Parametric-historic Procedure for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Part I: Estimation of Maximum Regional Magnitude mmax

—A new methodology for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is described. The approach combines the best features of the "deductive" (Cornell, 1968) and "historical" (Veneziano et al., 1984) procedures. It can be called a "parametric-historic" procedure.¶The maximum regional magnitude m _max is of paramount importance in this approach and Part I of our work presents some of the statistical techniques which can be used for its evaluation. The work is an analysis of parametric procedures for the evaluation of m _max, when the form of the magnitude distribution is specified. For each of the formulae given there are notes on its origin, assumptions made of its derivation, and some comparisons. The statistical concepts of bias and variance are considered for each formula, and appropriate expressions for these are also given. Also, following Knopoff and Kagan (1977), we shall demonstrate why there must be a finite upper bound to the largest seismic event if the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation is accepted.     

Timescales and mechanisms of fluid infiltration in a marble: an ion microprobe study

Using a recently developed ion microprobe technique, a detailed oxygen isotope map of calcite grains in a coarse-grained marble has been constructed, supported by trace element (Mn, Sr, Fe) analysis and cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging, in order to constrain scales of oxygen isotope equilibrium, timescales and mechanisms of metamorphic fluid infiltration, and fluid sources and pathways. Results are compared with a previous study of this sample (Wada 1988) carried out using a cryo-microtome technique and conventional oxygen isotope analysis. The marble, from the high temperature/low pressure Hida metamorphic belt in north-central Japan, underwent granulite facies followed by amphibolite facies metamorphic events, the latter associated with regional granite intrusion. The CL imaging indicates two types of calcite, a yellow luminescing (YLC) and a purple luminescing (PLC) variety. The YLC, which occupies grain boundaries, fractures, replacement patches, and most of the abundant deformation twin lamellae, post-dates the dominant PLC calcite and maps out fluid pathways. Systematic relationships were established between oxygen isotope and trace element composition, calcite type and texture, based on 74 ¹⁸O/¹⁶O and 17 trace element analyses with 20–30 μ m spatial resolution. The YLC is enriched in Mn and Fe, and depleted in ¹⁸O and Sr compared to PLC, and is much more ¹⁸O depleted than is indicated from conventional analyses. Results are interpreted to indicate infiltration of ¹⁸O-depleted (metamorphic or magmatic) fluid (initial δ¹⁸O = 9‰–10.5‰) along grain boundaries, fractures and deformation twin lamellae, depleting calcite grains in Sr and enriching them in Mn and Fe. The sample is characterised by gross isotopic and elemental disequilibrium, with important implications for the application of chromatographic theory to constrain fluid fluxes in metacarbonate rocks. Areas of PLC unaffected by “short-circuiting” fluid pathways contain oxygen diffusion profiles of ∼10‰/∼200 μm in grain boundary regions or adjacent to fractures/patches. When correction is made for estimated grain boundary/fracture and profile orientation in 3D, profiles are indistinguishable within error. Modelling of these profiles gives consistent estimates of Dt (where D is the diffusion coefficient and t is time) of ∼0.8 × 10⁻⁸ m², from which, using experimental data for oxygen diffusion in calcite, timescales of fluid transport along grain boundaries at amphibolite facies temperatures of ∼10³ to ∼10⁴ years are obtained. These short timescales, which are much shorter than plausible durations of metamorphism, imply that rock permeabilities may be transiently much higher during fluid flow than those calculated from time integrated fluid fluxes or predicted from laboratory measurements. The preservation of ¹⁸O/¹⁶O profiles requires either rapid cooling rates (∼100–600 °C/million years), or, more plausibly, loss of grain boundary fluid such that a dry cooling history followed the transient passage of fluid. The δ¹⁸O/trace element correlations are also consistent with volume diffusion-controlled transport in the PLC. Fluid transport and element exchange occurred by two inter-related mechanisms on short timescales and on different lengthscales – long-distance flow along cracks, grain boundaries and twin lamellae coupled to ∼200 μm-scale volume diffusion of oxygen. Received: 8 December 1997 / Accepted: 18 May 1998     

The pressure and temperature dependence of the elastic properties of single-crystal fayalite Fe2SiO4

