On the propagation of pressure-patterns: Part I

Summary The propagation speed of sinoidal troughs and wedges in a steady state flow is determined from consideration of the mass transport due to the bodily motion of the system. Fundamental propositions are established regarding the mutual motion of wind-, pressure-, temperature-, and density-fields.It is found that in a frictionless barotropic general flow, all perturbations are propagated with the same speed—the speed of the general current. In a baroclinic general flow a perturbation will only be propagated without dispersion if it has a specific (sinoidal) horizontal structure.When a sinoidal perturbation is embedded in a baroclinic general flow-field, it will be propagated as though by a barotropic flow with the sameeffective speed. The effective speed can be computed when the vertical structure of the perturbation and of the mean flow are known.It is frequently assumed that the speed of mean flow at some particular level (500 mb is often assumed) gives the «steering» of the surface perturbation by a baroclinic general flow, that is to say, a baroclinic flow steers a perturbation with the speed of an equivalent barotropic field. The present paper provides a rational basis for the concept of an equivalent barotropic flow, but it is to be remembered that the «steering level» does not depend uniquely on the vertical structure of the mean flow-field, but varies from perturbation to perturbation, being lower for shallow perturbations than for (vertically) deep ones.     

Some remarks on the thermodynamics of cyclones and anticyclones

Summary A quantitative theory of steady-state cyclones and anticyclones is based on a thermodynamic cycle, in which the surface frictional flow of air towards low pressure is compensated by an outflow aloft. It is shown that such a steady-state flow can only be sustained by a distribution of heat sources and sinks, depending on the surface windfield, the frictional drag, and the height of the return flow. When the two latter quantities are specified the steady-state surface wind- and pressure-pattern can be inferred from the disposition of heat sources and sinks in the atmosphere.Given the vertical profile of temperature and humidity it is possible to estimate the net heat added to or subtracted from different levels in the atmosphere by radiation processes. If, in addition, the balance between precipitation and evaporation is known, the distribution of sources and sinks in the free atmosphere may be determined, and this procedure may be made largely routine with such aids as the radiation chart. Hence it is possible to infer the structure, intensity and size of an equilibrium surface pressure-field from the computed disposition of sources and sinks in the atmosphere. In the future it should be possible to carry through such an analysis as part of routine forecasting procedure. It is shown that the surface pressure contrast in such monsoonal systems as the Siberian Winter High is of the order called for by the thermodynamic theory. The sustaining source and sink intensities needed for cyclones and anticyclones of average size and pressure-contrast are of the order of those occurring in nature.Cyclones and anticyclones are conveniently classified according to the nature of the sustaining sources or sinks. In particular, shallow systems, cold highs and warm lows are associated with low level sinks or sources, while systems of great vertical extent, warm highs and cold lows, are associated with sinks and sources at high level.

