Simulation of maximum surface air temperature over India using the UK Met Office Global Seasonal (GloSea) Model

Summary A comparative study was performed to evaluate the performance of the UK Met Office’s Global Seasonal (GloSea) prediction General Circulation Model (GCM) for the forecast of maximum surface air temperature (T_max) over the Indian region using the model generated hindcast of 15-members ensemble for 16 years (1987–2002). Each hindcast starts from 1^st January and extends for a period of six months in each year. The model hindcast T_max is compared with T_max obtained from verification analysis during the hot weather season on monthly and seasonal scales from March to June. The monthly and seasonal model hindcast climatology of T_max from 240 members during March to June and the corresponding observed climatology show highly significant (above 99.9% level) correlation coefficients (CC) although the hindcast T_max is over-estimated (warm bias) over most parts of the Indian region. At the station level over New Delhi, although the forecast error (forecast-observed) at the monthly scale gradually increases from March to June, the forecast error at the seasonal scale during March to May (MAM) is found to be just 1.67 °C. The GloSea model also simulates well T_max anomalies on monthly and seasonal scales during March to June with the lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of bias corrected forecast (less than 1.2 °C), which is much less than the corresponding RMSE of climatology (reference) forecast. The anomaly CCs (ACCs) over the station in New Delhi are also highly significant (above 95% level) on monthly to seasonal time scales from March to June, except for April. The skill of the GloSea model for the seasonal forecast of T_max as measured from the ACC map and the bias corrected RMSE map is reasonably good during MAM and April to June (AMJ) with higher ACC (significant at 95% level) and lower RMSE (less than 1.5 °C) found over many parts of the Indian regions. Authors’ addresses: D. R. Pattanaik, H. R. Hatwar, G. Srinivasan, Y. V. Ramarao, India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, India; U. C. Mohanty, P. Sinha, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India; Anca Brookshaw, UK Met Office, UK.     

Studies of K-Ar dating and xenon from extinct radioactivities in breccia 14318; implications for early lunar history

The rare gases argon and xenon were studied intensively in lunar breccia 14318, one of a family of three Apollo 14 breccias exhibiting similarities, including substantial amounts of ‘parentless’ xenon from the spontaneous fission of extinct ²⁴⁴Pu. We made stepwise heatings on both unirradiated and pile-irradiated specimens. The isotopic composition of the xenon from fission was determined by a new method which invokes a minimum of assumptions; it is shown to be from ²⁴⁴Pu and almost certainly parentless. For example, the fission component, although not appreciably fractionated with respect to the trapped component during stepwise heating, has a low temperature character so that, relatively speaking, it appears to be more surficial than xenon emanating from uranium sites in the irradiated sample. We demonstrate that this effect is not an artifact of the neutron irradiation. The breccia contains abundant trapped argon with a high ${}^{40}\text{Ar}{}^{36}\text{Ar}$ ratio for lunar material—~14. Otherwise the argon is radiogenic and gives a convincing K-Ar age of 3.69 ± 0.09 b.y. by the stepwise ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar method, nearly in agreement with ages for other Apollo 14 breccias obtained in our laboratory and elsewhere. Rock 14301, another of the family of breccias and one which has been studied in other laboratories, contains similar trapped argon and parentless xenon. Unlike 14318 it also contains a conspicuous excess of ¹²⁹Xe from the radioactive decay of extinct ¹²⁹I. Implications of the parentless xenon from extinct sources, as seen in these different rocks, depend upon the model adopted for its evolution and storage. We present four different models, all of which are unsatisfactory in some respects, so that we are presently unable to narrow the question. We must stress that other Apollo 14 breccias, such as 14321, contain fission xenon from ²⁴⁴Pu which was apparently produced in situ.     

A GIS-Coupled Hydrological Model System for the Watershed Assessment of Agricultural Nonpoint and Point Sources of Pollution

This paper introduces AVSWAT, a GIS based hydrological system linking the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) water quality model and ArcView“ Geographic Information System software. The main purpose of AVSWAT is the combined assess‐ment of nonpoint and point pollution loading at the watershed scale. The GIS component of the system, in addition to the traditional functions of data acquisition, storage, organization and display, implements advanced analytical methods with enhanced flexibility to improve the hydrological characterization of a study watershed. Intuitive user friendly graphic interfaces, also part of the GIS component, have been developed to provide an efficient interaction with the model and the associated parameter databases, and ultimately to simplify water quality assessments, while maintaining and increasing their reliability. This is also supported by SWAT, the core of the system, a complex, conceptual, hydrologic, continuous model with spatially explicit parameterization, building upon the United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) modeling experience. A step‐by‐step example application for a watershed in Central Texas is also included to verify the capability and illustrate some of the characteristics of the system which has been adopted by many users around the world.     

