Combined electromagnetic, geochemical and thermal surveys of Taal volcano (Philippines) during the period 2005–2006

Since 1572, 33 phreatic to phreatomagmatic eruptions have occurred on Taal volcano (Philippines), some of them causing several hundred casualties. Considering the time delay between two consecutive eruptions, there is an 88% probability that Taal volcano should have already erupted. Since 1992, several phases of seismic activity have been recorded accompanied by ground deformation, opening of fissures, and surface activity. The volcanic activity of Taal appears to be controlled by dike injections and magma supply, buffered by a hydrothermal system that releases fluids and heat through boiling and subsequent steaming. In early 2005, a multidisciplinary project was launched for studying the hydrothermal activity. To map the hydrothermal system, combined surveys were carried out to investigate self-potential, total magnetic field, ground temperature and carbon dioxide soil degassing, along with satellite thermal imaging of the Main Crater Lake. The elevated temperatures and high concentrations of carbon dioxide, as well as electromagnetic anomalies, indicate large-scale hydrothermal degassing. This process is enhanced along the tectonic features (e.g., crater rim and faults) of the volcano, while active fissures opened along the E–W northern flank during the 1992–1994 seismic activity. Heat and fluids from the hydrothermal system are essentially released in the northern part of the crater, which is bounded to the South by a suspected NW–SE fault along which seismicity seems to take place, and dikes are thought to be intruded. During the January 2005 surveys, a new seismic crisis started, and the felt earthquakes prompted spontaneous evacuation of hundreds of inhabitants living on the volcano. Repeated surveys show changes of self-potential, total magnetic field, and ground temperature with time, without any noticeable spatial enlargement. These observations suggest that the northern flank located between the crater rim and the 1992–1994 fissures is connected with a deep thermal source in Main crater and is reactivated during seismic crises. This sector could be subjected to flank failure.     

Application of the method of dynamic calibration for IMS stations in regions with lower seismic activity

The Method of Dynamic Calibration (MDC) of stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS) was developed for calibrating regions where no underground nuclear explosions were carried out, with the purpose of providing conditions for implementation of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in nontrivial cases. Initially, the MDC had been presented in [Kedrov, 2001; Kedrov et al., 2001; Kedrov O.K. and Kedrov E.O., 2003] and then considered in detail in [Kedrov et al., 2008]. The core of MDC relates to adapting diagnostic parameters for the identification of underground nuclear explosions (UNE) and earthquakes elaborated for the region of Eurasia, taken as a basic region (BR), for other researched regions that differ from BR in the character of the attenuation of seismic waves. The unique characteristic of this method lies in the fact that calibration of diagnostic parameters with the help of attenuation coefficients b _Δ at varied source-station traces is implemented using only natural seismicity data within the limits of an explored region and does not require special underground chemical explosions. The MDC algorithm is implemented in the research program ”Kalibr”, which was tested by using the experimental data from Eurasia region. It is shown in this work that MDC can be used for calibration of regions where a very low level of natural seismicity is observed. According to the results of the calibration of diagnostic parameters at IMS stations in several regions of North America, Africa, and Asia, the approximate classification of propagation conditions for seismic signals at source-station traces in platform and tectonically active regions is made. The results for the development of two research programs, “Spektr” and “Signal”, are presented; this software is intended for automation of calculation procedures for spectral diagnostic parameters of UNEs’ and earthquakes’ identification by amplitude spectra of P waves and by the maximal amplitudes of P, S, and LR signals. The application of these programs allowed us to accelerate the whole calibration procedure for a particular source-station trace using the ”Kalibr” program.     

The influence of sediment resuspension on the degradation of phenanthrene in flow-through microcosms

The effect of sediment resuspension on the mineralization of phenanthrene was examined in microcosms and sediment slurries. In computer-controlled, flow-through microcosms, 14C-phenanthrene-amended sediments were resuspended into overlying oxic water at frequencies of 12, 4, 1, 0.25 and 0 d(-1). In slurry bottle experiments 14C-phenanthrene-amended sediments were continuously resuspended under oxic (excess air headspace) and anoxic (N2 headspace) conditions and mineralization was measured at periods from 2 h to 7 days. Our main findings were: (1) mineralization rate constants from the microcosms ranged from 0.001 to 0.01 d(-1) and increased with frequency of resuspension, (2) these rates fell between those measured in oxic and anoxic slurries and were predicted within a factor of 2.5 by a model in which mineralization depended on the degree of oxygen exposure, and (3) the phenanthrene-degrading bacterial community was more active in resuspended sediments incubated in the microcosms than in sediments which were not resuspended, or which were stored under refrigeration. We conclude from these experiments that the effects of sediment resuspension on phenanthrene degradation are consistent with a primary role of average oxygen exposure, and also an alteration in the PAH-degrading activity of microbial populations.     