The nine adiabatic elastic stiffness constants of synthetic single-crystal fayalite, Fe₂SiO₄, were measured as functions of pressure (range, 0 to 1.0 GPa) and temperature (range, 0 to 40° C) using the pulse superposition ultrasonic method. Summary calculated results for a dense fayalite polycrystalline aggregate, based on the HS average of our single-crystal data, are as follows: V_p = 6.67 km/s; V_s = 3.39km/s; K= 127.9 GPa; μ = 50.3 GPa; (?K/?P)_T = 5.2; (?μ/?P)_T=1.5;(?K/?T)_P= ?0.030 GPa/K;and,(?/?T)_P =-0.013 GPa/K (the pressure and temperature data are referred to 25° C and 1 atm, respectively). Accuracy of the single-crystal results was maintained by numerous cross and redundancy checks. Compared to the single-crystal elastic properties of forsterite, Mg₂SiO₄, the fayalite stiffness constants, as well as their pressure derivatives, are lower for each of the on-diagonal (C _ij for which i=j) values, and generally higher for the off-diagonal (C _ij for which i≠j) data. As a result, the bulk moduli (K) and dK/dP for forsterite and fayalite are very similar, but the rigidity modulus (μ) and dμ/dP for polycrystalline fayalite are much lower than their forsterite counterparts. The bulk compression properties derived from this study are very consistent with the static-compression x-ray results of Yagi et al. (1975). The temperature dependence of the bulk modulus of fayalite is somewhat greater (in a negative sense) than that of forsterite. The rigidity dependencies are almost equivalent. Over the temperature range relevant to this study, the elastic property results are generally consistent with the data of Sumino (1978), which were obtained using the RPR technique. However, some of the compressional modes are clearly discrepant. The elastic constants of fayalite appear to be less consistent with a theoretical HCP model (Leibfried 1955) than forsterite, reflecting the more covalent character of the Fe-O bonding in the former.     

CONSIDERATIONS OF SPECIFICATIONS FOR SMALL FORMAT AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHY

Following the success of the symposium held by the Photogrammetric Society on 31st March, 1987, a second one-day symposium was convened to give further support to the rapidly growing interest in the development of small format photography for aerial survey. This was held at Burlington House, London on 1st November, 1988. Over 70 people attended. Six of the papers are reproduced here, dealing with a range of topics including specifications for and navigation of small format aerial photography, the creation of digital terrain models from 35 mm photography, wildlife surveys in the Arctic and survey photography from model aircraft and tethered balloons.     

An experimental study of the diffusion of oxygen in quartz and albite using an overgrowth technique

Diffusion rates of¹⁸O tracer in quartz ( c, 1 Kb H₂O) and Amelia albite ( 001, 2 Kb H₂O) have been measured, using Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS). A new technique involving hydrothermal deposition of labelled materials has removed the possibility of pressure solution-reprecipitation processes adversely affecting the experiments. Reported diffusion constants are:-quartz ( c), ,Q=98±7 KJ mol^–1 (600–825° C, 1 Kb); Amelia albite ( 001), ,Q=85±7 KJ mol^–1, (400–600° C, 2 Kb). Measured quartz¹⁸O diffusivities decrease discontinuously at the- transition, reflecting strong structural influences. The reported albite data agree with previously recorded studies, but-quartz data indicate significantly lower activation energies. Possible causes of this discrepancy, and some geological consequences, are noted.     

Mössbauer study of a California desert celadonite and its pedogenically-related smectite

