Spatial Response to Major Volcanic Events in or about AD 536, 934 and 1258: Frost Rings and Other Dendrochronological Evidence from Mongolia and Northern Siberia: Comment on R. B. Stothers, ‘Volcanic Dry Fogs, Climate Cooling, and Plague Pandemics in Europe and the Middle East’ (Climatic Change, 42, 1999)

Hypothesized large-scale climatic extremes require verification from distantregions in order toconfirm the magnitude and timing of such events. Three of the most massivehypothesized volcanic events of the past two millennia, occurring in or aboutAD 536, 934 and1258, had profound climatic and demographic repercussions over much of Europe,the MiddleEast, and other areas, according to historical accounts recently described inStothers (1998, 1999,2000) as well as other research. Here we report on frost ring and otherdendrochronologicalevidence derived from a 1738-year tree-ring chronology from Mongolia andmillennial-scaletree-ring data from northern Siberia which demonstrate that these three eventsmay have alsoimpacted conditions in these distant regions.     

Abrupt changes as indicators of decadal climate variability

 A statistical test has revealed that abrupt regional climate changes are produced in a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Abrupt changes are detected over much of the globe although the occurrence frequency is small over the continents. Over the tropical Pacific Ocean and northern Pacific Ocean, surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) shift rapidly on decadal time scales. The regional climate changes presented here have been classified into three types. The first type consists of statistically significant shifts in SLP and statistically significant shifts in SAT which are of opposite sign, and which are reinforced through a positive feedback between the atmosphere and the ocean. The second type is for those occurrences where changes are of the same sign. The third type includes those with a significant shift in only one meteorological element. The second and third types are generally generated by changes in air pressure and wind fields induced by changes of the first type. For example, when SLP increases and sea surface temperature (SST) decreases abruptly in the tropical Pacific Ocean, it triggers abrupt regional changes in middle and high latitudes. The abrupt changes in the model climate have characteristics which are very similar to those of observed rapid shifts. Thus, it is concluded that abrupt changes are a predominant part of regional climate change on decadal time scales. Received: 11 February 1999 / Accepted: 18 May 2000     

Transport and deposition of large woody debris in streams: a flume experiment

Large woody debris (LWD) is an integral component of forested streams of the Pacific Northwest and elsewhere, yet little is known about how far wood is transported and where it is deposited in streams. In this paper, we report the results of flume experiments that examine interactions among hydraulics, channel geometry, transport distance and deposition of floating wood. These experiments were carried out in a 1.22-m-wide×9.14-m-long gravel bed flume using wooden dowels of various sizes as surrogate logs. Channel planforms were either self-formed or created by hand, and ranged from meanders to alternate bars. Floating pieces tended to orient with long axes parallel to flow in the center of the channel. Pieces were deposited where channel depth was less than buoyant depth, typically at the head of mid-channel bars, in shallow zones where flow expanded, and on the outside of bends. We hypothesize that the distance logs travel may be a function of the channel's debris roughness, a dimensionless index incorporating ratios of piece length and diameter to channel width, depth and sinuosity. Travel distance decreased as the ratio of piece length to both channel width and radius of curvature increased, but the relative importance of these variables changed with channel planform. Large pieces can move further than our debris roughness models predict if greater than 50% of the active channel area is deeper than the buoyant depth of the piece, or if momentum is high enough to carry pieces across shallows. Our debris roughness model allows first-order prediction of the amount of wood transport under various channel geometries.     

Hydrogeologic studies for nuclear-waste disposal in Sweden

Safety Report 1997 (SR 97) of the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company is a comprehensive performance assessment of three hypothetical radioactive waste repositories in Sweden. It includes hydrogeologic studies (data compilation, parameter synthesis, and groundwater flow modeling) to determine groundwater flow and the associated uncertainties for the three sites. This report reviews and compares the hydrogeologic characterization programs, the site characteristics, and the groundwater flow models used in the SR 97 performance assessment. Although differences in site-characterization programs tend to mask differences in site characteristics, the sites do have notable differences that affect the results of the performance assessment. The effects of model uncertainties evaluated by the variant cases appear to be smaller than the variability of results for the base case (best estimate of site conditions) of each site. Electronic Publication     

Sensitivity of a GCM simulation to subgrid infiltration and surface runoff

A subgrid parameterization of infiltration and surface runoff was evaluated using a land surface model coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model. Averaged over 5 year simulations, the subgrid parameterization resulted in significantly less infiltration of water into the soil compared to a simulation without subgrid hydrologic processes. As a result, the soils were drier, latent heat flux decreased, and surface air temperature increased. These results are consistent with other studies of subgrid hydrologic parameterizations, which also resulted in drier soils, decreased latent heat flux, and warmer surface temperatures. Several river basins were studied in detail. In the Amazon and Lena basins, the subgrid parameterization resulted in better annual runoff compared to observed annual river flow; surface air temperature was unchanged in the Amazon and better, compared to observations, in the Lena. In the Ob, Yenisey, and Amur basins, the subgrid parameterization resulted in too much annual runoff; July surface air temperature was unchanged or worse (Amur). Annual runoff for the Mississippi basin was better with the subgrid parameterization, but July surface air temperature was worse. These results suggest the utility of subgrid hydrologic parameterizations vary among river basins depending on the relative importance of Horton and Dunne runoff and the geologic factors affecting runoff generation.     