Optimal cost‐effective topology of column bearings for reducing vertical acceleration demands in multistory base‐isolated buildings

Base‐isolation is regarded as one of the most effective methods for protecting the structural and nonstructural building elements from design level horizontal earthquake ground shaking. However, base‐isolation as currently practiced does not offer unlimited protection for these buildings, especially when the ground shaking includes a strong vertical component. The vulnerability of nonstructural systems in a base‐isolated building was made evident during recent shake table testing of a full‐scale five‐story base‐isolated steel moment frame where nonstructural system damage was observed following tests including vertical excitation. Past research efforts have attempted to achieve 3D isolation of buildings and nuclear structures by concentrating both the horizontal and vertical flexibility at the base of the building that are either quite limited or not economically viable. An approach whereby the vertical flexibility is distributed up the height of the building superstructure to passively reduce vertical acceleration demands in base‐isolated buildings is presented. The vertical flexibility is achieved by placing laterally restrained elastomeric ‘column’ bearings at one or more floor levels along the height of the building. To broadly investigate the efficacy of the vertically distributed flexibility concept and the trade‐off between mitigation and cost, a multi‐objective optimization study was conducted considering 3‐story, 9‐story, and 20‐story archetype buildings that aimed to minimize the median peak vertical floor acceleration demands and to minimize the direct cost of column bearings. Based on the results of the optimization study, a practical rule for determining the number of levels and locations of column bearings is proposed and evaluated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water resources management under dual uncertainties: a factorial fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming approach

In this study we propose a factorial fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (FFTSP) approach to support water resources management under dual uncertainties. The dual uncertainties in terms of fuzziness in modeling parameters and variability of α-cut levels are taken into account. As different α-cut levels are assigned to each fuzzy parameter (instead of an identical α-cut level), the effects of α-cut levels on fuzzy parameters can be considered. Factorial analysis method is integrated with fuzzy vertex method to tackle the interactive effects of fuzzy parameters within a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The effects of the interactions among fuzzy parameters under various α-cut level combinations can be examined. The FFTSP approach is applied to a water resources management case to demonstrate its applicability. The results show that this approach can not only give various optimized solutions according to decision makers’ confidence levels but also provide in-depth analyses for the effects of fuzzy parameters and their interactions on the solutions. In addition, the results show that the effects of diverse α-cut combinations should not be disregarded because the results may differ under some specific α-cut combinations. The dual sequential factorial analyses embedded in the FFTSP approach guarantee most variations in a system can be analyzed. Therefore water managers are able to gain sufficient knowledge to make robust decisions under uncertainty.     

Modeling the Global Coronal Field with Simulated Synoptic Magnetograms from Earth and the Lagrange Points $L_{3}$, L4$L_{4}$, and L5$L_{5}$

The solar photospheric magnetic flux distribution is key to structuring the global solar corona and heliosphere. Regular full-disk photospheric magnetogram data are therefore essential to our ability to model and forecast heliospheric phenomena such as space weather. However, our spatio-temporal coverage of the photospheric field is currently limited by our single vantage point at/near Earth. In particular, the polar fields play a leading role in structuring the large-scale corona and heliosphere, but each pole is unobservable for \({>}\,6\) months per year. Here we model the possible effect of full-disk magnetogram data from the Lagrange points \(L_{4}\) and \(L_{5}\), each extending longitude coverage by \(60^{\circ}\). Adding data also from the more distant point \(L_{3}\) extends the longitudinal coverage much further. The additional vantage points also improve the visibility of the globally influential polar fields. Using a flux-transport model for the solar photospheric field, we model full-disk observations from Earth/\(L_{1}\), \(L_{3}\), \(L_{4}\), and \(L_{5}\) over a solar cycle, construct synoptic maps using a novel weighting scheme adapted for merging magnetogram data from multiple viewpoints, and compute potential-field models for the global coronal field. Each additional viewpoint brings the maps and models into closer agreement with the reference field from the flux-transport simulation, with particular improvement at polar latitudes, the main source of the fast solar wind.     