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Zusammenfassung Eine quantitative Theorie stationärer Zyklonen und Antizyklonen wird auf einen thermodynamischen Kreisprozeß, basiert, in dem die reibungsbedingte Luftströmung an der Erdoberfläche gegen das Tiefdruckzentrum durch ein Abfließen in der Höhe kompensiert wird. Es wird gezeigt, daß eine solche stationäre Strömung nur durch eine Verteilung von Wärmequellen und Sinkstellen aufrecht erhalten werden kann, die durch das Windfeld am Boden, die Reibungsverzögerung und die Höhe des Rückkehrstromes bedingt ist. Wenn die zwei letztgenannten Größen bestimmt sind, kann aus der Verteilung der Wärmequellen und Sinkstellen in der Atmosphäre auf das Wind- und Druckfeld des stationären Zustandes am Boden geschlossen werden.Aus dem Vertikalprofil von Temperatur und Feuchtigkeit ist es möglich, den durch Strahlungsvorgänge in verschiedenen Höhen erzeugten Wärmeüberschuß oder-verlust abzuschätzen. Wenn außerdem die Bilanz zwischen Niederschlag und Verdunstung bekannt ist, kann auch die Verteilung der Quellen und Sinkstellen in der Atmosphäre bestimmt werden und dieses Verfahren kann auf Grund von Strahlungskarten Eingang in die tägliche Praxis finden. Damit ist es möglich, aus der berechneten Verteilung von Quellen und Sinkstellen Schlüsse auf die Struktur, die Intensität und die Ausdehnung eines im Gleichgewicht befindlichen Druckfeldes zu ziehen. In Zukunft mag sich auch die Möglichkeit ergeben, eine solche Analyse als Teil des täglichen Wetterdienstes durchzuführen.Es wird gezeigt, daß die Druckunterschiede am Boden in solchen Monsunsystemen wie dem sibirischen Winterhoch von der gleichen Größenordnung sind, wie sie sich aus der thermodynamischen Theorie voraussagen lassen. Die Intensität von Quellen und Sinkstellen, die in der freien Atmosphäre auftreten, hat die richtige Größe, um die Aufrechterhaltung von Zyklonen und Antizyklonen mit den Dimensionen und Druckunterschieden zu erklären, wie sie in der Natur beobachtet werden.Zyklonen und Antizyklonen werden praktischerweise auf Grund der Beschaffenheit der Quellen oder Sinkstellen eingeteilt, die sie aufrecht erhalten. Im speziellen sind seichte Systeme, wie Kältehoch und Wärmetief, mit Quellen oder Sinkstellen im tieferen Niveau verknüpft, während Systeme mit großer Vertikalerstreckung, wie Wärmehoch und Kältetief, mit Quellen oder Sinkstellen in größerer Höhe verbunden sind.

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Résumé On développe une théorie quantitative des dépressions et anticyclones stationnaires sur la base d'un cycle thermodynamique fermé dans lequel le courant soumis au frottement et dirigé vers le centre dépressionnaire est compensé par un écoulement divergent en altitude. On montre qu'un tel système stationnaire ne peut se maintenir que par une répartition des sources et des puits de chaleur conditionnée par le champ de vent au sol, le retard dû au frottement et l'altitude du courant de retour. Si les deux dernières grandeurs sont déterminées, on peut connaître le champ de vent et de pression de l'état stationnaire au sol à partir de la répartition des sources chaudes et des puits dans l'atmosphère.Grâce au profil vertical de température et d'humidité, il est possible d'évaluer l'excès ou le défaut de chaleur produits par les processus radiatifs à différents niveaux. Si en outre le bilan entre les précipitations et l'évaporation est connu, on peut aussi déterminer la distribution des sources et des puits dans l'atmosphère et ce procédé pourra entrer dans le travail de routine à l'aide de cartes de rayonnement. Ainsi il est possible, à partir de la distribution calculée des sources et des puits, de tirer des conclusions sur la structure, l'intensité et l'étendue d'un champ de pression en équilibre. On peut envisager dans l'avenir la possibilité d'adjoindre une telle analyse à la prévision journalière du temps.On montre que les différences de pression au sol dans des systèmes de mousson tels que celui de l'anticyclone hivernal sibérien sont de l'ordre de grandeur prévu par la théorie thermodynamique. L'intensité des sources et des puits qui apparaissent dans l'atmosphère libre a la valeur voulue pour entretenir les dépressions et les anticyclones avec les dimensions et les différences de pression que l'on observe dans la nature.On peut classer les dépressions et les anticyclones d'une manière pratique d'après la nature des sources et des puits qui les entretiennent. En particulier, des systèmes de peu d'épaisseur comme des anticyclones froids et des dépressions chaudes sont liés à des sources et des puits situés à basse altitude; par contre des systèmes de grande ampleur verticale comme des anticyclones chauds et des dépressions froides sont liés à des sources ou des puits à haute altitude.

