Climate change outlook for water resources management in a semiarid river basin: the effect of the environmental water demand

Iran is a developing country with arid and semiarid regions. Poor management of water resources combined with the effects of climate change is leading to the drying of several rivers and wetlands. Several planned water development projects, primarily for agricultural expansion, will be implemented in the coming years which could worsen impacts on vulnerable aquatic ecosystems. Proper water resources management is essential to meet present and future residential, environmental, industrial, and agricultural demands in semiarid regions. This paper presents projections of how the availability of water resources will change in the Karkheh river basin of Iran for the period 2010–2059 employing sustainability criteria in the form of time-based reliability, volumetric reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability. This paper’s results show that consideration of environmental receptors as a stakeholder of water use places limitations on agricultural development within the Karkheh river basin.     

Since turtles cannot talk: what beak movement sensors can tell us about the feeding ecology of neritic loggerhead turtles,Caretta caretta

Understanding the role that consumers play in an ecosystem requires knowledge about food selection and intake rates. However, such basic data are often difficult to obtain, particularly for marine animals that are not easy to observe. To overcome this problem, a beak movement sensor was employed on a free‐ranging loggerhead turtle in a neritic foraging habitat at the Domitian littoral (SW Italy). In combination with gastrointestinal content analysis from six turtles found dead in the same area we sought to identify which beak movement patterns were associated with which prey type, and to quantify the ingestion of the various prey types. Brachyuran crabs (100% occurrence), in particular Liocarcinus vernalis, and small molluscs (66% occurrence) were found most frequently in the stomach and intestine of the turtles. Beak movements revealed average ingestion rates of (mean ± SE) 0.27 ± 0.13 food items per minute and that feeding occurred predominantly during dives >4 m and during early morning and evening. Interestingly, the time spent feeding amounted to only 2.2% of the total observation time, whereas feeding‐associated dives added up to just above 10% of the total time. We thus established that loggerhead turtles in this area are specialised on brachyuran crabs, on which they prey with high success during the short time dedicated to foraging. This information strengthens our knowledge about turtle–prey and turtle–habitat interactions, which are essential data to delineate the role that turtles play in this and similar marine ecosystems. Moreover, since the same area is also intensively used by the regional bottom trawl fishery, our results have important conservation implications, because they clearly show the time of day and water depths for which fishing activity should be regulated to reduce the number of turtles that are currently being incidentally caught in this area.     

Performance of masonry enclosure walls: lessons learned from recent earthquakes

This paper discusses the issue of performance requirements and construction criteria for masonry enclosure and infill walls.Vertical building enclosures in European countries are very often constituted by non-load-bearing masonry walls, using horizontally perforated clay bricks.These walls are generally supported and confined by a reinforced concrete frame structure of columns and beams/slabs.Since these walls are commonly considered to be nonstructural elements and their influence on the structural response is ignored,their consideration in the design of structures as well as their connection to the adjacent structural elements is frequently negligent or insufficiently detailed.As a consequence,nonstructural elements,as for wall enclosures,are relatively sensitive to drift and acceleration demands when buildings are subjected to seismic actions. Many international standards and technical documents stress the need for design acceptability criteria for nonstructural elements,however they do not specifically indicate how to prevent collapse and severe cracking,and how to enhance the overall stability in the case of moderate to high seismic loading.Furthermore,a review of appropriate measures to improve enclosure wall performance and both in-plane and out-of-plane integrity under seismic actions is addressed.     

A log‐normal spectral analysis of inorganic grain‐size distributions from a Canadian boreal lake core: Towards refining depositional process proxy data from high latitude lakes

Better methods for interpreting grain‐size spectra will enhance current understanding of past transport–depositional processes. A high‐resolution inorganic grain‐size dataset has been measured from a freeze core extracted from ‘Alberta Lake E’ a boreal fresh water lake 40 km east of the Athabasca Oil Sands in north‐eastern Alberta, Canada. The grain‐size spectra are remarkably consistent throughout the core, exhibiting a structure comprising six persistent grain‐size distributions below ca 250 μm, plus a rare medium‐sand distribution. Automated deconvolution of the grain‐size spectra produced poor results. Constraining the modes of two of the distributions produced deconvolution solutions that were statistically excellent and consistent with the structure of each spectrum. Statistical analysis of the ‘constrained’ solutions indicates that deconvolution successfully extracted independent grain‐size populations. Conversely, the multimodal spectra generate traditional measures (for example, mean grain size) that are inconsistent combinations of different individual populations and thus are poor proxies of transport–depositional processes. Alberta Lake E is situated in a boreal wetland landscape where sediment delivery is dominated by overland flow transport during spring melt. This context means that the Alberta Lake E grain‐size spectra can be interpreted to reflect: (i) a bedload component transported during short‐duration high discharge events that reflect the intensity of the melt; and (ii) a finer suspended load component representing material whose magnitude is controlled by the volume of the spring melt. Stratigraphically, bedload and suspended load populations demonstrate different short‐wavelength and long‐wavelength cyclicity, suggesting that spring melt is likely to be driven by cyclic external forcing factors. The links between the grain‐size spectra and spring melt have potential for generating proxy records that better capture the external controls over spring melt in boreal systems and the risks associated with these energetic hydrodynamics. This is exemplified by the coarsest Alberta Lake E distributions, which indicate that more intense spring‐melt dynamics occurred in pre‐historical times.     

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.     

Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.