Prediction in a socio-hydrological world

Water resource management involves public investments with long-ranging impacts that traditional prediction approaches cannot address. These are increasingly being critiqued because (1) there is an absence of feedbacks between water and society; (2) the models are created by domain experts who hand them to decision makers to implement; and (3) they fail to account for global forces on local water resources. Socio-hydrological models that explicitly account for feedbacks between water and society at multiple scales and facilitate stakeholder participation can address these concerns. However, they require a fundamental change in how we think about prediction. We suggest that, in the context of long-range predictions, the goal is not scenarios that present a snapshot of the world at some future date, but rather projection of alternative, plausible and co-evolving trajectories of the socio-hydrological system. This will both yield insights into cause–effect relationships and help stakeholders identify safe or desirable operating space.     

Hydrological modelling of the Vistula and Odra river basins using SWAT

This paper presents a large-scale application of the SWAT model for water balance and natural streamflow simulation in the entire basins of the Vistula and the Odra, covering most of the territory of Poland. A tailored calibration approach was designed to achieve satisfactory goodness-of-fit across a range of catchment sizes. Model calibration and evaluation driven by high-resolution climate data showed overall good behaviour for 80 benchmark catchments divided into eight clusters, and spatial evaluation for 30 gauges showed that the designed regionalization scheme performed well (median KGE of 0.76). Basin-averaged estimates of blue and green water flow and green water storage estimated using the calibrated model were 185, 517 and 206 mm, respectively. This study provides a basis for future work, such as assessing climate change impacts on hydrology, assessing flow alterations, and water quality simulation. The model output is publicly available through an online research data archive (doi:10.4121/uuid:b8ab4f5f-f692-4c93-a910-2947aea28f42).

EDITOR A. Castellarin

ASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel     

Reconstruction of the Late Holocene climate and environmental history from North Bolgoda Lake,Sri Lanka,using lipid biomarkers and pollen records

The catastrophic impact and unpredictability of the Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) over South Asia are evident from devastating floods, mudslides and droughts in one of the most densely populated regions of the globe. However, our understanding as to how the IOM has varied in the past, as well as its impact on local environments, remains limited. This is particularly the case for Sri Lanka, where erosional landscapes have limited the availability of well-stratified, high-resolution terrestrial archives. Here, we present novel data from an undisturbed sediment core retrieved from the coastal Bolgoda Lake. This includes the presentation of a revised Late Holocene age model as well as an innovative combination of pollen, source-specific biomarkers, and compound-specific stable carbon isotopes of n-alkanes to reconstruct the shifts in precipitation, salinity and vegetation cover. Our record documents variable climate between 3000 years and the present, with arid conditions c. 2334 and 2067 cal a bp. This extreme dry period was preceded and followed by more wet conditions. The high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstruction fills a major gap in our knowledge on the ramifications of IOM shifts across South Asia and provides insights during a time of major redistribution of dense human settlements across Sri Lanka.     

Development of Proxy Model for Hydraulic Fracturing and Seismic Wave Propagation Processes

Mathematical Geosciences - Characterization of discrete fracture networks is necessary for unconventional reservoir development, as they control the flow of fluids toward the hydraulically...     

Observations of the initial 3D flow from a ship's propeller

The present paper was aimed at presenting the time-averaged velocity and turbulence intensity at the initial plane from a ship's propeller. The flow characteristics of a ship's propeller jet are of particular interest for the researchers investigating the jet induced seabed damage as documented in the previous studies. Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) measurements show that the axial component of velocity is the main contributor to the velocity magnitude at the initial plane of a ship's propeller jet. The tangential component contributes to the rotation while the radial component which contributes to the diffusion, are the second and third largest contributors to the velocity magnitude. The maximum tangential and radial velocity components at the initial plane are approximately 82% and 14% of the maximum axial velocity component, respectively. The axial velocity distribution at the initial plane shows two peaked ridges with a low velocity core at the rotation axis. The turbulence intensity distribution shows a three-peaked profile at the initial plane.