Simulations of precipitation and atmospheric circulation changes associated with warm SSTs: results from an ensemble of long term integrations with idealized anomalies

A general circulation model is used to simulate the atmospheric response to a prescribed, idealized time varying warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the equatorial Pacific characteristic of ENSO events. The model incorporates the full seasonal cycle and an ensemble of five anomaly simulations, each of 14 months duration, is performed and the results compared with those from a ten year control simulation involving climatological SSTs. In a test of the model, simulated perturbations to precipitation patterns are compared with the analysis by Ropelewski and Halpert which identifies regions where precipitation perturbations are associated with the ENSO cycle. Strong and statistically significant perturbations are simulated throughout much of the equatorial Pacific and the Australian region which agree with the analysis. Perturbations over the Americas and the Indian sub-continent show part agreement with observations, while elsewhere, at more remote and high latitude locations, there is less agreement, providing some indication of model limitations in simulating the hydrological cycle. Over the equatorial Pacific most of the anomalous precipitation is accounted for by moisture flux convergence. Only in the vicinity of the maximum anomaly, located in the eastern Pacific, do warmer SSTs contribute to the perturbed circulation. Elsewhere, anomalous wind speeds mainly determine anomalous heat fluxes. As a result, the large scale perturbations to wind, moisture and precipitation appear to be forced indirectly, rather than directly as assumed in simple ocean-atmosphere models.     

Experimental stream acidification — the influence of sediment and streambed vegetation

An acidification experiment was conducted on a small stream in the Loch Ard area of central Scotland. The stream was chosen because of its large, flow related, variation in pH (5.9-4.0). Two acid additions were made to approximately pH 3.5–3.7. The results indicated a strong correlation between labile aluminium and hydrogen, and a noticeable hysteresis in the response of calcium and hydrogen. It is hypothesised that divalent cation response is a result of ion-exchange mechanisms involving the streambed vegetation, with aluminium release resulting primarily from exchange reactions with streambed sediment stores. Data from a program of stream spot sampling have been analysed in an attempt to elucidate the contribution of different sources of aluminium under different flow conditions. Streambed sources of aluminium contribute significantly under low flow conditions; however, at high flow, additional sources of aluminium must contribute to match observed streamwater chemistry.     

Biomonitoring past salinity changes in an athalassic subarctic lake

A short sediment core was taken from a small saline lake located on an intermontane plateau in the central Yukon Territory, Canada. In July 1990, chemical analyses indicated that, although the lake was shallow (Z_max=1.1 m), it was also chemically stratified, with hyposaline (9.9 to 10.0 g L⁻¹) surface waters and slightly mesosaline (22.0 g L⁻¹) deeper waters. The surface water was dominated by Na⁺ and HCO ₃ ⁻ . To our knowledge, this is the northernmost athalassic saline lake yet recorded. Quantification of algal (diatom, chrysophyte, and pigment) and invertebrate (chironomid, ceratopogonid, andChaoborus) fossils at four stratigraphic levels indicated that the lake sediments preserved numerous biological indicators that could be used to infer recent lake development. Many of the taxa are found in other athalassic salt lakes. The most striking stratigraphic change was a remarkable drop in the species richness of diatoms and invertebrates in the recent sediments, which parallels the elimination of species characteristic of less saline conditions. Halophilous taxa dominate the most recent sediments, indicating the development of more saline conditions. At the same time, a significant shift in chrysophyte cyst composition was observed. Fossil carotenoids and chlorophylls indicated a decrease in total algal abundance in recent sediments, as green and blue-green algae replaced diatoms and chrysophytes. Together, these paleolimnological data suggest a recent shift to drier conditions or increased evaporation in the central Yukon Territory.     

Abrupt change in magma generation processes across the Central American arc in southeastern Guatemala: flux-dominated melting near the base of the wedge to decompression melting near the top of the wedge

Lavas erupted behind the volcanic front in southeastern Guatemala have many important distinctions from lavas erupted on the volcanic front. These include: generally higher MgO, Nb, Sr, TiO₂, and rare earth element concentrations; higher La/Yb and Nb/Y ratios; and lower Ba/La, La/Nb, Ba/Zr and Zr/Nb ratios. These major and trace element distinctions are caused by reduced fractionation during ascent and storage in the crust, lower degrees of melting in the source, and greatly reduced contributions from the subducted Cocos plate in the source. In addition, because all of these important distinctions are even borne in lavas erupted within 20 km of the front, there is little apparent petrogenetic continuity between front and behind-the-front magmas. What little geochemical continuity exists is in radiogenic isotopes: ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd falls across the arc, Pb isotopic ratios (except ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) rise across the arc, and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr rise across the arc after an initial discontinuity within 20 km of the front. These continuous across-arc changes in radiogenic isotopes are caused by increased contamination with older, more isotopically disparate rocks, away from the front. Once the effects of crustal contamination are removed, the remaining isotopic variability behind the front is non-systematic and reflects the inherent isotopic heterogeneity of the source, the mantle wedge. Geochemical disconnection in southeastern Guatemala suggests that behind-the-front magmas are produced by decompression melting near the top of the wedge, not by flux-dominated melting near the base of the wedge.