     

Global carbon budgets and the viability of new fossil fuel projects

Policy-makers of some fossil fuel-endowed countries wish to know if a given fossil fuel supply project is consistent with the global carbon budget that would prevent a 2 °C temperature rise. But while some studies have identified fossil fuel reserves that are inconsistent with the 2 °C carbon budget, they have not shown the effect on fossil fuel production costs and market prices. Focusing on oil, we develop an oil pricing and climate test model to which we apply future carbon prices and oil consumption from several global energy-economy-emissions models that simulate the energy supply and demand effects of the 2 °C carbon budget. Our oil price model includes key oil market attributes, notably upper and lower market share boundaries for different oil producer categories, such as OPEC. Using the distribution of the global model results as an indicator of uncertainty about future carbon prices and oil demand, we estimate the probability that a new investment of a given oil source category would be economically viable under the 2 °C carbon budget. In our case study of Canada’s oil sands, we find a less than 5% probability that oil sands investments, and therefore new oil pipelines, would be economically viable over the next three decades under the 2 °C carbon budget. Our sensitivity analysis finds that if OPEC agreed to reduce its market share to 30% by 2045, a significant reduction from its steady 40–45% of the past 25 years, then the probability of viable oil sands expansion rises to 30%.     

Vulnerability and its discontents: the past,present, and future of climate change vulnerability research

The agri-food sector must adapt to changes in climate variability, while also helping to mitigate climate change. Measures termed ‘triple-win’ mitigate and adapt to climate change, while also improving soil health, thereby increasing yields. These measures might appear to be the easiest to implement, but in practice, barriers prevent full realisation. This study aims to move beyond previous research efforts that identify and categorise barriers by (i) revealing hidden barriers, (ii) understanding the interactions between barriers and (iii) exploring ways to address barriers. A case study focusing on crop rotation as a triple-win strategy in Ukraine demonstrates how a participant-driven iterative research approach can achieve these objectives. During semi-structured interviews with farmers and stakeholders, crop rotation emerged as an area of considerable dissensus with stakeholders commonly citing the greedy behaviour of producers as the problem. Further discussion indicated that the political economy of Ukraine caused financial constraints for producers and Q methodology allowed for additional clarity on the opposing views of crop rotation. Three factors emerged: producer insecurity, national insecurity and business insecurity. These three perspectives reveal contrasting priorities with producer insecurity and business insecurity concerned with the conditions under which producers must operate, while national insecurity has a focus on improving agricultural production to benefit the nation. Consensus statements across all factors could provide first steps to addressing barriers and an opportunity to open discussions amongst stakeholders. Finally, barriers arising from political processes demonstrate that climate policy needs to be integrated with other sector-specific policy decisions.     

Is public awareness and perceived threat of climate change associated with governmental mitigation targets?

Social scientists and science communicators are concerned about the apparent discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change (Anderegg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109, 2010; Doran and Zimmerman EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 90:22–3, 2009) and the general public’s views (Knight Environ Sociol 2:101–113, 2016; Lee et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:1014–1020, 2015). It is reasoned that increased public awareness and perceived threat of climate change may pressure governments to enact policy to counteract climate change (e.g. setting stringent carbon emissions targets). Despite a logical link between public awareness and government-set emissions targets, this relationship remains untested. We examined the relationship between public awareness about and perceived threat of climate change and governmental emissions targets across 71 countries and 1 region. We found a positive association between the proportions of a country’s population that are aware of climate change and the unconditional emissions reduction targets set by that country in the Paris Agreement (Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, the proportion of people in a country who perceive climate change as a personal threat was not associated with higher emissions reduction targets. Our results suggest that public awareness may be an important part of garnering the public support required for policies designed to mitigate climate change to succeed.     

Projecting impacts of carbon dioxide emission reductions in the US electric power sector: evidence from a data-rich approach

Conditional forecasts of US economic and energy sector activity are developed using information from a dynamic, data-rich environment. The forecasts are conditional on a path for carbon dioxide emissions outlined in the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) and are estimated based on a factor-augmented autoregressive framework. Results suggest that overall growth will be slower under the CPP than it would otherwise; however, economic growth and CO₂ reductions can be achieved simultaneously. There are little differences between unconditional (business-as-usual) and conditional forecasts of the variables in the early part of the forecast period; the impacts of the CPP are small while the constraints on carbon dioxide are less stringent. The results serve as a data-driven complement to structural analyses of policy change in the energy sector.