroborated by simple mass balance calculations between modelled residual liquids and extracted cumulate rocks. Despite the mineralogical similarities of evolved iron-rich rocks of Skaergaard and Bushveld, their liquid evolution trends were very different, and generalizations about the extent of iron enrichment in tholeiitic magmas should be avoided.     

Appropriate aspirations for effective post-mining restoration and rehabilitation: a response to Kaźmierczak et al.

Confusion surrounding the definition and application of terminology in post-mining ecological repair has resulted in uncertainty for industry, the scientific community and regulators. This lack of clarity may underrepresent high aspirations or could be misused to disguise low aspirations and so is problematic for setting objectives, establishing goals and assessing recovery trajectories. We respond to a recently published analysis of the ecosystem repair literature, where we highlight inconsistencies stemming from inadequate reference to a large proportion of the restoration and rehabilitation literature. We outline increasingly well-accepted and internationally applied definitions concerning the restoration and recovery process and invite both the mining industry and policy-makers to re-examine their terminology in the interests of attaining an internationally agreed nomenclature. Clarity in the use and understanding of terminology will align post-mining targets with community expectation, enhance the capacity of the mining industry to understand and meet these targets, and foster better analysis and more industry-relevant discussion of recovery methodologies by the scientific community and practitioners.     

A comparison of usefulness of 2D and 3D representations of urban planning

Very little existing literature has addressed the issues of the perceived usefulness of 3D visualizations over 2D and the use of cartographic shadow representations in the planning community. Urban planning has moved toward a 3D, geographic-information-system-centric, and functional decision support framework. This study aims to examine the preferences of urban planning professionals with respect to 2D and 3D visualizations in a case study. The authors built a 3D representation of a proposed building along with the existing urban environment in Queenstown, New Zealand and conducted a usefulness test through a survey and interview. Based on the survey, the study evaluated the degree of task utility perceived in each visualization method, the effect on the mental image, and shadow representation preferences. The findings support the literature that the benefits of using a 2D or 3D model are closely related to the types of planning tasks undertaken. The findings also reveal a complex view of planning activities, suggesting that planners themselves cannot be treated as a single group for research purposes.     

Thermal treatment as a method to control transfers of invasive biofouling species via vessel sea chests

This study examined the efficacy of heated seawater for the treatment and remediation of fouled vessel sea chest habitats. In laboratory trials, three temperature regimes (37.5°C for 60 min, 40°C for 30min and 42.5°C for 20 min) were tested on a range of temperate taxa commonly found in sea chests. Field validation trials further assessed the efficacy of heat treatment within a replica sea chest environment. During laboratory trials, 100% mortality was achieved across all three treatments for the majority of taxa; the exceptions being the barnacle Elminius modestus and the oyster Crassostrea gigas. Temperature tolerance limits observed in the laboratory were successfully replicated under simulated sea chest conditions; however, a failure to achieve even heat distribution was an obstacle to achieving uniform mortality. This study provides guidance on the temperature/exposure parameters required for vessels plying temperate latitudes, and demonstrates that heated seawater has potential for controlling biofouling in vessel sea chests.     

Stable isotope evidence for nutritional stress,competition, and loss of functional habitat as factors limiting recovery of rare antelope in southern Africa

A major focus in population ecology is understanding factors that limit rare species. We used stable isotope approaches to diet to determine whether remaining rare antelope populations in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa experience i) nutritional stress; ii) competition with sympatric bulk grazers; iii) reduced habitat heterogeneity. Rare species consumed near-pure C₄ grass-based diets throughout the seasonal cycle, in contrast to field observations that reported significant levels of C₃ consumption (browse) by these taxa. This finding, coupled with low faecal %N at the height of the dry season, may indicate nutritional stress, but recent isotopic studies of the same species elsewhere in Africa suggest that field observations overestimated levels of browse consumption. We find little evidence for diet niche overlap between rare antelope with bulk grazing species. This partitioning of resources (interpreted mainly as tall- versus short-grass grazing, respectively), is consistent with reported differences in observed diet, and comparative oral morphology. Last, we find less seasonal diet variations amongst bulk grazers feeding in rare antelope habitats compared with other landscapes. We propose that loss of functional heterogeneity, apparently brought about by high densities of artificial waterholes, limits recovery of diet- and habitat-selective rare antelope populations in KNP.     

Effectiveness of subsurface pressure monitoring for brine leakage detection in an uncertain CO2 sequestration system

This work evaluates the detection sensitivity of deep subsurface pressure monitoring within an uncertain carbon dioxide sequestration system by linking the output of an analytical reduced-order model and first-order uncertainty analysis. A baseline (non-leaky) modeling run was compared against 10 different leakage scenarios, where the cap rock permeability was increased by factors of 2–100 (cap rock permeability from 10^?3 to 10^?1 millidarcy). The uncertainty variance outputs were used to develop percentile estimates and detection sensitivity for pressure throughout the deep subsurface as a function of space (lateral distance from the injection wells and vertical orientation within the reservoir) and time (years since injection), or P(x, z, t). Conditional probabilities were computed for combinations of x, z, and t, which were then used to generate power curves for detecting leakage scenarios. The results suggest that measurements of the absolute change in pressure within the target injection aquifer would not be able to distinguish small leakage rates (i.e., less than 50 × baseline) from baseline conditions, and that only large leakage rates (i.e., >100 × baseline) would be discriminated with sufficient statistical power (>99 %). Combining measurements, for example by taking the ratio of formation pressure in Aquifer 2/Aquifer 1, provides better statistical power for distinguishing smaller leakage rates at earlier times in the injection program. Detection sensitivity for pressure is a function of space and time. Therefore, design of an adequate monitoring network for subsurface pressure should account for this space–time variability to ensure that the monitoring system performs to the necessary design criteria, e.g., specific false-negative and false-positive rates.     

Modeling incompatible trace-element abundances in plagioclase in the Skaergaard intrusion using the trapped liquid shift effect

Incompatible trace-element abundances in minerals and whole rocks from layered intrusions have been used to model the fractionation processes and evolving liquid compositions. Many such models assume that the analyzed concentration in a mineral represents that of the mineral when it first crystallized. However, overgrowth from residual liquid and subsequent diffusive equilibration can result in significant changes to the bulk mineral compositions (the more incompatible the element the more dramatic the subsequent changes). The proportion of that residual liquid relative to the cumulus minerals is the most important parameter in determining the magnitude of this effect (trapped liquid shift effect). Calculations involving Ba and La contents in plagioclase quantitatively demonstrate this effect. For Ba and La (partition coefficients of 0.4 and 0.04), 50% trapped liquid in a sample can result in two and sevenfold increases, respectively, in concentration between original and final bulk mineral compositions. Different cumulus assemblages also have a major effect on final compositions. We use examples of the concentrations of Ba and La in plagioclase from the Skaergaard intrusion from previous publications to illustrate the importance of this effect. Specifically, the La content of bulk plagioclase steadily decreases upward from the Lower Zone to Upper Zone c, and Ba in plagioclase shows no increase from the Lower Zone to the top of the Middle Zone. Such results are not explicable by fractionation processes, but can be modeled by the trapped liquid shift effect, assuming the well-established evidence for upward decrease in trapped liquid proportion through these zones.