Celadonite from the northwestern Mojave Desert area of California was examined by detailed Mössbauer spectroscopy at temperatures from 10 K to 400 K. In addition to the predominant Fe³⁺ doublet with isomer shift 0.4 mm s^–1 and quadrupole splitting 0.4 mm s^–1, another Fe³⁺ doublet with 0.4, 1.2 mm/s and two Fe²⁺ doublets with 1.1, 1.7, 2.7 mm s^–1 at 300 K were distinguished. The minor Fe³⁺ component is ascribed to dehydroxylated surface sites. Most of the remaining Fe(90%) is M2 cis-OH octahedral in an ordered M⁺–M²⁺ array. However, about 10% is M1 trans-OH Fe²⁺. Isomer shift vs. T gives Debye temperatures of 570 K for Fe³⁺ in M2 and 380 K for both Fe²⁺ sites, indicating greater vibrational freedom for Fe²⁺. Quadrupole splitting vs. T for Fe²⁺ gives a valence electronic energy splitting of 760 cm^–1 between the ground and first excited state for M2. The M1 sites have a more drastic variation in vs. T which indicates not only a lower first excited state but a rhombic distortion at these sites. A proposed explanation is a neighboring M2 site vacancy. The soil clay formed from this celadonite, which is mostly Fe-rich smectite, was also studied by Mössbauer spectroscopy. About half the Fe²⁺ has been oxidized in the clay, but the isomer shifts and quadrupole splittings are essentially the same as in the original celadonite. A texture orientation in the clay absorber was detected by measuring the absorber at 55° to the source radiation. This texture effect produces asymmetric doublets in the usual 90° measurement.     

Thrust tectonics in the south central pyrenees

Surface structural data and published stratigraphies are combined to construct two balanced and restored sections through the Nogueras Zone of the south central Pyrenees. The allochthonous Nogueras Zone units are interpreted as the foreland-dipping margin of a major antiformal stack in the Palaeozoic rocks of the Pyrenean Axial Zone. Their structural evolution is summarized in a hangingwall sequence diagram. This reinterpretation of the Nogueras Zone is incorporated into a new NS balanced and restored section from the centre of the Pyrenean Axial Zone to the Ebro Basin. A classical ‘Rocky Mountains’ piggy-back thrust model is employed and the resulting section is a significant departure from those previously published. It is argued that ‘gravity gliding’ has never been an important mechanism in the Alpine Pyrenees. Section restoration casts doubt on the correlation of the surface expression of the North Pyrenean Fault and the seismically detected Moho step beneath it.     

Constraints and Categories of Vadose Zone Monitoring Devices

Traditional monitoring methods using chemical analysis of ground water samples to detect pollutant migration are being superseded or used in conjunction with innovative approaches. A need to detect pollutants before they reach the water table has drawn interest to vadose (unsaturated) zone monitoring and brought together hydrogeologists, soil scientists and agricultural engineers who have been working on this subject for years.
Recent studies have identified over 50 different types of vadose zone monitoring devices and methods that have optimum utility in varying hydrogeologic settings. In general, measurements made in the vadose zone are trying to define storage, transmission of liquid waste in terms of flux and velocity, and pollutant mobility.
Criteria for the selection of alternative vadose zone monitoring methods are important for the development of site-specific systems. These criteria include: type of site; applicability to new, active, and abandoned sites; power requirements; depth limitations; multiple use capability; type of data collection system; reliability and life expectancy; degree of operational complexity; direct versus indirect methods; applicability to alternate media; effect on flow regime; and effect of hazardous waste on sampling or measurements. Application of the selection criteria is discussed in Everett et al. (1982a).     

Gossan profiles developed above stratabound sulphide mineralization

Gossan formation is the product of complex interactions of weathering history, present climate, geomorphology, type of mineralization and nature of host rocks. The resultant structure, texture, mineralogy and geochemistry of surface gossans differ markedly even within the one outcrop. Extensive research since 1970 has delineated techniques for evaluating gossans related to nickel mineralization in the Yilgarn Block of Western Australia using these properties. Until recently, similar techniques were not well developed for the search for copper, lead and zinc mineralization.     

Public participation in policy making: the state-of-the-art in Canada

This paper critically reviews the current status of public participation in Canada. Postulating that public participation implies an open, democratic form of planning and policy making, the paper examines factors which have influenced the attainment of meaningful public input in practice. Public participation in Canada has evolved greatly in the past 15 years but several key issues remain unresolved: provisions for participation remain, in large part, discretionary; procedures for the funding of intervenors require further development; and the emphasis in many jurisdictions remains upon the operational level involvement of the lay public, with a public hearing as the final arbiter of public opinion. More attention to the formal evaluation of participatory exercises is essential to the resolution of these concerns. In particular, more attention should be given to the context within which participation occurs. Moreover, greater consideration should be given to public involvement at the normative and strategic levels of planning. The paper concludes by briefly exploring the implications for practice that the concept of ‘normative participation’ might have in Canada.