Distributions of dissolved vitamin B12 and Co in coastal and open-ocean environments

Distributions of dissolved vitamin B₁₂ and total dissolved Co were measured to gain an understanding of the cycling of these interdependent micronutrients in six marine settings including; an upwelling location, a semi-enclosed bay, two urban coastal systems, and two open ocean locations. Along the coast of Baja California, Mexico, concentrations of B₁₂ and dissolved Co varied from 0.2 to 11 pM and 180 to 990 pM, respectively. At a nearby upwelling station, vitamin B₁₂ and Co concentrations ranged from 0.3 to 7.0 pM and 22 to 145 pM, and concentrations did not correlate with upwelling intensity. Concentrations of B₁₂ were highest within Todos Santos Bay, a semi-enclosed bay off the coast of Baja California, Mexico, during a dinoflagellate bloom, ranging from 2 to 61 pM, while Co concentrations varied between 61 and 194 pM. In the anthropogenically impacted Long Island Sound, NY, U.S.A., B₁₂ levels were between 0.1 and 23 pM and Co concentrations varied from 60 to 1900 pM. However, anthropogenic inputs were not evident in B₁₂ levels in the San Pedro Basin, located outside Los Angeles, Ca, U.S.A., where concentrations of B₁₂ were 0.2–1.8 pM, approximating observed open ocean B₁₂ concentrations. In the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, B₁₂ levels were 0.4–4 pM and 0.2–2 pM, respectively. Total Co concentrations in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic tended to be low; measuring 26–59 pM and 15–80 pM, respectively. These low Co concentrations may limit B₁₂ synthesis and its availability to B₁₂-requiring phytoplankton because the total dissolved Co pool is not necessarily entirely bioavailable.     

A tool to navigate overlaps in fragmented ocean governance

Implementation of marine ecosystem-based management requires improved understanding of existing governance, including gaps and overlaps resulting from fragmented management. Focusing on overlaps, this paper presents a technique using text analysis to assist in the identification of agencies and laws involved in overlaps from a system perspective. The overlaps analysis uses term frequency counts on ocean laws and regulations in conjunction with relevant agency authority. Such information delivered in a transparent user-friendly presentation can help policymakers and other constituents of ecosystem-based management to find existing overlaps as a step to facilitate improved coordination.     

Zooplankton and forage fish species off Peru: Large-scale bottom-up forcing and local-scale depletion

The Humboldt Current System, like all upwelling systems, has dramatic quantities of plankton-feeding fish, which suggested that their population dynamics may ‘drive’ or ‘control’ ecosystem dynamics. With this in mind we analysed the relationship between forage fish populations and their main prey, zooplankton populations. Our study combined a zooplankton sampling program (1961–2005) with simultaneous acoustic observations on fish from 40 pelagic surveys (1983–2005) conducted by the Peruvian Marine Research Institute (IMARPE) and landing statistics for anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) along the Peruvian coast from 1961 to 2005. The multi-year trend of anchoveta population abundance varied consistently with zooplankton biovolume trend, suggesting bottom-up control on anchovy at the population scale (since oceanographic conditions and phytoplankton production support the changes in zooplankton abundance). For a finer-scale analysis (km) we statistically modelled zooplankton biovolume as a function of geographical (latitude and distance from the 200-m isobath), environmental (sea surface temperature), temporal (year, month and time-of-day) and biological (acoustic anchovy and sardine biomass within 5 km of each zooplankton sample) covariates over all survey using both classification and regression trees (CART) and generalized additive models (GAM). CART showed local anchoveta density to have the strongest effect on zooplankton biovolume, with significantly reduced levels of biovolume for higher neighbourhood anchoveta biomass. Additionally, zooplankton biovolume was higher offshore than on the shelf. GAM results corroborated the CART findings, also showing a clear diel effect on zooplankton biovolume, probably due to diel migration or daytime net avoidance. Apparently, the observed multi-year population scale bottom-up control is not inconsistent with local depletion of zooplankton when anchoveta are locally abundant, since the latter effect was observed over a wide range of overall anchoveta abundance.